Verbal and Numerical Expressions of Probability: "It's a Fifty-Fifty Chance"

When estimating risks, people may use "50" as an expression of the verbal phrase "fifty-fifty chance," without intending the associated number of 50%. The result is an excess of 50s in the response distribution. The present study examined factors determining the magnitude of such a "50 blip," using a large sample of adolescents and adults. We found that phrasing probability questions in a distributional format (asking about risks as a percentage in a population) rather than in a singular format (asking about risks to an individual) reduced the use of "50." Less numerate respondents, children, and less educated adults were more likely to say "50." Finally, events that evoked feelings of less perceived control led to more 50s. The results are discussed in terms of what they reveal about how people express epistemic uncertainty. Copyright 2000 Academic Press.     

Training Youth to Cope in Work Settings

This article deals with a study in which an experimental group of 71 economically disadvantaged youth was trained in generic coping skills as part of a CETA training program. The purpose of the program was to help these youth make the transition from school to unsubsidized work. The experimental group was compared to a control group that did not receive training, but did receive other commensurate training experiences. It was found that the experimental group rated their own gains resulting from training as larger than those of the controls, and that they indeed gained significantly more in knowledge and skills than the controls. In a pilot study of employer reactions, over 66% suggested that the coping skills were successfully applied in the work setting, and that it made a positive difference in how the employers evaluated the youths' performance. A six-mounth follow-up indicated that the coping skills training contributed to their employment and helped reduce dropping out of school. (Major portions of this article have previously appeared in the Michigan Personnel and Guidance Journal, whose editor has granted permission for reprint here.)