An availability bias in professional judgment

When branches of a fault tree are pruned, subjects do not fully transfer the probability of those branches to the ‘all other’ category. This underestimation of the catch-all probability has been interpreted as an ‘out of sight, out of mind’ form of the availability bias. The present work replicates this underestimation bias with professional managers. It then demonstrates the effectiveness of a corrective tactic, extending the tree by generating additional causes, and also reveals that more easily retrieved short-term causes dominate the generation process. These results do not differ across managers' culture, education or experience. After evaluating such alternative explanations as category redefinition, we conclude that availability is a major cause, though possibly not the sole cause, of the underestimation bias.     

Multilevel Heterogeneous Factor Analysis and Application to Ecological Momentary Assessment

Psychometrika - Ansari et al. (Psychometrika 67:49–77, 2002) applied a multilevel heterogeneous model for confirmatory factor analysis to repeated measurements on individuals. While the mean...     

Heterogeneous factor analysis models: A bayesian approach

Multilevel factor analysis models are widely used in the social sciences to account for heterogeneity in mean structures. In this paper we extend previous work on multilevel models to account for general forms of heterogeneity in confirmatory factor analysis models. We specify various models of mean and covariance heterogeneity in confirmatory factor analysis and develop Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) procedures to perform Bayesian inference, model checking, and model comparison.We test our methodology using synthetic data and data from a consumption emotion study. The results from synthetic data show that our Bayesian model perform well in recovering the true parameters and selecting the appropriate model. More importantly, the results clearly illustrate the consequences of ignoring heterogeneity. Specifically, we find that ignoring heterogeneity can lead to sign reversals of the factor covariances, inflation of factor variances and underappreciation of uncertainty in parameter estimates. The results from the emotion study show that subjects vary both in means and covariances. Thus traditional psychometric methods cannot fully capture the heterogeneity in our data.     

Patterns of Emotional Responses and Behavioural Consequences of Dissatisfaction

Quels sont les modèles de réponses émotionnelles à une expérience de consommation insatisfaisante et quelle est la relation entre ces modèles et les réponses du consommateur suite à l'achat? Lors d' une simulation mentale, les sujets ont fait part de leurs réponses émotives et de leurs cognitions postérieures à l' achat, de leur satisfaction et de leurs intentions à la suite de la constatation d' une carence fondamentale. On a observé quatre modèles discriminables de réponses émotionnelles dans un espace tridimensionnel. Les cognitions traitant du problème, les jugements de satisfaction, la sortie, la plainte, de vive voix, et la perte de clientèle différaient entre les modèles émotionnels; en outre deux dimensions structurelles (acceptation/calme et colère/surprise) rendaient compte d' une grande partie de la variance des réponses comportementales du consommateur à l' insatisfaction.
Patterns of emotional responses to a dissatisfactory consumption experience and the relationship between these patterns and consumer post-purchase responses are investigated. In a mental simulation, participants reported their emotional responses and post-purchase cognitions, satisfaction, and behavioural intentions following a core service failure. Four discriminable patterns of emotional responses, positioned in a tridimensional space, were observed. Problem-handling cognitions, satisfaction judgements, and exit, voice, word-of-mouth, and loyalty intentions were found to differ among emotional patterns, with two structural dimensions, acceptance/calmness and anger/surprise, accounting for most of the variation in consumer behavioural responses to dissatisfaction.     

Mixing emotions: The use of humor in fear advertising

Fear is used to advertise many products, services, and causes such as antismoking, sunscreen usage, and safe driving. Past research indicates that high levels of fear tension arousal can prompt defensive responses in the audience, which, in turn, can reduce the persuasive effect of the ad. We show in two studies that humor can reduce these defensive responses and hence increase the persuasiveness of fear advertising. Specifically, we show that increasing the level of fear tension arousal decreases persuasion when humor is absent but increases persuasion when humor is present. Further, this interaction of humor and fear tension arousal is mediated by defensive responses related to message elaboration and vulnerability to threat. Our results suggest that the effectiveness of fear advertising can be increased by adding an element of humor to the ad. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Consumers' Affective Response to Delays at Different Phases of a Service Delivery1

A field experiment was conducted in an educational setting to investigate affective reactions occurring at different phases of the delivery of a service. An eight-minute delay caused more negative affective reactions when it occurred either before the service started (preprocess) or after the service had terminated (postprocess) than when it occurred in the middle of the service encounter (in-process). No differences were observed for positive affect. Field theory is proposed as a theoretical framework to account for the results, and practical applications for addressing the social problem of structuring waiting environments are discussed.     

