The probability of war in then-crises problem: Modeling new alternatives to Wright's solution

In hisStudy of War, Q. Wright considered a model for the probability of warP during a period ofn crises, and proposed the equationP=1–(1–p) ⁿ , wherep is the probability of war escalating at each individual crisis. This probability measure was formally derived recently by Cioffi-Revilla (1987), using the general theory of political reliability and an interpretation of the n-crises problem as a branching process. Two new, alternate solutions are presented here, one using D. Bernoulli's St. Petersburg Paradox as an analogue, the other based on the logic of conditional probabilities. Analysis shows that, while Wright's solution is robust with regard to the general overall behavior ofp andn, some significant qualitative and quantitative differences emerge from the alternative solutions. In particular,P converges to 1 only in a special case (Wright's) and not generally.C.C.-R. acknowledges support provided by the Merriam Laboratory for Analytic Political Research, the Research Board of the University of Illinois, and grant SES-84-00877 from the U.S. National Science Foundation.     

Strong Boethius’ Thesis and Consequential Implication

The paper studies the relation between systems of modal logic and systems of consequential implication, a non-material form of implication satisfying Aristotle's Thesis (p does not imply not p ) and Weak Boethius' Thesis (if p implies q, then p does not imply not q ). Definitions are given of consequential implication in terms of modal operators and of modal operators in terms of consequential implication. The modal equivalent of Strong Boethius' Thesis (that p implies q implies that p does not imply not q) is identified.     

The role of Canadian school psychologists: Perceptions of a sample from the general public

A sample of 77 subjects responded to a questionnaire designed to collect information about their perceptions of the role of school psychologists. The results indicate that overall the respondents had a fairly accurate sense of what a school psychologist does, although they overestimated the importance of psychotherapy as one of the school psychologist's functions. It is recommended that school psychologists more clearly specify their function when dealing with members of the general public.     

Individual differences in the study of human aggression

Excessive concern for simplicity has often led us to underestimate the complexity of aggression. Over the years, several scales related to aggression have been identified and validated both on adults and on children. Ultimately, two main higher order dimensions, emotional responsivity and proneness to aggression, repeatedly emerged in a series of second-order factor analysis. These dimensions are rather similar to two of the big five factors of personality: neuroticism/emotinal stability and hostility/agreeableness, respectively. Several studies corroborate the plausibility of a higher level bidimensional conceptualization of aggression that, while preserving the heuristic validity of looking for more specific constructs of aggression, can link the field of aggression to the field of personality. © 1994 Wiley-Liss, Inc.     

Mental representation of prepositional compounds: evidence from Italian agrammatic patients

The processing of Prepositional compounds (typical Neo-latin noun--noun modifications where a head noun is modified by a prepositional phrase, e.g., mulino a vento, windmill) was preliminarily studied with a group of six agrammatic aphasic patients, and, in more detail, with a further agrammatic patient (MB). Omission was the most frequent error type in naming, whereas in the other tasks (repetition, reading, writing, and completion) errors were mostly substitutions of the target preposition. This happened even with fully lexicalized compound forms, i.e., those forms where the linking preposition is syntactically and semantically opaque. These findings are interpreted in terms of a dual-route theory of lexical access to morphologically complex words.     

Is the unilateral lesion of the left substantia nigra pars compacta sufficient to induce working memory impairment in rats?

Adult male Wistar rats with a substantia nigra pars compacta (SNc) lesion induced by intranigral administration of 1 micromol 1-methyl-4-phenyl-1,2,3,6-tetrahydropyridine (MPTP) were used as a model of early phase Parkinson's disease (PD). This lesion caused a partial depletion of striatal dopamine (DA). The animals were submitted to a spatial working memory version of the water maze task in which they had to find a hidden (submersed) platform using online-maintained information that the platform remains in the same place during four consecutive trials, but that it is moved to another place every training day. Left, but not right SNc-lesioned rats were impaired in finding the platform in the second trial. This result suggests that the left SNc plays a key role in spatial working memory. Control experiments ruled out the possibility that motor impairment, sensory neglect, and/or impairment in the mental representation of the contralateral spatial environment had affected performance of the SNc-lesioned rats.     

A model of childhood perceived peer harassment: analyses of the Canadian National Longitudinal Survey of Children and Youth Data

The authors developed a model of childhood perceived peer harassment, using several personality, peer, and familial characteristics of victims, and tested it with children 10 to 11 years old (N = 3,434) drawn from the Canadian National Survey of Children and Youth, which is a stratified random sample of 22,831 households in Canada. A 3-step analytic procedure with 3 separate subsamples of the children was used to explore psychosocial correlates of peer harassment. Results from the latent variable path analysis (comparative fit index = .90) showed that victims are likely to feel anxious and disliked by their peers. Their parents reported using high levels of control and low levels of warmth with their children and reported high levels of depression and marital conflict themselves. These results are discussed from a social-cognitive perspective.     

Brain Gene Expression During REM Sleep Depends on Prior Waking Experience

In most mammalian species studied, two distinct and successive phases of sleep, slow wave (SW), and rapid eye movement (REM), can be recognized on the basis of their EEG profiles and associated behaviors. Both phases have been implicated in the offline sensorimotor processing of daytime events, but the molecular mechanisms remain elusive. We studied brain expression of the plasticity-associated immediate-early gene (IEG) zif-268 during SW and REM sleep in rats exposed to rich sensorimotor experience in the preceding waking period. Whereas nonexposed controls show generalized zif-268 down-regulation during SW and REM sleep, zif-268 is upregulated during REM sleep in the cerebral cortex and the hippocampus of exposed animals. We suggest that this phenomenon represents a window of increased neuronal plasticity during REM sleep that follows enriched waking experience.     

Presymptomatic Testing for Neurogenetic Diseases in Brazil: Assessing Who Seeks and Who Follows through with Testing

Diagnostic tests are available to detect several mutations related to adult-onset, autosomal dominant, neurodegenerative diseases. We aimed to describe our experience in a presymptomatic testing program run by the Brazilian Public Health System from 1999 to 2009. A total of 184 individuals were eligible for presymptomatic testing due to a risk for spinocerebellar ataxia (SCA) - SCA3 (80%), Huntington’s disease (11.9%), familial amyloidotic neuropathy (4.3%), SCA1, SCA2, SCA6, or SCA7. Most were women (70%), married (54%), and had children prior to presymptomatic testing (67%). Their mean age at entrance was 34 (SD = 11 years). Educational level was above the average Brazilian standard. After receipt of genetic counseling, 100 individuals (54%) decided to undergo testing; of these, 51 were carriers. Since no individual returned for post-test psychological evaluation, we conducted a subsequent survey, unrelated to test disclosures. We contacted 57 individuals of whom 31 agreed to participate (24 had been tested, 7 had not). Several ascertainment concerns relating to these numerous losses prevented us from generalizing our results from this second survey. We concluded that: decision-making regarding presymptomatic testing seems to be genuinely autonomous, since after genetic counseling half the individuals who asked for presymptomatic testing decided in favor and half decided against it; general characteristics of Brazilians who sought presymptomatic testing were similar to many European samples studied previously; and individuals at risk for SCA3 may be at greater risk of depression. Although no clear-cut reason emerged for rejection of follow-up psychological sessions after presymptomatic testing, this finding suggests adjustments to our presymptomatic testing program are necessary.