On belief bias in syllogistic reasoning

A multinomial model is used to disentangle the respective contributions of reasoning processes and response bias in conclusion-acceptance data that exhibit belief bias. A model-based meta-analysis of 22 studies reveals that such data are structurally too sparse to allow discrimination of different accounts of belief bias. Four experiments are conducted to obtain richer data, allowing deeper tests through the use of the multinomial model. None of the current accounts of belief bias is consistent with the complex pattern of results. A new theory of belief bias is proposed that assumes that most reasoners construct only one mental model representing the premises as well as the conclusion or, in the case of an unbelievable conclusion, its logical negation. New predictions derived from the theory are confirmed in 4 additional studies.     

Personality differences in hindsight bias

Ten personality correlates of hindsight bias were tested in a study with 75 participants answering almanac-type knowledge questions. Participants showed hindsight bias when hindsight estimates were compared to foresight estimates (memory condition), when hindsight estimates were compared to foresight estimates of other participants (BS = between-subjects hypothetical condition), and when hindsight estimates were compared to foresight estimates in response to equally difficult control items (WS = within-subject hypothetical condition). The magnitude of hindsight bias in both hypothetical conditions was positively associated with the participant's field dependence and his or her tendency for favourable self-presentation (as measured by social desirability and impression management). Between-subjects hypothetical hindsight was associated with the participant's conscientiousness and need for predictability and control (as measured by a rigidity scale). In a multiple regression analysis, 39% of the variance in BS hypothetical hindsight, 24% of the variance in WS hypothetical hindsight, but no significant proportion of the variance in memory hindsight could be accounted for by personality measures. It is concluded that individual differences in hindsight bias exist and must be taken into account in a complete model of the effect.     

Intercepting Moving Objects During Self-Motion

It is generally assumed that in catching a fly ball, an efficient strategy for dealing with the horizontal component of the ball's trajectory is for the observer to keep the angular position of the ball constant with respect to his head. That strategy is called the constant bearing angle or CBA strategy. Maintenance of angular constancy results in the simultaneous arrival of both observer and ball at the landing spot. The authors analyzed the approach behavior of 26 subjects in a ball-interception task with straight paths for both the subjects and the ball. Subjects moved at a velocity that maintained a close-to-constant horizontal angular position of the ball with respect to the end effector throughout the approach phase rather than a constant bearing angle with respect to their head. Velocity adaptations occurred as a function of the changes in the angular velocity of the ball in such a way that a positive or negative angular velocity was canceled. Thus, an actor following the CBA strategy does not need to know where and when the ball will arrive (i.e., a predictive strategy), because reliance on the CBA strategy ensures that he will make the appropriate adaptations that enable him to arrive at the right place in the right time.     

Ecological relevance of stereopsis in one-handed ball-catching

The aim of this study was to compare one-handed catching performance between catchers with high (n = 10) and low (n = 10) binocular depth vision or stereopsis. In two sessions of 90 trials, tennis balls were projected at three different velocities towards the subject's shoulder region. Participants with good stereopsis were more successful, although the difference in number of correct catches fell short of significance. More specifically, catchers with low stereopsis made more temporal errors, but no differences in spatial errors. As the velocity of the ball increased, the initiation of the catch was delayed and catching performance decreased. The finding that stereopsis affected timing of the catch challenges the 'monocular tau hypothesis' in the control of interceptive timing, while the velocity effect shows that the act of catching a ball is not initiated at a constant time-to-contact.     

Defection in the dark? A randomized‐response investigation of cooperativeness in social dilemma games

As previous research has demonstrated numerous times, humans show a robust tendency for cooperation. However, part—or indeed all—of this cooperativeness may be due to socially desirable responding. To address this problem, we propose and apply a new approach for the unbiased measurement of cooperativeness in social dilemma games. Specifically, we employ an extension of the randomized‐response technique (RRT). The RRT protects the privacy of respondents by adding random noise to their responses. It thus encourages more honest responding and thereby provides less biased estimates of sensitive attributes. In a large‐scale study with 2043 respondents we maximized anonymity in a one‐shot prisoner's dilemma game through use of the RRT. Comparing the prevalence rates for cooperation obtained via the RRT with those from direct self‐report showed that traditional direct questioning formats overestimate cooperation rates, with a relative bias of 18%. This finding suggests that to a considerable extent, self‐reported cooperation is due to socially desirable responding, rather than actual cooperativeness. However, our results also demonstrate that cooperation remains substantial even under conditions of maximized anonymity. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Enhanced old–new recognition and source memory for faces of cooperators and defectors in a social-dilemma game

