Response error and processing biases in confidence judgment

Previous studies showed that random error can explain overconfidence effects typically observed in the literature. One of these studies concluded that, after accounting for random error effects in the data, there is little support for cognitive‐processing biases in confidence elicitation. In this paper, we investigate more closely the random error explanation for overconfidence. We generated data from four models of confidence and then estimated the magnitude of random error in the data. Our results show that, in addition to the true magnitude of random error specified in the simulations, the error estimates are influenced by important cognitive‐processing biases in the confidence elicitation process. We found that random error in the response process can account for the degree of overconfidence found in calibration studies, even when that overconfidence is actually caused by other factors. Thus, the error models say little about whether cognitive biases are present in the confidence elicitation process. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Defining, Measuring, and Comparing Organisational Cultures

La littérature portant sur la culture des organisations souffre d'un manque manifeste d'enquêtes extensives débouchant sur des études comparatives. Afin de rendre plus comparables les cultures organisationnelles, nous proposons une définition et une série de dimensions. La culture organisationnelle renverrait aux perceptions communes des pratiques de travail dans le cadre des unités constitutives des organisations. A l'examen d'études empiriques, les cinq dimensions suivantes nous sont apparues: autonomie, orientation externe, coordination interdépartementale, orientation vers les ressources humaines et orientation vers le développement. L'utilisation de cette définition et de ces dimensions générales devrait faciliter la comparaison des cultures organisationnelles et l'accumulation de résultats.
Within the body of organisation culture literature, there is a conspicuous absence of large-scale studies reporting on comparative studies. In order to increase comparability of organisational cultures we propose a definition and a set of dimensions. Organisational culture is defined as shared perceptions of organisational work practices within organisational units. On the basis of empirical studies we discerned the following five dimensions: autonomy, external orientation, interdepartmental coordination, human resource orientation, and improvement orientation. Use of this definition and a set of such generic dimensions would facilitate the comparison of organisational cultures and the accumulation of research findings.     

Clues to Suicide,Reconsidered

This brief paper focuses on a rather recondite aspect of the suicidal scenario: dissembling (feigning, pretending, withholding). Most individuals who commit suicide exhibit prodromal indicia in the month before. These verbal and behavioral clues are found in about 90% of psychological autopsies of suicidal deaths. As for the other 10% who mask or hide their lethal intentions, we do well to assume that even some hidden clues might be deciphered by the skillful clinician or the alert friend or colleague.     

Local Opposition to the Construction of a Nuclear Power Station: Differential Salience of Impacts1

This study examined attitudes among 290 residents of three villages in South-West England toward proposals to build a nuclear power station nearby. Respondents were split into four groups according to whether they were neutral or in favor of a new power station either locally or elsewhere in the UK (Group PN), against one locally but neutral or pro elsewhere (LO), or moderately (MO) or extremely (XO) against a new power station both locally and elsewhere. The perceived impact of a nuclear power station on local life was assessed by 30 items. The PN group expected most benefit or least damage on all 30 items. On a majority of items the mean ratings of the LO group resembled those of the XO's more than did those of the MO's. A stepwise discriminant analysis yielded two interpretable functions. The first reflected a trend over the groups in the order PN-LO-MO-XO and was marked particularly by concern with impact on personal peace of mind. The second fuction discriminated the LO's from the other groups, suggesting that they were relatively less concerned with specifically nuclear risks, but more concerned with environmental conservation.     

Reduced intergroup differentiation as a result of self-categorization in overlapping categories. A quasi-experiment

A quasi-experiment was conducted to examine the effects of self-categorization in overlapping categories on intergroup differentiation. ‘Old aged women’ was used as the first, ‘sports’ as the additional category. It could be shown that intergroup differentiation was significantly reduced under crossed categorization conditions. Implications for social compensation strategies are discussed.     

Subject knowledge of the Experimenter''s interest in handedness and familial sinistrality variables and laterality test outcomes

We investigated the possible influence of common "demand characteristics" on the results on behavioral language laterality tasks. The demand characteristics were (1) whether Ss were or were not recruited for study according to their handedness, and (2) whether a detailed familial sinistrality inquiry was conducted before or after the tasks. Tasks were the Dichotic Consonant Vowel Task (DCVT) and the Bilateral Object Naming Latency Task (BONLT). Results showed no effect of demand characteristics on the BONLT. On the DCVT, however, prior inquiry regarding familial sinistrality was associated with significantly reduced right ear advantages (REAs). Interactions showed that the greatest reduction in REAs occurred in Ss with left-handedness in their families, who were asked about familial sinistrality prior to the tasks, who took the DCVT after the BONLT, and who were also recruited by handedness. Results, though generally reassuring regarding the robustness of the tasks against these sources of bias, raise some cautions for the DCVT.