An evaluation of the reliability of probability judgments across response modes and over time

Despite the importance of probability assessment methods in behavioral decision theory and decision analysis, little attention has been directed at evaluating their reliability and validity. In fact, no comprehensive study of reliability has been undertaken. Since reliability is a necessary condition for validity, this oversight is significant. The present study was motivated by that oversight. We investigated the reliability of probability measures derived from three response modes: numerical probabilities, pie diagrams, and odds. Unlike previous studies, the experiment was designed to distinguish systematic deviations in probability judgments, such as those due to experience or practice, from random deviations. It was found that subjects assessed probabilities reliably for all three assessment methods regardless of the reliability measures employed. However, a small but statistically significant decrease over time in the magnitudes of assessed probabilities was observed. This effect was linked to a decrease in subjects overconfidence during the course of the experiment.     

Pure mutism due to simultaneous bilateral lenticulostriate artery territory infarction

A case of pure mutism without pseudobulbar palsy and other neurological findings resulting from simultaneous bilateral lenticulostriate artery territory infarction is presented. A 45-year-old woman suffered a transient ischemic attack with nonfluent aphasia and right hemiparesis. Six months later, she developed pure mutism without oral apraxia, pseudobulbar signs, and motor deficits. Magnetic resonance imaging revealed bilateral infarction in the lentiform nucleus regions. In the available data, there is only one report of simultaneous bilateral lenticulostriate infarction. To date, in all reported cases of mutism of subcortical vascular origin there are also various degrees of pseudobulbar signs and motor deficits and the responsible lesions are mostly consecutive. The case presented here is the first to show pure vascular mutism without other neurological findings.     

Contrast effects in judgmental forecasting when assessing the implications of worst and best case scenarios

Two experiments investigated whether individuals' forecasts of the demand for products and a stock market index assuming a best or worst case scenario depend on whether they have seen a single scenario in isolation or whether they have also seen a second scenario presenting an opposing view of the future. Normatively, scenarios should be regarded as belonging to different plausible future worlds so that the judged implications of one scenario should not be affected when other scenarios are available. However, the results provided evidence of contrast effects in that the presentation of a second “opposite” scenario led to more extreme forecasts consistent with the polarity of the original scenario. In addition, people were more confident about their forecasts based on a given scenario when two opposing scenarios were available. We examine the implications of our findings for the elicitation of point forecasts and judgmental prediction intervals and the biases that are often associated with them.     

Teaching Pedestrian Skills to Individuals with Developmental Disabilities

The purpose of the present study was to examine the effectiveness of most to least prompting on teaching pedestrian skills to individuals with developmental disabilities. Five individuals with developmental disabilities were taught three different pedestrian skills, all related to crossing the streets, using simulation activities on a road model in the gym of their school. A multiple probe design across behaviors was used to evaluate the effects of most to least prompting. The results of the study revealed that most to least prompting was effective in teaching pedestrian skills. The subjects learned each of the skills and managed to generalize these skills to the actual city traffic.     

Correlates of Depressive and Anxiety Symptoms Among the Caregivers of Leukemic Children

This study aims to reveal correlates of depressive and anxiety symptoms among the Turkish caregivers of leukemic children (n?=?100). The effects of demographic variables, satisfaction of the basic needs, performance on daily activities, and coping strategies on outcome variables were investigated by hierarchical regression. Accordingly, older age, lower reported income, higher number of other children to be looked after, lower levels of satisfaction of basic needs, and more use of emotion focused coping were associated with higher levels of both depressive and anxiety symptoms. Moreover, caregivers with lower education reported more depressive symptoms, and higher performance on daily activities predicted more anxiety symptoms.     

Results of a Citation Analysis of the Career Counselling Field from an African Perspective

The study examined research and trends in career counselling published in selected professional sources during the period 1980–2010. Citation analysis was used in this study to investigate documents which were indexed in the Web of Science related to career counselling. Career counselling and related keywords were used jointly in the search for documents. There were a total of 730 documents judged to be relevant to the field of career counselling and were citation analysed. The number of citations related to the career counselling field has been increasing continuously since 2000. Research publications on career counselling are projected to increase for both South African authors and the authors of other African countries.     

Professional vs. amateur judgment accuracy: The case of foreign exchange rates

Highly knowledgeable people often fail to achieve highly accurate judgments, a phenomenon sometimes called the “process-performance paradox.” The present research tested for this paradox in foreign exchange (FX) rate forecasting. Forty professional and 57 sophisticated amateur forecasters made one-day and one-week-ahead FX predictions in deterministic and probabilistic formats. Among the conclusions indicated by the results are: (a) professional accuracy usually surpasses amateur accuracy, although many amateurs outperform many professionals; (b) professionals appear to achieve high proficiency via heavy reliance on predictive information (unlike what has been observed before, e.g., for stock prices); (c) forecast format strongly affects judgment accuracy and processes; and (d) apparent overconfidence can transform itself into underconfidence depending on when and how forecasters must articulate their confidence.     

Probability judgment accuracy for general knowledge. Cross-national differences and assessment methods

In this study we compare the probability judgment accuracy of subjects from the United States and Turkey. Three different response modes were employed — numerical probabilities, pie diagrams, and odds. The questions employed in the study were restricted to two-alternative, general-knowledge items. The observed pattern of differences in the components of probability judgment accuracy paralleled those of studies that have compared Western and Asian subjects. In particular, Turkish subjects exhibited better discrimination but worse calibration than their US counterparts. This result persisted across all three response modes. These findings lend support to previous assertions that observed cross-national differences arise from socioeconomic rather than Asian versus Western cultural differences. However, the consistency of the observed differences across response modes refutes a previous assertion that observed cultural differences are merely the result of response bias.     

Gender equality perceptions of preservice teachers: are they ready to teach it?

Social Psychology of Education - Ensuring gender equality in education is among the Sustainable Development Goals specified by the United Nations. Ensuring gender equality in teaching/learning...     

Does Problem Focused Coping Buffer the Effects of Trait Anxiety on Depressive Symptoms of Chronic Urticaria Patients?

The present study examined the moderating role of problem-focused coping in trait anxiety—depressive symptoms' relationship in patients with chronic urticaria (CU). Eighty-eight CU patients, who applied to an outpatient clinic of Clinical Immunology and Allergic Diseases, filled out a questionnaire set including State-Trait Anxiety Inventory, Ways of Coping Inventory, and Beck Depression Inventory. The results suggested that CU patients high on trait anxiety reported more depressive symptoms, and the ones using more problem-focused coping (PFC) strategies reported less depressive symptoms. Also, PFC strategies moderated trait anxiety-depressive symptoms relation. Accordingly, PFC strategies did not lead to any significant difference in CU patients who were low on trait anxiety in terms of the level of depressive symptoms. However, CU patients with high trait anxiety experienced significantly less depressive symptoms if they used more PFC strategies. The findings were discussed in the light of the relevant literature.