An availability bias in professional judgment

When branches of a fault tree are pruned, subjects do not fully transfer the probability of those branches to the ‘all other’ category. This underestimation of the catch-all probability has been interpreted as an ‘out of sight, out of mind’ form of the availability bias. The present work replicates this underestimation bias with professional managers. It then demonstrates the effectiveness of a corrective tactic, extending the tree by generating additional causes, and also reveals that more easily retrieved short-term causes dominate the generation process. These results do not differ across managers' culture, education or experience. After evaluating such alternative explanations as category redefinition, we conclude that availability is a major cause, though possibly not the sole cause, of the underestimation bias.     

Local and global factors of similarity in visual search

Effects of the similarity between target and distractors in a visual search task were investigated in several experiments. Both familiar (numerals and letters) and unfamiliar (connected figures in a 5 × 5 matrix) stimuli were used. The observer had to report on the presence or absence of a target among a variable number of homogeneous distractors as fast and as accurately as possible. It was found that physical difference had the same clear effect on processing time far familiar and for unfamiliar stimuli: processing time decreased monotonically with increasing physical difference. Distractors unrelated to the target and those related to the target by a simple transformation (180° rotation, horizontal or vertical reflection) were also compared, while the physical difference was kept constant. For familiar stimuli, transformational relatedness increased processing time in comparison with that fort unrelated stimulus pairs. It was further shown in a scaling experiment that this effect could be accounted for by the amount of perceived similarity of the target-distractor pairs. For unfamiliar stimuli, transformational relatedness did have a smaller and less pronounced effect. Various comparable unrelated distractors resulted in a full range of processing times. Results from a similarity scaling experiment correlated well with the outcome of the experiments with unfamiliar stimuli. These results are interpreted in terms of an underlying continuum of perceived similarity as the basis of the speed of visual search, rather than a dichotomy of parallel versus serial processing.     

Multilevel Heterogeneous Factor Analysis and Application to Ecological Momentary Assessment

Psychometrika - Ansari et al. (Psychometrika 67:49–77, 2002) applied a multilevel heterogeneous model for confirmatory factor analysis to repeated measurements on individuals. While the mean...     

Associations of social relationships with consultation for symptoms of depression: a community study of depression in older men and women in Québec

To assess associations between social relationships and consultation for symptoms of depression, data from a representative sample of 2,811 French-speaking community-dwelling older adults in Québec were used. Less than half of the older adults meeting DSM criteria for depression (N = 379; 47.1%) had sought consultation about their depression-relevant symptoms in the preceding 12 months. Having a cohabitant partner or having children were not associated with frequency of consultation for women. Men without a partner tended to consult more frequently than men with a cohabiting partner (OR = 2.5; 95% CI = 0.81, 7.88). None of the men without a confidant had consulted. Among the 67 men with a confidant, consultation was more frequent among those not cohabiting with a partner (70%) than among those with a cohabiting partner (46%). The influence of social relationships on consultation for depression differed in men and women in this population of depressed elderly people in Québec.     

Characterizing belief bias in syllogistic reasoning: A hierarchical Bayesian meta-analysis of ROC data

The belief-bias effect is one of the most-studied biases in reasoning. A recent study of the phenomenon using the signal detection theory (SDT) model called into question all theoretical accounts of belief bias by demonstrating that belief-based differences in the ability to discriminate between valid and invalid syllogisms may be an artifact stemming from the use of inappropriate linear measurement models such as analysis of variance (Dube et al., Psychological Review, 117(3), 831–863, 2010). The discrepancy between Dube et al.’s, Psychological Review, 117(3), 831–863 (2010) results and the previous three decades of work, together with former’s methodological criticisms suggests the need to revisit earlier results, this time collecting confidence-rating responses. Using a hierarchical Bayesian meta-analysis, we reanalyzed a corpus of 22 confidence-rating studies (N =?993). The results indicated that extensive replications using confidence-rating data are unnecessary as the observed receiver operating characteristic functions are not systematically asymmetric. These results were subsequently corroborated by a novel experimental design based on SDT’s generalized area theorem. Although the meta-analysis confirms that believability does not influence discriminability unconditionally, it also confirmed previous results that factors such as individual differences mediate the effect. The main point is that data from previous and future studies can be safely analyzed using appropriate hierarchical methods that do not require confidence ratings. More generally, our results set a new standard for analyzing data and evaluating theories in reasoning. Important methodological and theoretical considerations for future work on belief bias and related domains are discussed.     

