Response error and processing biases in confidence judgment

Previous studies showed that random error can explain overconfidence effects typically observed in the literature. One of these studies concluded that, after accounting for random error effects in the data, there is little support for cognitive‐processing biases in confidence elicitation. In this paper, we investigate more closely the random error explanation for overconfidence. We generated data from four models of confidence and then estimated the magnitude of random error in the data. Our results show that, in addition to the true magnitude of random error specified in the simulations, the error estimates are influenced by important cognitive‐processing biases in the confidence elicitation process. We found that random error in the response process can account for the degree of overconfidence found in calibration studies, even when that overconfidence is actually caused by other factors. Thus, the error models say little about whether cognitive biases are present in the confidence elicitation process. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Defining, Measuring, and Comparing Organisational Cultures

La littérature portant sur la culture des organisations souffre d'un manque manifeste d'enquêtes extensives débouchant sur des études comparatives. Afin de rendre plus comparables les cultures organisationnelles, nous proposons une définition et une série de dimensions. La culture organisationnelle renverrait aux perceptions communes des pratiques de travail dans le cadre des unités constitutives des organisations. A l'examen d'études empiriques, les cinq dimensions suivantes nous sont apparues: autonomie, orientation externe, coordination interdépartementale, orientation vers les ressources humaines et orientation vers le développement. L'utilisation de cette définition et de ces dimensions générales devrait faciliter la comparaison des cultures organisationnelles et l'accumulation de résultats.
Within the body of organisation culture literature, there is a conspicuous absence of large-scale studies reporting on comparative studies. In order to increase comparability of organisational cultures we propose a definition and a set of dimensions. Organisational culture is defined as shared perceptions of organisational work practices within organisational units. On the basis of empirical studies we discerned the following five dimensions: autonomy, external orientation, interdepartmental coordination, human resource orientation, and improvement orientation. Use of this definition and a set of such generic dimensions would facilitate the comparison of organisational cultures and the accumulation of research findings.     

The Struggle to Prevent and Evaluate: Application of Population Attributable Risk and Preventive Fraction to Suicide Prevention Researach

Population attributable risk (PAR) estimates have been used in suicide research to evaluate the impact of psychosocial and socioeconomic risk factors, including affective disorders, traumatic life events, and unemployment. A parallel concept of preventive fraction (PF), allowing for estimation of the impact of protective factors and effectiveness of preventive interventions, is practically unknown in suicidology. The study authors discuss the application of both concepts to suicide research and prevention, and review literature on the subject. Despite several methodological and conceptual limitations, both PAR and PF are valuable instruments to inform development and evaluation of suicide prevention programs.     

Influence of Connectives on Language Comprehension: Eye tracking Evidence for Incremental Interpretation

An eye-tracking experiment investigated whether incremental interpretation applies to interclausal relationships. According to Millis and Just's (1994) delayed-integration hypothesis, interclausal relationships are not computed until the end of the second clause, because the processor needs to have two full propositions before integration can occur. We investigated the processing of causal and diagnostic sentences (Sweetser, 1990; Tversky & Kahneman, 1982) that contained the connective because . Previous research (Traxler, Sanford, Aked, & Moxey, 1997) has demonstrated that readers have greater difficulty processing diagnostic sentences than causal sentences. Our results indicated that difficulty processing diagnostic sentences occurred well before the end of the second clause. Thus comprehenders appear to compute interclausal relationships incrementally.     

Cardiovascular reactivity to psychological stress in aerobically trained versus untrained mild hypertensives and normotensives

Cardiovascular reactivity to video game and mental arithmetic stressors was compared among three groups of men: aerobically trained mild hypertensives, untrained mild hypertensives, and a comparison group of untrained normotensives. Relative to the untrained hypertensives, the trained hypertensives reacted to the video game with marginally smaller systolic blood pressure and diastolic blood pressure, but there were no significant differences between these groups in reactivity during the mental arithmetic task. Comparisons between each hypertensive group and the normotensive group showed that blood pressure (BP) reactivity of normotensives during the video game was generally similar to that of trained hypertensives but smaller than that of untrained hypertensives. These results indicate that aerobic training, which has been found to reduce resting BP in mild hypertensives, may also exert a favorable impact in reducing cardiovascular reactivity of hypertensives during some stressful situations.     

Local Opposition to the Construction of a Nuclear Power Station: Differential Salience of Impacts1

This study examined attitudes among 290 residents of three villages in South-West England toward proposals to build a nuclear power station nearby. Respondents were split into four groups according to whether they were neutral or in favor of a new power station either locally or elsewhere in the UK (Group PN), against one locally but neutral or pro elsewhere (LO), or moderately (MO) or extremely (XO) against a new power station both locally and elsewhere. The perceived impact of a nuclear power station on local life was assessed by 30 items. The PN group expected most benefit or least damage on all 30 items. On a majority of items the mean ratings of the LO group resembled those of the XO's more than did those of the MO's. A stepwise discriminant analysis yielded two interpretable functions. The first reflected a trend over the groups in the order PN-LO-MO-XO and was marked particularly by concern with impact on personal peace of mind. The second fuction discriminated the LO's from the other groups, suggesting that they were relatively less concerned with specifically nuclear risks, but more concerned with environmental conservation.     

The Construct Validity of Assertion: Contributions of Four Assessment Procedures and Norman's Personality Factors

ABSTRACT The construct validity of assertion was analyzed in three independent correlational studies The convergence of self-reported, laboratory roleplayed, self-observed, and peer-rated measures was examined, as well as their relationship to Norman's peer-rated five personality factors of extraversion, agreeableness, conscientiousness, emotional stability, and culture Twenty-three and 29 undergraduate students participated in Studies 1 and 2, respectively In general, results showed poor convergence among assertiveness measures even when increasing the representativeness and reliability of the role-played laboratory and self-observed measures, as in Study 2 In Study 3, the role-playing test was abandoned and 45 subjects served as peers for one another The results of Study 3 supported the prediction that assertiveness measures showed at least moderate convergence, in addition there were significant relationships between assertiveness and extraversion and between peer-rated assertiveness and agreeableness, conscientiousness, and culture The relative contribution of each assessment procedure to the construct validity of assertion is discussed