Predictive laws of association in statistics and physics

In the present paper we face the problem of estimating cell probabilities in the case of a two-dimensional contingency table from a predictive point of view. The solution is given by a double stochastic process. The first subprocess, the unobservable one, is supposed to be exchangeable and invariant. For the second subprocess, the observable one, we suppose it is independent conditional on the first one.     

The Ehrenfest Fleas: From Model to Theory

A generalization of Ehrenfest's urn model is suggested. This will allow usto treat a wide class of stochastic processes describing the changes ofmicroscopic objects. These processes are homogeneous Markov chains. Thegeneralization proposed is presented as an abstract conditional (relative)probability theory. The probability axioms of such a theory and some simpleadditional conditions, yield both transition probabilities and equilibriumdistributions. The resulting theory interpreted in terms of particles andsingle-particle states, leads to the usual formulae of quantum and classicalstatistical mechanics; in terms of chromosomes and allelic types, it allowsthe deduction of many genetical models including the Ewens sampling formula;in terms of agents' strategies, it gives a justification of the ``herdbehaviour' typical of a population of heterogeneous economic agents.     

The production and perception of long calls by cotton-top tamarins (Saguinus oedipus): acoustic analyses and playback experiments

The authors' goal was to provide a better understanding of the relationship between vocal production and perception in nonhuman primate communication. To this end, the authors examined the cotton-top tamarin's (Saguinus oedipus) combination long call (CLC). In Part 1 of this study, the authors carried out a series of acoustic analyses designed to determine the kind of information potentially encoded in the tamarin's CLC. Using factorial analyses of variance and multiple discriminant analyses, the authors explored whether the CLC encodes 3 types of identity information: individual, sex, and social group. Results revealed that exemplars could be reliably assigned to these 3 functional classes on the basis of a suite of spectrotemporal features. In Part 2 of this study, the authors used a series of habituation-dishabituation playback experiments to test whether tamarins attend to the encoded information about individual identity. The authors 1st tested for individual discrimination when tamarins were habituated to a series of calls from 1 tamarin and then played back a test call from a novel tamarin; both opposite- and same-sex pairings were tested. Results showed that tamarins dishabituated when caller identity changed but transferred habituation when caller identity was held constant and a new exemplar was played (control condition). Follow-up playback experiments revealed an asymmetry between the authors' acoustic analyses of individual identity and the tamarins' capacity to discriminate among vocal signatures; whereas all colony members have distinctive vocal signatures, we found that not all tamarins were equally discriminable based on the habituation-dishabituation paradigm.