“To hope was to expect”: The impact of perspective taking and forecast type on wishful thinking

When forecasting future outcomes, people tend to believe that the outcomes they want to happen are also likely to happen. Despite numerous attempts, few systematic factors have been identified that consistently and robustly reduce wishful thinking (WT) effects. Using elections and sporting event outcomes as contexts, three experiments examined whether taking the perspective of a political rival or opposing fan reduced WT effects. We also examined whether making deliberative (vs. intuitive-based) forecasts was associated with lower WT effects. Online adult samples of U.S. citizens from Mechanical Turk and U.S. college students provided their preferences and forecasts for the U.S. presidential election (Experiments 1 and 2) and a sports competition outcome (Experiment 3). Critically, some participants received perspective taking prompts immediately before providing forecasts. First, results revealed reductions in WT effects when participants engaged in perspective taking. Interestingly, this effect only emerged when intuitive-based forecasts were made first (Experiment 3). Second, intuitive-based forecasts revealed stronger evidence of WT effects. Finally, we found that perspective taking and forming forecasts deliberately promoted a shift in focus away from preferences and toward a consideration of the relative strengths and weaknesses of the entities (i.e., candidates and teams). Theoretical implications for understanding WT effects and applied implications for developing interventions are discussed.     

Religion,Type A behavior,and health

In a study of air traffic controllers, religious differences are found in the way Type A behavior is associated with several health status indicators. Associations between the Jenkins Activity Survey (JAS) and physical illness incidence, health-promotive behavior, diastolic and systolic blood pressure, subjective distress and impulse control problems, and alcohol consumption are examined by religious attendance, religious affiliation, and change in affiliation. Findings confirm that Type A does not vary significantly by religion. However, there are several significant findings between Type A and various health indicators. Type A is associated with illness incidence, overall and more strongly in several religion, subgroups. Type A and alcohol consumption are related positively in Protestants and converts, and negatively in churchgoing Catholics. Type A is related to impulse control problems in churchgoing Protestants and to subjective distress in churchgoing Catholics. Finally, in individuals with weak or no religious ties, Type A is associated with lower blood pressure. This last finding suggests that in some people (for example, the irreligious or unchurched), the coronary-prone behavior pattern may have cardiovascular effects which are salutary in at least one respect.The authors wish to thank Dr. Kyriakos S. Markides and Laura A. Ray for their assistance with this study. Address requests for reprints to Dr. Levin at the Institute of Gerontology, 300 North Ingalls, Ann Arbor, MI 48109.     

Response latency measurements to visual cognitive tasks by normal hearing and deaf subjects

Visual cognitive differences between hearing (N = 16) and deaf (N = 32) high-school and middle-school students were studied. Visual tasks were presented on a microcomputer and response latencies were collected. Significant differences were noted between the deaf and normal groups but not between total communication deaf and oral deaf students. These differences support the hypothesis that deaf students prefer a visual cognitive strategy. Implications for educating the deaf are discussed.     

Ratings of Orally Presented Verbal Expressions of Probability by a Heterogeneous Sample

Verbal expressions of probability are used in daily conversations, physician-physician and physician-patient communications, and questionnaire and interview responses. To assess the degree of agreement among English-speaking Australian adults in allocating numerical probabilities to these verbal expressions of probability, 966 interviewees provided estimates for 60 isolated expressions of probability and a sequence of seven items placed in a sequence. Means and median scores appeared to be consistent with common sense and with findings from other countries. Mirror-imaged terms were neither symmetrical nor equidistant, with the means and medians for the positive terms being closer to the mid-points of the scale than the means and medians of the negative terms. Items in a sequence of probability terms showed greater symmetry and less variability than isolated expressions. For most items, there was an unacceptably high level of within-subject and between-subject variability. Although subjects with higher levels of education and/ or mathematics education showed less variability, these factors accounted for very little of the variance. The greater variability in Australian results relative to those reported elsewhere was partly attributed to the use of interviews rather than questionnaires. There were no particular stems that yielded greater consistency. It was concluded that the use of these expressions leads to very imprecise communication.     

Degree of learning,interpolated tests,and rate of forgetting

The purpose of the two experiments reported here was to observe the effects of degree of learning, interpolated tests, and retention interval, primarily on the rate of forgetting of a list of words, and secondarily on hypermnesia for those words. In the first experiment, all the subjects had one study trial on a list of 20 common words, followed by two tests of recall. Half of the subjects had further study and test trials until they had learned the words to a criterion of three correct consecutive recalls. Two days later, half of the subjects under each learning condition returned for four retention tests, and 16 days later, all the subjects returned for four tests. Experiment 2 was similar, except that all the subjects had at least three study trials followed by four recall tests on Day 1, intermediate tests were given 2 or 7 days later, and they all had final tests 14 days later. The results showed that rate of forgetting was attenuated by an additional intermediate set of tests but not by criterion learning. Hypermnesia was generally found over the tests that were given after a retention interval of 2 or more days. The best predictor of the amount of hypermnesia over a set of tests was the difference between overall cumulative recall and net recall on the first test of the set.