The Popcorn Problem: Sobel on evidential decision theory and deliberation-probability dynamics

I defend evidential decision theory and the theory of deliberation-probability dynamics from a recent criticism advanced by Jordan Howard Sobel. I argue that his alleged counterexample to the theories, called the Popcorn Problem is not a genuine counterexample.     

Symmetries and Asymmetries in Evidential Support

Several forms of symmetry in degrees of evidential support areconsidered. Some of these symmetries are shown not to hold in general. This has implications for the adequacy of many measures of degree ofevidential support that have been proposed and defended in the philosophical literature.     

Alcohol as social lubricant.

This study examines how consuming alcohol differentially affects the communicative behavior and perceptions of high and low social self‐esteem (SSE) women as they engage in a brief interaction with a flirtatious male. Alcohol myopia theory proposes that alcohol affects behavior when it blocks a person's normal inhibitions about enacting a behavior. It was predicted that low SSE women would be more inhibited when talking to a flirtatious male than would high SSE women and, therefore administration of a social self‐esteem measure and random assignment to an alcoholic or nonalcoholic beverage condition, participants (N=50) talked with an attractive, flirtatious male confederate. Low SSE women were less anxious and self‐disclosed more when drinking than when sober, whereas high SSE women were not significantly affected by alcohol consumption. The discussion highlights the complex and often contradictory effects of alcohol consumption on social interaction.     

Objective probability theory theory

I argue that to the extent to which philosophical theories of objective probability have offered theoretically adequateconceptions of objective probability (in connection with such desiderata as causal and explanatory significance, applicability to single cases, etc.), they have failed to satisfy amethodological standard — roughly, a requirement to the effect that the conception offered be specified with the precision appropriate for a physical interpretation of an abstract formal calculus and be fully explicated in terms of concepts, objects or phenomena understood independently of the idea of physical probability. The significance of this, and of the suggested methodological standard, is then briefly discussed.     

Perceived psychological stress among high school basketball officials

The purpose of this study was to survey certified high school basketball officials during midseason to assess whether the sources and magnitude of perceived psychological stress would be consistent with previous studies of officials in other sports. The sources and magnitude of perceived psychological stress were measured among 324 high school basketball officials (N=324; 312 men, 12 women) using a revised version of the Ontario Soccer Officials Survey. The mean age was 37.6 yr. (SD= 9.4), and the mean years of basketball refereeing experience was 11.7 yr. (SD=8.3). A random sample (N=498) of all basketball officials in a midwestern state (N=1,011) was used, and 324 of the surveys were returned (65%). The overall variance accounted for with the four factors was 84.7%. The magnitude of stress for these factors ranged from below mild to moderate.