Windowed cross-correlation and peak picking for the analysis of variability in the association between behavioral time series

Cross-correlation and most other longitudinal analyses assume that the association between 2 variables is stationary. Thus, a sample of occasions of measurement is expected to be representative of the association between variables regardless of the time of onset or number of occasions in the sample. The authors propose a method to analyze the association between 2 variables when the assumption of stationarity may not be warranted. The method results in estimates of both the strength of peak association and the time lag when the peak association occurred for a range of starting values of elapsed time from the beginning of an experiment.     

Social support as a predictor of variability: an examination of the adjustment trajectories of recent widows

The variability pattern of emotional well-being in recent widows across a 98-day period beginning in the first month post-loss has previously been modeled by dynamical systems and shown to be an oscillating process that damps across time. The goal of the present study was to examine how variables that comprise the social support network predict characteristics of these emotional shifts in 28 recent widows. In the present study, emotional support seeking led to a steeper overall trend, whereas perceived control for social support led to a shallower overall trend. When examining intraindividual variability, instrumental support seeking predicted a slower damping rate. Understanding the individual differences in the variability patterns of recent widows is a necessary step in identifying the etiology of adjustment to widowhood.     

OpenMx 2.0: Extended Structural Equation and Statistical Modeling

The new software package OpenMx 2.0 for structural equation and other statistical modeling is introduced and its features are described. OpenMx is evolving in a modular direction and now allows a mix-and-match computational approach that separates model expectations from fit functions and optimizers. Major backend architectural improvements include a move to swappable open-source optimizers such as the newly written CSOLNP. Entire new methodologies such as item factor analysis and state space modeling have been implemented. New model expectation functions including support for the expression of models in LISREL syntax and a simplified multigroup expectation function are available. Ease-of-use improvements include helper functions to standardize model parameters and compute their Jacobian-based standard errors, access to model components through standard R $ mechanisms, and improved tab completion from within the R Graphical User Interface.     

Modeling Individual Damped Linear Oscillator Processes with Differential Equations: Using Surrogate Data Analysis to Estimate the Smoothing Parameter

Among the many methods available for modeling intraindividual time series, differential equation modeling has several advantages that make it promising for applications to psychological data. One interesting differential equation model is that of the damped linear oscillator (DLO), which can be used to model variables that have a tendency to fluctuate around some typical, or equilibrium, value. Methods available for fitting the damped linear oscillator model using differential equation modeling can yield biased parameter estimates when applied to univariate time series. The degree of this bias depends on a smoothing–like parameter, which balances the need for increasing smoothing to minimize error variance but not smoothing so much as to obscure change of interest. This article explores a technique that uses surrogate data analysis to select such a parameter, thereby producing approximately unbiased parameter estimates. Furthermore the smoothing parameter, which is usually researcher-selected, is produced in an automated manner so as to reduce the experience required by researchers to apply these methods. Focus is placed on the damped linear model; however, similar issues are expected with other differential equation models and other techniques in which parameter estimates depend on a smoothing parameter. An example using affect data from the Notre Dame Longitudinal Study of Aging (2004) is presented, which contrasts the use of a single smoothing parameter for all individuals versus use of a smoothing parameter for each individual.     

Comparing Computational Power

It is common practice to compare the computational power ofdifferent models of computation. For example, the recursivefunctions are strictly more powerful than the primitive recursivefunctions, because the latter are a proper subset of the former(which includes Ackermann's function). Side-by-side with this"containment" method of measuring power, it is also standardto base comparisons on "simulation". For example, one says thatthe (untyped) lambda calculus is as powerful—computationallyspeaking—as the partial recursive functions, because thelambda calculus can simulate all partial recursive functionsby encoding the natural numbers as Church numerals. The problem is that unbridled use of these two distinct waysof comparing power allows one to show that some computationalmodels (sets of partial functions) are strictly stronger thanthemselves! We argue that a better definition is that modelA is strictly stronger than B if A can simulate B via some encoding,whereas B cannot simulate A under any encoding. We show thatwith this definition, too, the recursive functions are strictlystronger than the primitive recursive. We also prove that therecursive functions, partial recursive functions, and Turingmachines are "complete", in the sense that no injective encodingcan make them equivalent to any "hypercomputational" model.¹     

Emotion as a thermostat: representing emotion regulation using a damped oscillator model

The authors present in this study a damped oscillator model that provides a direct mathematical basis for testing the notion of emotion as a self-regulatory thermostat. Parameters from this model reflect individual differences in emotional lability and the ability to regulate emotion. The authors discuss concepts such as intensity, rate of change, and acceleration in the context of emotion, and they illustrate the strengths of this approach in comparison with spectral analysis and growth curve models. The utility of this modeling approach is illustrated using daily emotion ratings from 179 college students over 52 consecutive days. Overall, the damped oscillator model provides a meaningful way of representing emotion regulation as a dynamic process and helps identify the dominant periodicities in individuals' emotions.     

Modeling Noisy Data with Differential Equations Using Observed and Expected Matrices

Complex intraindividual variability observed in psychology may be well described using differential equations. It is difficult, however, to apply differential equation models in psychological contexts, as time series are frequently short, poorly sampled, and have large proportions of measurement and dynamic error. Furthermore, current methods for differential equation modeling usually consider data that are atypical of many psychological applications. Using embedded and observed data matrices, a statistical approach to differential equation modeling is presented. This approach appears robust to many characteristics common to psychological time series.     

Time Delay Embedding Increases Estimation Precision of Models of Intraindividual Variability

This paper investigates the precision of parameters estimated from local samples of time dependent functions. We find that time delay embedding, i.e., structuring data prior to analysis by constructing a data matrix of overlapping samples, increases the precision of parameter estimates and in turn statistical power compared to standard independent rows of panel data. We show that the reason for this effect is that the sign of estimation bias depends on the position of a misplaced data point if there is no a priori knowledge about initial conditions of the time dependent function. Hence, we reason that the advantage of time delayed embedding is likely to hold true for a wide variety of functions. We support these conclusions both by mathematical analysis and two simulations.