Response error and processing biases in confidence judgment

Previous studies showed that random error can explain overconfidence effects typically observed in the literature. One of these studies concluded that, after accounting for random error effects in the data, there is little support for cognitive‐processing biases in confidence elicitation. In this paper, we investigate more closely the random error explanation for overconfidence. We generated data from four models of confidence and then estimated the magnitude of random error in the data. Our results show that, in addition to the true magnitude of random error specified in the simulations, the error estimates are influenced by important cognitive‐processing biases in the confidence elicitation process. We found that random error in the response process can account for the degree of overconfidence found in calibration studies, even when that overconfidence is actually caused by other factors. Thus, the error models say little about whether cognitive biases are present in the confidence elicitation process. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluation of a comprehensive inpatient rational-emotive therapy program: Some preliminary data

Mental health practitioners are faced with a profound challenge surrounding the prevalence of adult mental disorders, the need for inpatient treatment programs, and the costs of such programs. This paper describes the development of an adult inpatient psychiatric program based on Rational-Emotive Therapy. Specific elements of this program are described briefly, and preliminary outcome data presented on 372 patients. Concerns and future directions are also discussed. Development of adult inpatient psychiatric programs based on Rational-Emotive Therapy would appear to be one method of providing effective and cost-efficient treatment within the current cost-containment atmosphere of psychiatric treatment.Dr. Nottingham is an Associate Fellow and Approved Supervisor of the Institute for Rational-Emotive Therapy. He is in independent practice with Germantown Psychological Associates, P.C. and is Director of Psychology at Parkwood Hospital, Olive Branch, MS. Dr. Neimeyer is an Associate Professor and Director of Clinical Training in the Department of Psychology of Memphis State University. He has written extensively in the areas of cognitive and constructivist psychotherapy, and is co-editor of the International Journal of Personal Construct Psychology.The authors would like to thank Kat Bagley, Joe Grillo, Ivey Bright, Brooke Bensen, Cathy Michas, Brad Barris, Lori Passmore, David Wilkins, and Dee Conrad for their help with data collection. Additionally, without the assistance and support of the Parkwood Hospital administration and staff, neither this treatment program nor this paper could have been developed.Portions of this paper based on earlier data analyses were presented at the Mississippi Psychological Association Convention, September, 1990. This research was conducted at Parkwood Hospital.     

The psychological cost of waiting

The study of any problem involving waiting situations invariably assumes that people dislike having to wait. The analysis of queueing problems usually prescribes that some costs should be associated with the time people spend waiting to be served. These are usually considered to be of an economic nature, though the existence of other costs of a psychological nature is accepted. It is generally accepted that after having to wait for a certain amount of time, anxiety and stress start to build up in an individual, due both to the sense of waste and the uncertainty involved in a waiting situation. This work provides a theoretical basis for analysing this building up process as it occurs during the waiting period. It is proved that, under very general conditions, the resulting psychological stress accumulated during the process is a marginal increasing function of the waiting time, and some strategies to minimise it are developed. The results obtained give theoretical support to the usual assumptions underlying the development of systems to provide “real time” information to people in waiting situations. This is especially important in the operation of public transportation systems. The results also provide theoretical support to the “convex” treatment usually given to the waiting cost function in queueing problems.     

The fisher-yates exact test and unequal sample sizes

A computational short cut suggested by Feldman and Klinger for the one-sided Fisher-Yates exact test is clarified and is extended to the calculation of probability values for certain two-sided tests when sample sizes are unequal.     

The number of ways to label a structure

It has been observed that the number of different ways in which a graph withp points can be labelled isp! divided by the number of symmetries, and that this holds regardless of the species of structure at hand. In this note, a simple group-theoretic proof is provided.This work was supported by Grant MH 10834 from the National Institute of Mental Health.     

Wistful Wish: Evaluation Without Values

Two recommendations from a recent statement of standards for counselor education are examined for underlying philosophical assumptions. The first recommendation, that counselors should possess ability for and conduct scientific research, assumes that the counseling process is lawful and orderly, that theoretical concepts can be operationally defined and that empirically testable predictions can be derived from counseling theories. A second recommendation suggests that counselors-in-training be selectively admitted and retained. Underlying this recommendation is the assumption that counseling is a process of influence that can be evaluated. Such evaluation must be based on conditions outside the counseling relationship, in the social context of the life of the client. The serious implications of these assumptions are illustrated and discussed.     

Systematic 24-hr behavioral observations of sleep and wakefulness in a skilled-care nursing facility

Sleep patterns of aged, infirm, demented, chronically institutionalized residents of a skilled-care nursing facility were studied. The purpose of this naturalistic study was to describe sleep and wakefulness (S/W) within the limits afforded by brief behavioral observations and to examine homeostasis and diurnal rhythmicity of S/W as a function of psychoactive drug intake. Observers noted S/W every 15 min, 24 hr a day for 10 days in 24 Ss. Results indicated substantial individual variation in daytime hours. Daily and weekly variation within Ss was minimal. Sleep was least likely near sunset. Ss on psychoactive drugs showed dampened diurnal variation in S/W rhythms. In Ss not on such drugs, there was a suggestion of homeostasis of S/W between sleep during the morning and evening hours. Results are discussed methodologically (viability of approach), theoretically (age-related change in sleep), and practically (potential treatments).     

On Assumptions of, Relations between, and Evaluations of Some Process Dissociation Measurement Models

In this article, we analyze both M. J. Wainwright and E. M. Reingold's (1996) view of the process dissociation measurement models presented by A. Buchner, E. Erdfelder, and B. Vaterrodt-Plunnecke (1995) and their suggestions on that topic. This analysis reveals a number of problems in Wainwright and Reingold's approach. Some of these problems are more subtle than others, but they are nevertheless consequential. Thus, researchers working with the process dissociation procedure should be aware of these problems.