A popular assumption in evolutionary psychology is that the human mind comprises specialized cognitive modules for social exchange, including a module that serves to enhance memory for faces of cheaters. In the present study, participants played a trust game with computerized opponents, who either defected or cooperated. In a control condition, no interaction took place. In a surprise memory test, old–new recognition for faces and source memory for the associated cooperative or non-cooperative behavior were assessed. A multinomial model was used to measure old–new discrimination, source memory, and guessing biases separately. Inconsistent with the assumption of a memory mechanism that focuses exclusively on cheating, the present study showed enhanced old–new discrimination and source memory for both cooperators and defectors. Rarity of the behavior strategies within the experiment modulated source memory, but only when the differences in base rates were extreme. The findings can be attributed to a mechanism that focuses on exchange-relevant information and flexibly adapts to take into account the relative significance of this information in the encoding context, which may be more beneficial than focusing exclusively on cheaters.     

Rate of Change of Angular Bearing as the Relevant Property in a Horizontal Interception Task During Locomotion

The authors ran 3 experiments to investigate how catchers deal with the horizontal component of the ball's trajectory in an interception task during locomotion. The experiments were built upon the finding that velocity adaptations are based upon changes in the horizontal angular position or velocity of the ball with respect to the observer (M. Lenoir, M. Janssens, E. Musch, E. Thiery, & J. Uyttenhove, 1999); a potential underlying information source for that strategy is described. In Experiment 1, actor (N = 10 participants) and ball approached each other along the legs of a V-shaped track. When the velocity and the initial angular bearing of the ball were varied, the observed behavior fitted with nulling the horizontal angular velocity of the ball: A positive or negative angular velocity was compensated by a velocity change. Evidence was obtained that those adaptations are modulated by a critical change in, rather than by a critical state of, the environment-actor system. In Experiment 2, the distance between the head and an artificial end-effector was varied. Irrespective of that distance, participants (N = 7) accelerated and decelerated in order to keep the angular velocity of the ball with respect to the end-effector close to constant. The ecological relevance of that constant bearing angle strategy was confirmed in Experiment 3: Participants (N = 7) in that experiment freely ran to catch fly balls. The present results support the concept that one can explain with a limited number of control variables an actor's behavior in an interception task during self-motion.     

Seriousness checks are useful to improve data validity in online research

Nonserious answering behavior increases noise and reduces experimental power; it is therefore one of the most important threats to the validity of online research. A simple way to address the problem is to ask respondents about the seriousness of their participation and to exclude self-declared nonserious participants from analysis. To validate this approach, a survey was conducted in the week prior to the German 2009 federal election to the Bundestag. Serious participants answered a number of attitudinal and behavioral questions in a more consistent and predictively valid manner than did nonserious participants. We therefore recommend routinely employing seriousness checks in online surveys to improve data validity.     

THE ATOMIC PRIESTHOOD AND NUCLEAR WASTE MANAGEMENT: RELIGION,SCI‐FI LITERATURE,AND THE END OF OUR CIVILIZATION

This article discusses the idea of an “Atomic Priesthood,” a religious caste that would preserve and transmit the knowledge of nuclear waste management for future generations. In 1981, the US Department of Energy commissioned a “Human Interference Task Force” (HITF) that would examine the possibilities of how to maintain the security of nuclear waste storage sites for 10,000 years, a period during which our civilization would likely perish, but the dangerous nature of nuclear waste would persist. One option that was discussed was the establishment of an “atomic priesthood,” an idea that science fiction writers like Isaac Asimov and Arsen Darney had already toyed with. Reading the HITF report alongside sci‐fi novels, my article will shed light on the question of how the sheer force of nuclear power (and the longevity of nuclear waste) lends itself to religious interpretations and how the idea of the atomic priesthood is connected with the utopian/dystopian aspects of nuclear power.     

How Indirect Questioning Techniques May Promote Democracy: A Preelection Polling Experiment

Socially desirable responding may cause differences between preelection polls and election outcomes. Bias-free preelection polls are, however, important because they influence election outcomes. Benefiting from a unique opportunity, we experimentally controlled social desirability using the Crosswise Model in a poll prior to the German federal election in 2013. We found that due to strategic voting, outcome expectations were related to voting intentions; the election outcome was therefore likely distorted by social desirability bias in preelection polls. We recommend using indirect questioning techniques whenever a vote for at least one of the competing parties may be perceived as socially undesirable.