Response error and processing biases in confidence judgment

Previous studies showed that random error can explain overconfidence effects typically observed in the literature. One of these studies concluded that, after accounting for random error effects in the data, there is little support for cognitive‐processing biases in confidence elicitation. In this paper, we investigate more closely the random error explanation for overconfidence. We generated data from four models of confidence and then estimated the magnitude of random error in the data. Our results show that, in addition to the true magnitude of random error specified in the simulations, the error estimates are influenced by important cognitive‐processing biases in the confidence elicitation process. We found that random error in the response process can account for the degree of overconfidence found in calibration studies, even when that overconfidence is actually caused by other factors. Thus, the error models say little about whether cognitive biases are present in the confidence elicitation process. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

No Evidence of Suicide Increase Following Terrorist Attacks in the United States: An Interrupted Time‐Series Analysis of September 11 and Oklahoma City

There is substantial evidence of detrimental psychological sequelae following disasters, including terrorist attacks. The effect of these events on extreme responses such as suicide, however, is unclear. We tested competing hypotheses about such effects by employing autoregressive integrated moving average techniques to model the impact of September 11 and the Oklahoma City bombing on monthly suicide counts at the local, state, and national level. Unlike prior studies that provided conflicting evidence, rigorous time series techniques revealed no support for an increase or decrease in suicides following these events. We conclude that while terrorist attacks produce subsequent psychological morbidity and may affect self and collective efficacy well beyond their immediate impact, these effects are not strong enough to influence levels of suicide mortality.     

Evaluation of a comprehensive inpatient rational-emotive therapy program: Some preliminary data

Mental health practitioners are faced with a profound challenge surrounding the prevalence of adult mental disorders, the need for inpatient treatment programs, and the costs of such programs. This paper describes the development of an adult inpatient psychiatric program based on Rational-Emotive Therapy. Specific elements of this program are described briefly, and preliminary outcome data presented on 372 patients. Concerns and future directions are also discussed. Development of adult inpatient psychiatric programs based on Rational-Emotive Therapy would appear to be one method of providing effective and cost-efficient treatment within the current cost-containment atmosphere of psychiatric treatment.Dr. Nottingham is an Associate Fellow and Approved Supervisor of the Institute for Rational-Emotive Therapy. He is in independent practice with Germantown Psychological Associates, P.C. and is Director of Psychology at Parkwood Hospital, Olive Branch, MS. Dr. Neimeyer is an Associate Professor and Director of Clinical Training in the Department of Psychology of Memphis State University. He has written extensively in the areas of cognitive and constructivist psychotherapy, and is co-editor of the International Journal of Personal Construct Psychology.The authors would like to thank Kat Bagley, Joe Grillo, Ivey Bright, Brooke Bensen, Cathy Michas, Brad Barris, Lori Passmore, David Wilkins, and Dee Conrad for their help with data collection. Additionally, without the assistance and support of the Parkwood Hospital administration and staff, neither this treatment program nor this paper could have been developed.Portions of this paper based on earlier data analyses were presented at the Mississippi Psychological Association Convention, September, 1990. This research was conducted at Parkwood Hospital.     

Changes in energy expenditure and work during response acquisition in rats

The principle of least effort predicts that behavior will tend to maximum efficiency. To test this prediction, changes in the energy expended (VO2) and work performed per reinforcement were monitored continuously as rats learned to press a beam with a criterion force for liquid food rewards. All 12 subjects exhibited significant decreases in energy expended per reinforcement over the 16 days of observation. Of these, 10 subjects also decreased the work performed per reinforcement. Analyses of motor performance were undertaken to determine how motor programs for changing efficiency were generated. The 10 animals showing decreased work reinforcement also exhibited significant decreases in the variability of temporal and kinetic response features and in mean response magnitude (time integral of force or work per response) as a function of practice. Adjustments in work output were primarily accomplished by modifying temporal response features (response duration and, initially, interresponse time). The kinetic features (response recruitment and peak force) remained relatively constant for these animals. The remaining 2 subjects differed in that response recruitment increased after Day 9, resulting in progressively larger amounts of work being performed to earn each reinforcement, and the interval between successive reinforcements decreased.     

Delusions and hallucinations as a reflection of the subcultural milieu among psychotic patients of the 1930s and 1980s

Delusions and hallucinations reported in the social histories of 150 patients admitted to an East Texas state hospital during the 1930s and of 150 patients admitted during the 1980s were examined for content that would characterize and contrast the patient subcultural milieu of the two time periods. Patients admitted during the 1930s tended to reflect the material deprivation and personal powerlessness of the great depression in delusions of great wealth and positive "special powers." The hallucinatory visions and voices of the 1980s patients reflected a more threatening and negative subcultural milieu, with more visions of blood, snakes, and dead people or animals. Command hallucinations to hurt, to kill, or to do "perverse things" would also suggest that the subculture milieu of the 1980s had become more dangerous.     

The borderline diagnosis and integration of self

To try to encompass what is meant by borderline with parameters that are too delineating can lead to conceptual difficulties and confusion for several reasons: The human psyche is too complex and probably has too much of the quality of a gestalt to be understood adequately by dichotomizing thinking; an individual does not experience himself as operating in discrete units, but as a unified whole; and the most characteristic manifest quality of the borderline picture is its tendency toward a chaotic functioning that somehow always spills over any defining boundaries which are set up to attain conceptual containment. If we then accept our limitations on the precision and order with which we can comprehend it, the understanding of borderline might be supplemented by seeing it in terms of the subjective experience of an integrated self. This offers a more holistic approach that tends not to be so subject to objectifying compartmentalization. It is more in tune with the subjective experiencing a person has of that which defines and moves him in the world. And it offers a referent axis along which the distance one has traveled in the borderline direction might be gleaned. Finally, the relationship of the borderline diagnosis to character disorder might be looked this way: The diagnosis does not refer to a particular character disorder or to a group of disorders. It emerges in all character pathology to the degree that the experiencing of an integrated and whole sense of self, which is at the heart of character structure, is diminished.     

The psychological cost of waiting

The study of any problem involving waiting situations invariably assumes that people dislike having to wait. The analysis of queueing problems usually prescribes that some costs should be associated with the time people spend waiting to be served. These are usually considered to be of an economic nature, though the existence of other costs of a psychological nature is accepted. It is generally accepted that after having to wait for a certain amount of time, anxiety and stress start to build up in an individual, due both to the sense of waste and the uncertainty involved in a waiting situation. This work provides a theoretical basis for analysing this building up process as it occurs during the waiting period. It is proved that, under very general conditions, the resulting psychological stress accumulated during the process is a marginal increasing function of the waiting time, and some strategies to minimise it are developed. The results obtained give theoretical support to the usual assumptions underlying the development of systems to provide “real time” information to people in waiting situations. This is especially important in the operation of public transportation systems. The results also provide theoretical support to the “convex” treatment usually given to the waiting cost function in queueing problems.     

Nonprofessional counselors: Revisiting selection and impact issues

This study examined two issues related to the use of nonprofessional counselors (n = 159) within the context of a diversion program for juvenile offenders. First, the relationship of the nonprofessionals' personality traits and general attitudes to client outcome was examined. No statistically significant correlations were observed. Second, the differential impact of various training and supervision factors was examined in terms of nonprofessional satisfaction, attitudes, and locus of control. Results suggested that training intensity, training content, and supervision setting may influence nonprofessionals' attitudes towards various social groups and their satisfaction with the nonprofessional experience.