Thinking through uncertainty: nonconsequential reasoning and choice.

When thinking under uncertainty, people often do not consider appropriately each of the relevant branches of a decision tree, as required by consequentialism. As a result they sometimes violate Savage's sure-thing principle. In the Prisoner's Dilemma game, for example, many subjects compete when they know that the opponent has competed and when they know that the opponent has cooperated, but cooperate when they do not know the opponent's response. Newcomb's Problem and Wason's selection task are also interpreted as manifestations of nonconsequential decision making and reasoning. The causes and implications of such behavior, and the notion of quasi-magical thinking, are discussed.     

Gender preferences of pregnant women and emotional reaction to information regarding fetal gender and postpartum: An examination of freud's view about motivation for motherhood

Freud (1933) suggested that women enter motherhood with a motivation to compensate for anatomical and psychological inferiority. This motivation is reflected in the desire to bear a son. Freud's idea was investigated by examining pregnant women's preferences regarding fetal gender and their emotional reactions (anxiety and depression) to information about fetal gender following an ultrasound examination and postpartum. Subjects were first-time and third-time pregnant women. In the third-time pregnant group only women who had two previous children of the same gender were investigated. First-time pregnant women did not express a predominant preference for any gender, third-time pregnant women preferred a child of a gender they did not have. In the first pregnancy, after the examination, subjects experienced a significant decrease in depression, and postpartum a significant elevation in both emotions. Preference and information about fetal gender affected depression only when they interacted with the time of measurement. In the third pregnancy, anxiety and depression were highest after the examination and the strongest elevation in both emotions was reported by women who had two sons, preferred a daughter and were informed they will deliver a son. The findings in both pregnancies put doubt on Freud's ideas about the motivation for motherhood, and suggest that social factors may also play a part in determining mother's attitude and emotional reactions towards fetal and neonate's gender.     

THE DISJUNCTION EFFECT IN CHOICE UNDER UNCERTAINTY

Abstract —One of the basic axioms of the rational theory of decision under uncertainty IS Savage's (1954) sure-thing principle (STP) It states that if prospect x is preferred to y knowing that Event A occurred, and if x IS preferred to y knowing that A did not occur, then x should be preferred to y even when it is not known whether A occurred We present examples in which the decision maker has good reasons for accepting x if A occurs, and different reasons for accepting X if A does not occur Not knowing whether or not A occurs, however, the decision maker may lack a clear reason for accepting X and may opt for another option We suggest that, in the presence of uncertainty, people are often reluctant to think through the implications of each outcome and, as a result, may violate STP This interpretation is supported by the observation that STP is satisfied when people are made aware of their preferences given each outcome     

Effects of early hospital-based intervention on mothers and their preterm infants

Mothers of eight Israeli preterm infants were exposed to a standardized but individualized intervention during their stay in the hospital and before their infants were discharged. Mothers and infants in the intervention group were compared to eight control subjects using various outcome measures. While the intervention did not affect maternal personal attitudes and feelings, it positively affected the mother-infant interactions and mothers' perceptions of their infants. The importance of individualized interventions with parents of preterm infants is discussed.     

Extracting the coherent core of human probability judgement: a research program for cognitive psychology

Human intuition is a rich and useful guide to uncertain events in the environment but suffers from probabilistic incoherence in the technical sense. Developing methods for extracting a coherent body of judgement that is maximally consistent with a person's intuition is a challenging task for cognitive psychology, and also relevant to the construction of artificial expert systems. The present article motivates this problem, and outlines one approach to it.     

Epistemic needs and learned helplessness

This study assesses the impact of non-specific epistemic needs—the need for structure and the fear of invalidity—on expectancy of control and performance following unsolvable problems. Subjects answered a questionnaire tapping their non-specific epistemic needs and were exposed to either no feedback or failure in unsolvable problems. Then their expectancies of control and performance were assessed. The results showed that a high need for structure was associated with a transfer of the expectancy of uncontrollability and worse performance following failure. The results are discussed in terms of Kruglanski's lay epistemic theory.     

The influence of task instruction on action coding: constraint setting or direct coding?

In 3 experiments, the authors manipulated response instructions for 2 concurrently performed tasks. Specifically, the authors' instructions described left and right keypresses on a manual task either as left versus right or as blue versus green keypresses and required either "left" versus "right" or "blue" versus "green" concurrent verbalizations. When instructions for responses on the 2 tasks were in terms of location (Experiment 1) or color (Experiments 2a and 2b), then compatible responses on the tasks were faster than incompatible responses. However, when the verbal task required "left" versus "right" responses but instructions for manual keypresses referred to blue versus green (Experiments 3a and 3b), then no response compatibility effects were observed. These results suggest that response labels used in the instruction directly determine the codes that are used to control responding.