Confidence in judgments based on incomplete information: An investigation using both hypothetical and real gambles

This study assessed how confidence in judgments is affected by the need to make inferences about missing information. Subjects indicated their likelihood of taking each of a series of gambles based on both probability and payoff information or only one of these sources of information. They also rated their confidence in each likelihood judgment. Subjects in the Explicit Inference condition were asked to explicitly estimate the values of missing information before making their responses while subjects in the Implicit Inference condition were not. The manner in which probability information was framed was also manipulated. Experiment 1 employed hypothetical gambles and Experiment 2 employed gambles with real money. Expressed likelihood of taking gambles was higher when probability was phrased in terms of '% chance of winning' rather than '% chance of losing', but this difference was somewhat less with real gambles than with hypothetical gambles. Confidence ratings in each experiment were actually higher on incomplete information trials than on complete information trials in the Explicit Inference condition. Results were related to the general issue of confidence in judgments.     

Narrative discourse after closed head injury in children and adolescents.

This study examined narrative discourse in 20 children and adolescents at least 1 year after sustaining a head injury. Narratives were analyzed along the dimensions of language structure, information structure, and flow of information. Severity of impaired consciousness was associated with a significant reduction in the amount of language and information. The most important finding which emerged was the disruption in information structure. This pattern confirms the impression of disorganized discourse in severely injured children. Explanations for the disruption in information structure are explored in terms of the role of vocabulary, memory, and localization of lesion according to magnetic resonance imaging. In view of recent evidence that frontal lobe damage is associated with discourse formulation deficits in adults and is the most common site of focal lesion in closed head injury, we examined discourse patterns in individual patients with frontal lobe lesions. Preliminary data from our single-case studies suggest discourse patterns similar to those reported for adults with frontal lobe injuries.     

Evoked potentials and the study of sentence comprehension

Evoked brain potentials were used to monitor moment-by-moment decisions during language comprehension. Subjects read sentences containing temporary syntactic ambiguities for which one of the possible interpretations was semantically implausible. The N400 component of the evoked potential, which is sensitive to implausibility, was used to discover when during a sentence subjects made a decision about the ambiguity. The results demonstrate that readers try to interpret a syntactic ambiguity early in a sentence rather than waiting for disambiguating information. This introduces a new way to use brain activity to study sentence comprehension processes.     

Public self-Attention and personal standards: The impact of group composition

Increases in self-attention as a function of decreases in the relative size of one’s subgroup in a heterogeneous group context have been shown to result in increased regulation of behavior toward social (normative) standards for behavior. The present study demonstrated increased regulation of behavior toward a personal standard for behavior as a function of variations in group composition. One hundred twenty-five subjects individually completed the Creativity subscale of Scott’s Personal Value Scale assessing attitudes toward originality. They then completed a word-association task in groups ranging in size from 2 to 8. Originality of word-associations was determined by reference to previously established word-association norms and norms based on frequency of responses given in the present study. Results indicate that originality in responses increase as the relative size of one’s own subgroup decreases (indexing increases in self-attention) for subjects who value originality. Discussion centers on the distinction between experimentally manipulated public and private self-attention and standards that are adopted for behavioral self-regulation. Portions of this study were presented at the annual meeting of the Eastern Psychological Association, New York, April 1991.     

Isoluminance and contingent color aftereffects

In the typical induction of the orientation-contingent color aftereffect (CCAE), the stimuli are composed of elements that differ in both color and luminance. Three experiments are reported that show that chromatic contrast between stimulus elements is insufficient for the induction of the orientation-CCAE and that luminance contrast is necessary. These experiments expand on previous research concerned with the role of luminance contrast in the induction of orientation-CCAEs by eliminating alternative explanations.     

Effects of Acute Stress or Centrally Injected Interleukin-1beta on Neuropeptide Expression in the Immune System

Acute stress stimulates the expression and release of corticotropin-releasing hormone (CRH) and arginine vasopressin (AVP) from the hypothalamus, and the pro-opiomelanocortin products beta-endorphin and ACTH from the anterior pituitary. These neuropeptides are also expressed in immune tissues, and it has been proposed that they may modulate immune responses to stress through paracrine mechanisms. We subjected rats to restraint stress or central injection of interleukin (IL)-1beta to determine whether these acute stimuli can alter the expression of neuropeptides in the spleen and thymus. Restraint stress significantly increased the contents of all these neuropeptides in thymic, but not splenic, extracts. A single icv injection of IL-1beta increased contents of CRH, AVP, ACTH and beta-endorphin in the spleens of both sham-operated and adrenalectomised (ADX) rats. IL-1beta increased thymic contents of CRH and ACTH in sham-operated rats but these increases were not observed in ADX rats. These results suggest that the effects of IL-1beta on neuropeptide expression in the spleen are independent of glucocorticoids, whereas IL-1beta stimulation of neuropeptide expression in the thymus is dependent on circulating glucocorticoids. There were significant correlations between increases in CRH, ACTH and beta-endorphin in the spleen, and between CRH and ACTH in the thymus, consistent with the suggestion that IL-1beta-induced increases in ACTH and beta-endorphin may be mediated through CRH. These results provide evidence that stressors can directly influence neuropeptide expression in immune tissues. Thus stress may influence immune functions through paracrine mechanisms involving locally synthesised neuropeptides as well as through activation of the hypothalamo-pituitary-adrenal axis.     

Prepulse effects on magnitude estimation of startle-eliciting stimuli and startle responses

The present studies investigated the relationship between prepulse effects on the modification of the brainstem startle reflex and magnitude estimates of startle-eliciting stimuli. In Experiment 1, startle eyeblink responses were elicited in 24 students, half of whom were instructed to estimate the loudness of the startle stimulus (actual intensities of 80, 90, and 100 dB) and half of whom were instructed to estimate the magnitude of their eyeblink. When weak acoustic prepulses preceded the startle-eliciting stimulus, eyeblink amplitude was inhibited, and estimates of response magnitude decreased, but estimates of startle stimulus magnitude decreased only when 100-dB startle stimuli were presented. In Experiment 2, the same startle stimuli were preceded on some trials by a vibrotactile prepulse to the hand. In conditions in which startle amplitude was inhibited, startle stimulus magnitude estimates were not affected. This suggests that the effect of acoustic prepulses on 100-dB startle stimuli in Experiment 1 may have been due to loudness assimilation, an effect independent of the prepulse inhibition of startle responding.     

Maternal stress and pituitary-adrenal manipulations during pregnancy in rats: effects on morphology and sexual behavior of male offspring.

The purpose of the present study was to determine whether the demasculinizing and feminizing effects of prenatal stress (i.e., stress applied to the mother during pregnancy) in rats reported previously are mediated by activation of the maternal pituitary-adrenal axis. Neither whole-body restraint, with or without hyperthermia, nor ACTH treatment during the last third of gestation had any reliable effect on masculine or feminine sexual behavior in male Sprague-Dawley offspring, although these treatments produced maternal pathology and evidence of maternal adrenocorticoid release. Significant littermate similarity was found for almost every morphological and behavioral measure. Failure to control for the litter variable may account for many previously reported effects of prenatal stress on sexual behavior in rats. The discrepancy between the present and earlier findings is discussed in terms of methodological and theoretical considerations.