Response error and processing biases in confidence judgment

Previous studies showed that random error can explain overconfidence effects typically observed in the literature. One of these studies concluded that, after accounting for random error effects in the data, there is little support for cognitive‐processing biases in confidence elicitation. In this paper, we investigate more closely the random error explanation for overconfidence. We generated data from four models of confidence and then estimated the magnitude of random error in the data. Our results show that, in addition to the true magnitude of random error specified in the simulations, the error estimates are influenced by important cognitive‐processing biases in the confidence elicitation process. We found that random error in the response process can account for the degree of overconfidence found in calibration studies, even when that overconfidence is actually caused by other factors. Thus, the error models say little about whether cognitive biases are present in the confidence elicitation process. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluation of a comprehensive inpatient rational-emotive therapy program: Some preliminary data

Mental health practitioners are faced with a profound challenge surrounding the prevalence of adult mental disorders, the need for inpatient treatment programs, and the costs of such programs. This paper describes the development of an adult inpatient psychiatric program based on Rational-Emotive Therapy. Specific elements of this program are described briefly, and preliminary outcome data presented on 372 patients. Concerns and future directions are also discussed. Development of adult inpatient psychiatric programs based on Rational-Emotive Therapy would appear to be one method of providing effective and cost-efficient treatment within the current cost-containment atmosphere of psychiatric treatment.Dr. Nottingham is an Associate Fellow and Approved Supervisor of the Institute for Rational-Emotive Therapy. He is in independent practice with Germantown Psychological Associates, P.C. and is Director of Psychology at Parkwood Hospital, Olive Branch, MS. Dr. Neimeyer is an Associate Professor and Director of Clinical Training in the Department of Psychology of Memphis State University. He has written extensively in the areas of cognitive and constructivist psychotherapy, and is co-editor of the International Journal of Personal Construct Psychology.The authors would like to thank Kat Bagley, Joe Grillo, Ivey Bright, Brooke Bensen, Cathy Michas, Brad Barris, Lori Passmore, David Wilkins, and Dee Conrad for their help with data collection. Additionally, without the assistance and support of the Parkwood Hospital administration and staff, neither this treatment program nor this paper could have been developed.Portions of this paper based on earlier data analyses were presented at the Mississippi Psychological Association Convention, September, 1990. This research was conducted at Parkwood Hospital.     

Telescoping is not time compression: A model

A model of telescoping is proposed that assumes no systematic errors in dating. Rather, the overestimation of recent occurrences of events is based on the combination of three factors: (1) Retention is greater for recent events; (2) errors in dating, though unbiased, increase linearly with the time since the dated event; and (3) intrusions often occur from events outside the period being asked about, but such intrusions do not come from events that have not yet occurred. In Experiment 1, we found that recall for colloquia fell markedly over a 2-year interval, the magnitude of errors in psychologists' dating of the colloquia increased at a rate of .4 days per day of delay, and the direction of the dating error was toward the middle of the interval. In Experiment 2, the model used the retention function and dating errors from the first study to predict the distribution of the actual dates of colloquia recalled as being within a 5-month period. In Experiment 3, the findings of the first study were replicated with colloquia given by, instead of for, the subjects.     

The psychological cost of waiting

The study of any problem involving waiting situations invariably assumes that people dislike having to wait. The analysis of queueing problems usually prescribes that some costs should be associated with the time people spend waiting to be served. These are usually considered to be of an economic nature, though the existence of other costs of a psychological nature is accepted. It is generally accepted that after having to wait for a certain amount of time, anxiety and stress start to build up in an individual, due both to the sense of waste and the uncertainty involved in a waiting situation. This work provides a theoretical basis for analysing this building up process as it occurs during the waiting period. It is proved that, under very general conditions, the resulting psychological stress accumulated during the process is a marginal increasing function of the waiting time, and some strategies to minimise it are developed. The results obtained give theoretical support to the usual assumptions underlying the development of systems to provide “real time” information to people in waiting situations. This is especially important in the operation of public transportation systems. The results also provide theoretical support to the “convex” treatment usually given to the waiting cost function in queueing problems.     

Perceptual normalization of vowels produced by sinusoidal voices

When listeners hear a sinusoidal replica of a sentence, they perceive linguistic properties despite the absence of short-time acoustic components typical of vocal signals. Is this accomplished by a postperceptual strategy that accommodates the anomalous acoustic pattern ad hoc, or is a sinusoidal sentence understood by the ordinary means of speech perception? If listeners treat sinusoidal signals as speech signals however unlike speech they may be, then perception should exhibit the commonplace sensitivity to the dimensions of the originating vocal tract. The present study, employing sinusoidal signals, raised this issue by testing the identification of target /bVt/, or b-vowel-t, syllables occurring in sentences that differed in the range of frequency variation of their component tones. Vowel quality of target syllables was influenced by this acoustic correlate of vocal-tract scale, implying that the perception of these nonvocal signals includes a process of vocal-tract scale, implying that the perception of these nonvocal signals includes a process of vocal-tract normalization. Converging evidence suggests that the perception of sinusoidal vowels depends on the relation among component tones and not on the phonetic likeness of each tone in isolation. The findings support the general claim that sinusoidal replicas of natural speech signals are perceptible phonetically because they preserve time-varying information present in natural signals.     

Predicting which words get recalled: Measures of free recall,availability, goodness,emotionality, and pronunciability for 925 nouns

To investigate the properties that make a word easy to recall, we added to existing norms for 925 nouns measures of availability, goodness, emotionality, pronunciability, and probability of recall in multiple-trial free recall. Availability, imagery, and emotionality were found to be the best predictors of which words were recalled. This result, which is stable across recall data collected in three separate laboratories, argues for the importance of availability as a predictor of recall and questions the role of the correlated variables of word frequency and meaningfulness. Consistent with earlier work on a smaller sample of words, six factors describe the numerous properties of words studied by psychologists. The six factors are composed of variables based on orthography, imagery and meaning, word frequency, recall, emotionality, and goodness.     

Digital daydreaming: Introducing the spontaneous smartphone checking scale

Smartphones are a ubiquitous part of many people's lives, but little is known about their impact on everyday thought processes. Here we introduce the spontaneous smartphone checking scale (SSCS)—which measures the tendency to direct attention toward one's smartphone, unpreceded by external prompts (e.g., notifications, or alerts) and with no specific conscious goal in mind, as a parallel to mind-wandering directed toward internal thoughts. The SSCS showed good psychometric properties and construct validity. It separated from measures of daydreaming and mind-wandering by not loading on dimensions related to self-consciousness, reflection, and rumination, but instead loading highly on a factor associated with other aspects of digital communication and concerns about public appearance on social media. This suggests that spontaneous smartphone checking serves different mental and social functions than internally generated spontaneous thought processes. We discuss possible long-term effects of spontaneous smartphone checking taking up time for internally generated spontaneous thoughts.     

The fisher-yates exact test and unequal sample sizes

A computational short cut suggested by Feldman and Klinger for the one-sided Fisher-Yates exact test is clarified and is extended to the calculation of probability values for certain two-sided tests when sample sizes are unequal.