Unidimensional factor models imply weaker partial correlations than zero-order correlations

In this paper we present a new implication of the unidimensional factor model. We prove that the partial correlation between two observed variables that load on one factor given any subset of other observed variables that load on this factor lies between zero and the zero-order correlation between these two observed variables. We implement this result in an empirical bootstrap test that rejects the unidimensional factor model when partial correlations are identified that are either stronger than the zero-order correlation or have a different sign than the zero-order correlation. We demonstrate the use of the test in an empirical data example with data consisting of fourteen items that measure extraversion.     

A Comparison of Inverse-Wishart Prior Specifications for Covariance Matrices in Multilevel Autoregressive Models

Multilevel autoregressive models are especially suited for modeling between-person differences in within-person processes. Fitting these models with Bayesian techniques requires the specification of prior distributions for all parameters. Often it is desirable to specify prior distributions that have negligible effects on the resulting parameter estimates. However, the conjugate prior distribution for covariance matrices—the Inverse-Wishart distribution—tends to be informative when variances are close to zero. This is problematic for multilevel autoregressive models, because autoregressive parameters are usually small for each individual, so that the variance of these parameters will be small. We performed a simulation study to compare the performance of three Inverse-Wishart prior specifications suggested in the literature, when one or more variances for the random effects in the multilevel autoregressive model are small. Our results show that the prior specification that uses plug-in ML estimates of the variances performs best. We advise to always include a sensitivity analysis for the prior specification for covariance matrices of random parameters, especially in autoregressive models, and to include a data-based prior specification in this analysis. We illustrate such an analysis by means of an empirical application on repeated measures data on worrying and positive affect.     

On the Relation Between the Linear Factor Model and the Latent Profile Model

The relationship between linear factor models and latent profile models is addressed within the context of maximum likelihood estimation based on the joint distribution of the manifest variables. Although the two models are well known to imply equivalent covariance decompositions, in general they do not yield equivalent estimates of the unconditional covariances. In particular, a 2-class latent profile model with Gaussian components underestimates the observed covariances but not the variances, when the data are consistent with a unidimensional Gaussian factor model. In explanation of this phenomenon we provide some results relating the unconditional covariances to the goodness of fit of the latent profile model, and to its excess multivariate kurtosis. The analysis also leads to some useful parameter restrictions related to symmetry.     

Goodness-of-fit and confidence intervals of approximate models

If the model for the data are strictly speaking incorrect, then how can one test whether the model fits? Standard goodness-of-fit (GOF) tests rely on strictly correct or incorrect models. But in practice the correct model is not assumed to be available. It would still be of interest to determine how good or how bad the approximation is. But how can this be achieved? If it is determined that a model is a good approximation and hence a good explanation of the data, how can reliable confidence intervals be constructed? In this paper, an attempt is made to answer the above questions. Several GOF tests and methods of constructing confidence intervals are evaluated both in a simulation and with real data from the internet-based daily news memory test.     

Regime Switching State-Space Models Applied to Psychological Processes: Handling Missing Data and Making Inferences

Many psychological processes are characterized by recurrent shifts between distinct regimes or states. Examples that are considered in this paper are the switches between different states associated with premenstrual syndrome, hourly fluctuations in affect during a major depressive episode, and shifts between a “hot hand” and a “cold hand” in a top athlete. We model these processes with the regime switching state-space model proposed by Kim (J. Econom. 60:1–22, 1994), which results in both maximum likelihood estimates for the model parameters and estimates of the latent variables and the discrete states of the process. However, the current algorithm cannot handle missing data, which limits its applicability to psychological data. Moreover, the performance of standard errors for the purpose of making inferences about the parameter estimates is yet unknown. In this paper we modify Kim’s algorithm so it can handle missing data and we perform a simulation study to investigate its performance in (relatively) short time series in cases of different kinds of missing data and in case of complete data. Finally, we apply the regime switching state-space model to the three empirical data sets described above.     

