Decomposition,Interdependence and Precision in Multiattribute Utility Measurements

Traditionally, parameters of multiattribute utility models, representing a decision maker's preference judgements, are treated deterministically. This may be unrealistic, because assessment of such parameters is potentially fraught with imprecisions and errors. We thus treat such parameters as stochastic and investigate how their associated imprecision/errors are propagated in an additive multiattribute utility function in terms of the aggregate variance. Both a no information and a rank order case regarding the attribute weights are considered, assuming a uniform distribution over the feasible region of attribute weights constrained by the respective information assumption. In general, as the number of attributes increases, the variance of the aggregate utility in both cases decreases and approaches the same limit, which depends only on the variances as well as the correlations among the single-attribute utilities. However, the marginal change in aggregate utility variance decreases rather rapidly and hence decomposition as a variance reduction mechanism is generally useful but becomes relatively ineffective if the number of attributes exceed about 10. Moreover, it was found that utilities which are positively correlated increase the aggregate utility variance, hence every effort should be made to avoid positive correlations between the single-attribute utilities. We also provide guidelines for determining under what condition and to what extent a decision maker should decompose to obtain an aggregate utility variance that is smaller than that of holistic assessments. Extensions of the current model and empirical research to support some of our behavioural assumptions are discussed. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

“And Also Much Cattle”—A New Reading of an Old Fish Story

The author presents a careful analysis of the Book of Jonah to demonstrate that from beginning to end, in form and content, in diction, phraseology and style Jonah [is] a masterpiece of rhetoric. The author shows that the aim of the rhetoric is first to warn religious leaders against Jonah-like behavior and, second, to caution the general reader against a smug certitude that leads inevitably to the condemnation of those who do not agree. Moreover, the author's painstaking exegesis of the Book of Jonah indicates not only how carefully and subtly crafted the book is but also how much care the reader must take if he or she wishes to understand it.     

Childhood Precursors of Women's Artistic Eminence

ABSTRACT The paper describes the traits and life experiences that appear to have influenced the success of 21 eminent women in the visual arts. Key familial, school and social childhood conditions provided support and encouragement during the childhoods of women who became outstanding artists. As children, artists were creative, versatile, vital, energetic, sensitive, and found joy in their work. Corroborating previous findings, early achievement predicted later accomplishments. As in the lives of eminent authors, musicians, philosophers, and other illustrious groups, early intensive concentration in one's field of accomplishment, often to the near exclusion of other activities, is associated with high levels of accomplishment.     

INDIVIDUAL REACTIONS TO ORGANIZATIONAL RECRUITING: A REVIEW

The present paper reviews the research that has examined the influence of organizational recruiting on applicants' attitudes and job choice behaviors. It was found that recruiting representatives, administrative practices, and procedures used to evaluate applicant qualifications are all potentially important influences on job seeker attitudes and behaviors. However, limitations of the existing research necessitate caution in the interpretation of findings. Of particular concern is the likely generalizability of results presented here to all job seekers. The review concludes with recommendations for the conduct of subsequent recruiting research.     

Pilot Study of Extraneous Paperwork in a Parole/Probation Field Office

A brief history of parole and probation precedes a statement of the special problems surrounding its paperwork. The results of the pilot study that measured extraneous paperwork of a parole/probation field office are presented, with preliminary recommendations.     

Personal Explicit Theories of Creativity

In this investigation 143 creativity researchers completed a survey to rate the importance of various traits and developmental influences on creative achievement. They also rated the importance of various topics for future research. Sixteen composite variables were formed from the traits and developmental factors. Behaviors in the Motivational Composite were rated as most important for recognized creative achievement, followed by Problem Finding and Questioning Skills, and traits reflecting Adaptive Cognition. The ratings of the Developmental survey items suggested that Education and Learning were most important for achievement, followed by Cultural and Social factors, and then Family and Early Background. The top five ranked topics for future research included actual creative behavior, motivation and drive, imagery, imagination, and creative products. Group differences were explored, but few differences were found in, comparisons of ratings from researchers who had experience; teaching creativity courses and those who had published a book or article, and those who had not. Similarly, only slight group differences were found for ratings of important research topics. Differences in self-reported creative interests (i.e., writing and music) were related to selected ratings of creative achievement variables and important research topics. In general, the results suggested that researchers believe creativity to be a complex or syndrome which draws from cognitive, affective, social, and perhaps even physical realms. The lack of group differences implies a homogeneity of opinion and consensus with respect to the importance of traits, developmental factors, and research topics.