Individual differences in reverse Hindsight bias: I never thought something like chernobyl would happen. Did I?

Hindsight bias was studied in the context of the accident in the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, which took place on April 26th 1986. An individual difference factor which relates to the motivation to process information, need for cognition, was expected to moderate the occurrence of hindsight bias. Probability estimates of many casualties due to the use of nuclear power in The Netherlands were obtained from 212 individuals two months before the accident in Chernobyl. These estimates were compared with similar estimates made in hindsight by the same individuals five months after the accident. Loglinear Analyses reveal a systematic hindsight bias. However, the direction of the bias was contrary to expectations. In hindsight, individuals gave lower probabilities than they actually did two months before the Chernobyl accident. These results reveal a reverse hindsight bias. As hypothesized, need for cognition moderates hindsight bias: individuals low and medium in need for cognition express a systematic reverse hindsight bias, while individuals high in need for cognition do not. High need for cognition individuals also show higher literal consistency between the two measurements, which supports a memory explanation of the moderating effect of need for cognition.     

Stochastic ordering using the latent trait and the sum score in polytomous IRT models

In a restricted class of item response theory (IRT) models for polytomous items the unweighted total score has monotone likelihood ratio (MLR) in the latent trait. MLR implies two stochastic ordering (SO) properties, denoted SOM and SOL, which are both weaker than MLR, but very useful for measurement with IRT models. Therefore, these SO properties are investigated for a broader class of IRT models for which the MLR property does not hold.In this study, first a taxonomy is given for nonparametric and parametric models for polytomous items based on the hierarchical relationship between the models. Next, it is investigated which models have the MLR property and which have the SO properties. It is shown that all models in the taxonomy possess the SOM property. However, counterexamples illustrate that many models do not, in general, possess the even more useful SOL property.Hemker's research was supported by the Netherlands Research Council, Grant 575-67-034. Junker's research was supported in part by the National Institutes of Health, Grant CA54852, and by the National Science Foundation, Grant DMS-94.04438.     

Validation and Standardization of the Dutch Trauma Symptom Checklist for Young Children in a Normative and Clinical Sample

The study aimed to describe the psychometric properties of the Dutch version of the Trauma Symptom Checklist for Young Children (TSCYC) in normative and clinical populations in the Netherlands. Caregivers’ ratings on the TSCYC were obtained for 1,802 children from the normal population, and for 515 children from a clinical population of traumatized children. In the clinical sample, additional measures were taken. The internal consistency and test-retest reliability of TSCYC scales were adequate. Confirmatory factor analysis showed acceptable fit on the putative scale structure. Regarding criterion validity, the clinical sample scored significantly higher on all clinical scales when compared to the normal population sample. Within the clinical sample, significant associations were found between TSCYC scales and convergent scales of other instruments. The Posttraumatic Stress-Total subscale demonstrated excellent discriminative ability between traumatized children and children from the normal population. The Dutch version of the TSCYC proved a valid and reliable instrument to measure trauma symptoms in young children through caregiver report, similar to the original American version. Further comparisons with diagnostic interviews are warranted.     

Residential mental health assessment within Dutch criminal cases: a discussion

In Dutch criminal cases in which doubts arise about the defendant's mental health, a forensic assessment will be requested. This is provided either by the multidisciplinary staff of residential clinics who conduct forensic evaluations for the court, or by mental health professionals contracted on a part-time basis by district courts. This article discusses the procedures applied in such cases as well as the relevant legal provisions. It focuses particularly on the clinical observation, evaluation, and reporting that is carried out over a number of weeks in the residential setting of the Pieter Baan Centrum. Specific attention is paid to procedures applied in this clinic. It is suggested that Dutch procedures for the use of mental health expertise can best be characterized by three aspects: multidisciplinary observation and reporting, the use of a sliding scale for indicating degree of responsibility, and, finally, the involvement and payment of experts by the state as such, rather than by the prosecution and/or the defense. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A slow component of classic Stroop interference

The interference in colour naming may extend beyond critical Stroop trials. This “slow” effect was first discovered in emotional Stroop tasks, but is extended here to classical Stroop. In two experiments, meaningless coloured letter strings followed a colour word or neutral word. Student participants (Experiment 1), and 18 stroke patients and 18 matched controls (Experiment 2) showed substantial interference by incongruent colour words, both in the word trial (fast component) and in the subsequent string trial (slow component). Different patient subgroups emerged from the comparison of Stroop performance with the controls. An association of fast and slow components was only found in one subgroup. Exploratory analyses revealed no clear differences in damage location between subgroups. Fast interference caused by colour-meaning conflict may be specific for classical Stroop, but the broader occurrence of slow effects suggests a more generalised process of disengagement from attention-demanding stimuli.     

On the nature of attitude–behavior relations: the strong guide,the weak follow

This study investigated the role of attitude strength as a moderator variable with regard to the direction of the relation between attitudes and behavior. The hypothesis was tested that strong attitudes guide behavior, whereas weak attitudes follow behavior in accordance with self‐perception principles. The study (N = 106) consisted of two sessions. In session 1, attitudes and attitude strength (certainty, importance, centrality) towards Greenpeace were measured. One week later, participants returned to the laboratory (session 2) and were given the opportunity to donate money to Greenpeace. After the participants' decision to donate money or not, attitudes towards Greenpeace were measured again. The results were consistent with the predictions. First, strong attitudes were more predictive of donation behavior than weak attitudes. Moreover, session 2 attitudes of weak attitude participants were influenced by their donation behavior, whereas no such effect was found among strong attitude participants. Finally, strong attitudes were also found to be more stable over time than weak attitudes. The results provide a complete overview of the moderating role of attitude strength with regard to the bi‐directional attitude‐behavior relationship. Results are discussed in the light of attitude retrieval versus attitude‐construction processes. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

From repetition to conviction: Attitude accessibility as a determinant of attitude certainty

The present experiment investigated the influence of attitude accessibility on several meta-attitudinal strength measures. It was predicted that certainty and perceived likelihood of change, i.e., commitment-related attributes of attitude strength, are influenced by changes in attitude accessibility, while no effects were expected for importance and perceived centrality to values and the self, i.e., centrality-related attributes. Accessibility was manipulated by having participants express their attitudes either repeatedly or only once. As hypothesized, accessibility and measures of commitment were enhanced after repeated expression compared to single expression. Furthermore, mediation analyses supported the idea that subjective commitment may be inferred from the ease of attitude retrieval. Centrality-related attributes were found to be unaffected by the accessibility manipulation. The results are discussed in the light of a multi-dimensional structure of attitude strength and antecedent processes of meta-cognitive attributes of strength.     

There is No Education After Postmodernism

Studies in Philosophy and Education -