Feminists Need to Look Beyond Evolutionary Psychology for Insights into Human Reproductive Strategies: A Commentary

The Sex Roles: Feminist Reappraisals of Evolutionary Psychology issue that addressed evolutionary psychology’s Sexual Strategies Theory is enlightening for feminists as well as those scholars who examine men and women’s behavior. As several articles in this issue show, there are mixed results in support of this theory. While some feminists may want to conclude that this an indication of the limited influence evolution and biology has on gendered behavior, the mixed results rather may be due to problems that are foundational to evolutionary psychology itself. For those interested in evolutionary perspectives of men and women’s behavior, they should look beyond evolutionary psychology and examine what evolutionary biology and behavioral ecology can provide to our understanding of reproductive strategies. This is evident in feminist and female evolutionists’ works that have created a new model of sexual dialectics, begun the retesting of A. J. Bateman’s foundational work that underlies parental investment theory and Sexual Strategies Theory, and provided new evidence of phenotypic and behavioral plasticity. This research has called into question past assumptions of male dominance and female passivity in mating, and continues to challenge evolutionary psychology’s claim that based on Sexual Strategies Theory, there are evolved psychological gender differences between men and women in their desire for short-term mating opportunities and sexual variety that are rooted in our evolutionary past and not very responsive to the current environments within which men and women are making these reproductive decisions.     

Resolving Power of the Perceptual-and Sensorimotor Systems in 6- to 10-Year-Old Children

Children aged 6 to 10 were tested on their ability to move accurately and to perceptually evaluate their motor response. Subjects performed a directional and an amplitude visuo-manual aiming task without vision of their moving limb. They were asked to correct their error, after completion of their movements, only if they felt they were not accurate. Terminal aiming errors and correction responses (adjustments) were analyzed, and threshold detection was determined relative to terminal aiming error. Action accuracy and evaluation of action accuracy are two abilities that do not develop synchronously. Moreover, the relationship between these abilities depends on whether accuracy and direction or amplitude are required. Amplitude undergoes more corrections than direction, suggesting that the spatial system of reference involved depends more upon the coding of the final position than on direction. Two spatial comparators, operating on the basis of two types of evaluation, seem to have a variably distinct contribution to movement and perception accuracy, according to age.     

Reciprocal Markov Modeling of Feedback Mechanisms Between Emotion and Dietary Choice Using Experience-Sampling Data

With intensively collected longitudinal data, recent advances in the experience-sampling method (ESM) benefit social science empirical research, but also pose important methodological challenges. As traditional statistical models are not generally well equipped to analyze a system of variables that contain feedback loops, this paper proposes the utility of an extended hidden Markov model to model reciprocal the relationship between momentary emotion and eating behavior. This paper revisited an ESM data set (Lu, Huet, &; Dube, 2011 Lu, J., Huet, C., &; Dubé, L. (2011). Emotional reinforcement as a protective factor for healthy eating in home settings. The American Journal of Clinical Nutrition, 94(1), 254–261. http://dx.doi.org/10.3945/ajcn.110.006361[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) that observed 160 participants' food consumption and momentary emotions 6 times per day in 10 days. Focusing on the analyses on feedback loop between mood and meal-healthiness decision, the proposed reciprocal Markov model (RMM) can accommodate both hidden (“general” emotional states: positive vs. negative state) and observed states (meal: healthier, same or less healthy than usual) without presuming independence between observations and smooth trajectories of mood or behavior changes. The results of RMM analyses illustrated the reciprocal chains of meal consumption and mood as well as the effect of contextual factors that moderate the interrelationship between eating and emotion. A simulation experiment that generated data consistent with the empirical study further demonstrated that the procedure is promising in terms of recovering the parameters.