Subjects' inferential performance and the interaction of data and hypotheses in probabilistic inference tasks

In a recent paper, Knez (1991) showed an interaction of data and hypotheses in probabilistic inference tasks. The results illustrated two, earlier not obtained, significant main effects on subjects' hypothesis sampling , viz. the effect of different forms of data presentation and subjects' execution of cognitive control over their hypothesis pool throughout the series of trials. The present paper followed up these results in that the subjects' hypothesis testing , in Knez (1991) was subjected to an analysis. Hence, to see if the effects mentioned above significantly influenced the subjects' hypothesis testing, as they did for subjects' hypothesis sampling. The results showed a consistency with Knez (1991), i.e. the results emphasize the interaction of data and hypothesis in probabilistic inference tasks, as well as the subjects' execution of cognitive control over their hypothesis pool concerning both the subjects' hypothesis sampling and testing.     

What Is Terrorism?

ABSTRACT My aim in this paper is not to try to formulate the meaning the word ‘terrorism’has in ordinary use; the word is used in so many different, even incompatible ways, that such an enterprise would quickly prove futile. My aim is rather to try for a definition that captures the trait, or traits, of terrorism which cause most of us to view it with moral repugnance. I discuss the following questions: Is the historical connection of terrorism with terror to be preserved on the conceptual level, or relegated to the psychology and sociology of terrorism? Does mere infliction of terror qualify as terrorism, so that we can speak of non-violent terrorism? If terrorism is a type of violence, does it have to be against persons, or should violence against property also count? In what sense can terrorism be described as indiscriminate violence? Should we use the word only in a political context? In such a context, can we speak of ‘state terrorism’, or should the word be restricted to actions not sanctioned by law? Is the terrorist necessarily oblivious to moral considerations, as those who define terrorism in terms of antinomianism imply? My answers to these questions lead up to the following definition: terrorism is the deliberate use of violence, or threat of its use, against innocent people, with the aim of intimidating them, or other people, into a course of action they otherwise would not take.     

PROBABILIST ANTIREALISM

Until now, antirealists have offered sketches of a theory of truth, at best. In this paper, we present a probabilist account of antirealist truth in some formal detail, and we assess its ability to deal with the problems that are standardly taken to beset antirealism.     

Estimation of the hypothesis hierarchy in probabilistic inference tasks*

Is there a hierarchical order among the hypotheses about functional rules in probabilistic inference tasks, i.e. what is the construction and the procedure of the “hypothesis sampling mechanism” employed by the subjects in this kind of task? According to the hypothesis sampling model initially proposed by Brehmer (1974) there should be a hierarchical order among the hypotheses in the subject's hypothesis pools. The procedures of hypothesis sampling and testing ought to follow this strict data independent order (see e.g. Sniezek, 1986; Brehmer, 1987). Knez (1991a, b) showed, however, that this assumption may be incorrect. As a follow up to these results the question regarding the construction of the subject's hypothesis pools was reapproached in the present study. The results indicated a consistency with the hierarchical assumption (Brehmer, 1974) only regarding the relation between the linear and nonlinear rules but not within these types of rules.     

Analytical space and work in Russia: Some remarks on past and present1

In this paper, the author outlines the historical‐cultural picture in the former USSR and post‐Soviet Russia. He looks at some facets of psychoanalysis in Russia in the years immediately before and after the October Revolution as well as in its recent history, exploring the implicit question of how the wider social context, and specifi cally totalitarian and post‐totalitarian reality, has infl uenced psychoanalytic work and analytic space in this country. With the help of Sebek's concept of the totalitarian object and Britton's formulations about the triangular space, the author attempts to understand the interaction of external and internal space and to give an introduction to the problem of establishing the analytic setting as well as fi nding some new possibilities of enlarging the space for new psychoanalysts in Russia.     

THE LOTTERY PARADOX AND OUR EPISTEMIC GOAL

Abstract: Many have the intuition that the right response to the Lottery Paradox is to deny that one can justifiably believe of even a single lottery ticket that it will lose. The paper shows that from any theory of justification that solves the paradox in accordance with this intuition, a theory not of that kind can be derived that also solves the paradox but is more conducive to our epistemic goal than the former. It is argued that currently there is no valid reason not to give preference to the derived accounts over the accounts from which they come.     

Interaction of data and hypotheses in probabilistic inference tasks: Rejection of the hypothesis sampling model?

The problem of whether or not data influence subjects' sampling of hypotheses about functional relations in the probabilistic inference tasks was examined. The results of the experiment show first, a considerable impact of data on subjects' hypothesis selection and second, that the subjects significantly modify their hypothesis selection from one part of the experiment to the other. Thus, there is an interaction of data and hypotheses in cue probability learning (CPL) tasks regarding the hypothesis sampling process and an execution of cognitive control over the subjects' hypothesis pool.     

Assortative mating for Dark Triad: Evidence of positive,initial, and active assortment

Hypotheses regarding positive versus negative assortment, initial assortment versus convergence, and active assortment versus social homogamy were tested on a sample of 100 heterosexual dating couples using variable‐ and couple‐centered approaches. A modest to moderate degree of positive assortment was found for all Dark Triad measures, the highest for Machiavellianism, followed by psychopathy and narcissism. Structural modeling also showed a moderate degree of positive assortment for men's and women's latent Dark Triad constructs. Results supported the initial assortment hypothesis, meaning that couples were already similar in the Dark Triad traits at the beginning of the relationship and did not converge over time. Additionally, similarity was not due to background variables such as age and education (i.e., social homogamy), thus supporting the active assortment hypothesis.     

A Pragmatic Dissolution of Harman's Paradox

There is widespread agreement that we cannot know of a lottery ticket we own that it is a loser prior to the drawing of the lottery. At the same time we appear to have knowledge of events that will occur only if our ticket is a loser. Supposing any plausible closure principle for knowledge, the foregoing seems to yield a paradox. Appealing to some broadly Gricean insights, the present paper argues that this paradox is apparent only.