Heterogeneous factor analysis models: A bayesian approach

Multilevel factor analysis models are widely used in the social sciences to account for heterogeneity in mean structures. In this paper we extend previous work on multilevel models to account for general forms of heterogeneity in confirmatory factor analysis models. We specify various models of mean and covariance heterogeneity in confirmatory factor analysis and develop Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) procedures to perform Bayesian inference, model checking, and model comparison.We test our methodology using synthetic data and data from a consumption emotion study. The results from synthetic data show that our Bayesian model perform well in recovering the true parameters and selecting the appropriate model. More importantly, the results clearly illustrate the consequences of ignoring heterogeneity. Specifically, we find that ignoring heterogeneity can lead to sign reversals of the factor covariances, inflation of factor variances and underappreciation of uncertainty in parameter estimates. The results from the emotion study show that subjects vary both in means and covariances. Thus traditional psychometric methods cannot fully capture the heterogeneity in our data.     

Abstinence and well-being among members of Alcoholics Anonymous: personal experience and social perceptions

The authors examined the subjective experience of well-being (WB) among abstinent Alcoholics Anonymous (AA) members and social perceptions of an abstinent alcoholic's WB among 3 nonalcoholic French-Canadian samples: male police officers, Catholic nuns, and university women. The short-term abstinent AA members, along with the university women, reported the lowest self-ratings of WB, whereas the Catholic nuns reported the highest. However, among the abstinent AA members, the level of WB was positively related to the length of abstention. The 3 nonalcoholic groups evaluated an abstinent AA member more positively than a nonabstinent alcoholic. These evaluations of an abstinent AA member converged with the AA members' self-evaluations on the measure of WB.     

Patterns of Emotional Responses and Behavioural Consequences of Dissatisfaction

Quels sont les modèles de réponses émotionnelles à une expérience de consommation insatisfaisante et quelle est la relation entre ces modèles et les réponses du consommateur suite à l'achat? Lors d' une simulation mentale, les sujets ont fait part de leurs réponses émotives et de leurs cognitions postérieures à l' achat, de leur satisfaction et de leurs intentions à la suite de la constatation d' une carence fondamentale. On a observé quatre modèles discriminables de réponses émotionnelles dans un espace tridimensionnel. Les cognitions traitant du problème, les jugements de satisfaction, la sortie, la plainte, de vive voix, et la perte de clientèle différaient entre les modèles émotionnels; en outre deux dimensions structurelles (acceptation/calme et colère/surprise) rendaient compte d' une grande partie de la variance des réponses comportementales du consommateur à l' insatisfaction.
Patterns of emotional responses to a dissatisfactory consumption experience and the relationship between these patterns and consumer post-purchase responses are investigated. In a mental simulation, participants reported their emotional responses and post-purchase cognitions, satisfaction, and behavioural intentions following a core service failure. Four discriminable patterns of emotional responses, positioned in a tridimensional space, were observed. Problem-handling cognitions, satisfaction judgements, and exit, voice, word-of-mouth, and loyalty intentions were found to differ among emotional patterns, with two structural dimensions, acceptance/calmness and anger/surprise, accounting for most of the variation in consumer behavioural responses to dissatisfaction.     

Mixing emotions: The use of humor in fear advertising

Fear is used to advertise many products, services, and causes such as antismoking, sunscreen usage, and safe driving. Past research indicates that high levels of fear tension arousal can prompt defensive responses in the audience, which, in turn, can reduce the persuasive effect of the ad. We show in two studies that humor can reduce these defensive responses and hence increase the persuasiveness of fear advertising. Specifically, we show that increasing the level of fear tension arousal decreases persuasion when humor is absent but increases persuasion when humor is present. Further, this interaction of humor and fear tension arousal is mediated by defensive responses related to message elaboration and vulnerability to threat. Our results suggest that the effectiveness of fear advertising can be increased by adding an element of humor to the ad. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.