Bayesian hypothesis testing for psychologists: A tutorial on the Savage–Dickey method

In the field of cognitive psychology, the p-value hypothesis test has established a stranglehold on statistical reporting. This is unfortunate, as the p-value provides at best a rough estimate of the evidence that the data provide for the presence of an experimental effect. An alternative and arguably more appropriate measure of evidence is conveyed by a Bayesian hypothesis test, which prefers the model with the highest average likelihood. One of the main problems with this Bayesian hypothesis test, however, is that it often requires relatively sophisticated numerical methods for its computation. Here we draw attention to the Savage–Dickey density ratio method, a method that can be used to compute the result of a Bayesian hypothesis test for nested models and under certain plausible restrictions on the parameter priors. Practical examples demonstrate the method’s validity, generality, and flexibility.     

On the relation between the mean and the variance of a diffusion model response time distribution

Almost every empirical psychological study finds that the variance of a response time (RT) distribution increases with the mean. Here we present a theoretical analysis of the nature of the relationship between RT mean and RT variance, based on the assumption that a diffusion model (e.g., Ratcliff (1978) Psychological Review, 85, 59-108; Ratcliff (2002). Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 9, 278-291), adequately captures the shape of empirical RT distributions. We first derive closed-form analytic solutions for the mean and variance of a diffusion model RT distribution. Next, we study how systematic differences in two important diffusion model parameters simultaneously affect the mean and the variance of the diffusion model RT distribution. Within the range of plausible values for the drift rate parameter, the relation between RT mean and RT standard deviation is approximately linear. Manipulation of the boundary separation parameter also leads to an approximately linear relation between RT mean and RT standard deviation, but only for low values of the drift rate parameter.     

A dynamical model of general intelligence: the positive manifold of intelligence by mutualism

Scores on cognitive tasks used in intelligence tests correlate positively with each other, that is, they display a positive manifold of correlations. The positive manifold is often explained by positing a dominant latent variable, the g factor, associated with a single quantitative cognitive or biological process or capacity. In this article, a new explanation of the positive manifold based on a dynamical model is proposed, in which reciprocal causation or mutualism plays a central role. It is shown that the positive manifold emerges purely by positive beneficial interactions between cognitive processes during development. A single underlying g factor plays no role in the model. The model offers explanations of important findings in intelligence research, such as the hierarchical factor structure of intelligence, the low predictability of intelligence from early childhood performance, the integration/differentiation effect, the increase in heritability of g, and the Jensen effect, and is consistent with current explanations of the Flynn effect.     

On the mean and variance of response times under the diffusion model with an application to parameter estimation

We give closed form expressions for the mean and variance of RTs for Ratcliff’s diffusion model [Ratcliff, R. (1978). A theory of memory retrieval. Psychological Review, 85, 59-108] under the simplifying assumption that there is no variability across trials in the parameters. These expressions are more general than those currently available. As an application, we demonstrate their use in a method-of-moments estimation procedure that addresses some of the weaknesses of the EZ method [Wagenmakers, E.-J., van der Maas, H. L. J., & Grasman, R. P. P. P. (2007). An EZ-diffusion model for response time and accuracy. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 14, 3-22], and illustrate this with lexical decision data. We discuss further possible applications.     

An EZ-diffusion model for response time and accuracy

The EZ-diffusion model for two-choice response time tasks takes mean response time, the variance of response time, and response accuracy as inputs. The model transforms these data via three simple equations to produce unique values for the quality of information, response conservativeness, and nondecision time. This transformation of observed data in terms of unobserved variables addresses the speed—accuracy trade-off and allows an unambiguous quantification of performance differences in two-choice response time tasks. The EZ-diffusion model can be applied to data-sparse situations to facilitate individual subject analysis. We studied the performance of the EZ-diffusion model in terms of parameter recovery and robustness against misspecification by using Monte Carlo simulations. The EZ model was also applied to a real-world data set.