Response error and processing biases in confidence judgment

Previous studies showed that random error can explain overconfidence effects typically observed in the literature. One of these studies concluded that, after accounting for random error effects in the data, there is little support for cognitive‐processing biases in confidence elicitation. In this paper, we investigate more closely the random error explanation for overconfidence. We generated data from four models of confidence and then estimated the magnitude of random error in the data. Our results show that, in addition to the true magnitude of random error specified in the simulations, the error estimates are influenced by important cognitive‐processing biases in the confidence elicitation process. We found that random error in the response process can account for the degree of overconfidence found in calibration studies, even when that overconfidence is actually caused by other factors. Thus, the error models say little about whether cognitive biases are present in the confidence elicitation process. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Bias in the use of base rates: Racial prejudice in decision-making

Two studies investigated biases in the use of base rate information when assessing the probability of a witness' accurate identification of a white or West Indian as a burglar. An adapted version of the Kahneman-Tversky cab problem was used, to provide a social decision in which biases could be measured against some normative standard. Ethnicity of youth (white/West Indian) and nature of base rate (incidental/causal) were manipulated in a 2 × 2 between-subjects design. A significant interaction effect revealed that subjects took no account of the base rate for a West Indian subject, but used the base rate only when it was causal and the youth was white. This ‘prejudice effect’ against a West Indian youth and ‘exoneration effect’ for a white youth were replicated in a second study, using a microcomputer and chronometric analyses. Results are discussed in terms of heuristic decision-making, social schemata, and the cognitive versus motivational bases of bias in the use of base rates.     

Insight-oriented group psychotherapy of latency-age children in an acute care setting

Traditional approaches to group therapy with latency-age children have stressed activity and nonverbal therapeutic interventions. These approaches originated in the 1940s with Slavson's activity aroup therapy. A review of the literature of the past 25 years reveals that many clinicians have increasingly employed verbal techniques with latencyage groups. Most such reports describe groups for latency-age out-patients. In this paper, a verbal, interpretive technique for group therapy with latency-age inpatients is described. Clinical vignettes are included to illustrate this technique. Our experience suggests that such a technique can become an integral part of the inpatient treatment program for the latency-age child.     

On the Relation Between Time Perception and the Timing of Motor Action: Evidence for a Temporal Oscillator Controlling the Timing of Movement

Studies of time estimation have provided evidence that human time perception is determined by an internal clock containing a temporal oscillator and have also provided estimates of the frequency of this oscillator (Treisman, Faulkner, Naish, & Brogan, 1992; Treisman & Brogan, 1992). These estimates were based on the observation that when the intervals to be estimated are accompanied by auditory clicks that recur at certain critical rates, perturbations in time estimation occur. To test the hypothesis that the mechanisms that underlie the perception of time and those that control the timing of motor performance are similar, analogous experiments were performed on motor timing, with the object of seeing whether evidence for a clock would be obtained and if so whether its properties resemble those of the time perception clock. The prediction was made that perturbations in motor timing would be seen at the same or similar critical auditory click rates. The experiments examined choice reaction time and typing. The results support the hypothesis that a temporal oscillator paces motor performance and that this oscillator is similar to the oscillator underlying time perception. They also provide an estimate of the characteristic frequency of the oscillator.     

Evaluation of a comprehensive inpatient rational-emotive therapy program: Some preliminary data

Mental health practitioners are faced with a profound challenge surrounding the prevalence of adult mental disorders, the need for inpatient treatment programs, and the costs of such programs. This paper describes the development of an adult inpatient psychiatric program based on Rational-Emotive Therapy. Specific elements of this program are described briefly, and preliminary outcome data presented on 372 patients. Concerns and future directions are also discussed. Development of adult inpatient psychiatric programs based on Rational-Emotive Therapy would appear to be one method of providing effective and cost-efficient treatment within the current cost-containment atmosphere of psychiatric treatment.Dr. Nottingham is an Associate Fellow and Approved Supervisor of the Institute for Rational-Emotive Therapy. He is in independent practice with Germantown Psychological Associates, P.C. and is Director of Psychology at Parkwood Hospital, Olive Branch, MS. Dr. Neimeyer is an Associate Professor and Director of Clinical Training in the Department of Psychology of Memphis State University. He has written extensively in the areas of cognitive and constructivist psychotherapy, and is co-editor of the International Journal of Personal Construct Psychology.The authors would like to thank Kat Bagley, Joe Grillo, Ivey Bright, Brooke Bensen, Cathy Michas, Brad Barris, Lori Passmore, David Wilkins, and Dee Conrad for their help with data collection. Additionally, without the assistance and support of the Parkwood Hospital administration and staff, neither this treatment program nor this paper could have been developed.Portions of this paper based on earlier data analyses were presented at the Mississippi Psychological Association Convention, September, 1990. This research was conducted at Parkwood Hospital.     

A note on russell's paradox in locally cartesian closed categories

Working in the fragment of Martin-Löfs extensional type theory [12] which has products (but not sums) of dependent types, we consider two additional assumptions: firstly, that there are (strong) equality types; and secondly, that there is a type which is universal in the sense that terms of that type name all types, up to isomorphism. For such a type theory, we give a version of Russell's paradox showing that each type possesses a closed term and (hence) that all terms of each type are provably equal. We consider the kind of category theoretic structure which corresponds to this kind of type theory and obtain a categorical version of the paradox. A special case of this result is the degeneracy of a locally cartesian closed category with a morphism which is generic in the sense that every other morphism in the category can be obtained from it via pullback.The financial support of the Royal Society in London is gratefully acknowledged.