Reply to William R. Ferrell’s paper “A model for realism of confidence judgments: Implications for underconfidence in sensory discrimination”

Ferrell’s decision-variable partition model and our subjective distance model belong to the same family of Thurstonial models. The subjective distance model is limited to sensory discrimination with the method of constant stimuli and rooted in such notions as discriminal dispersion and sense distance. Ferrell’s model is intended to be wider in scope and to apply to both cognitive and sensory tasks. Both models need supplementary assumptions to predict calibration phenomena. The point of departure for us is the fact that the model predicts under-confidence under “guessing” and the empirical finding that people are about 100% correct when they report “absolutely certain.” Ferrell makes assumptions about cutoffs on the decision variable. The respondent is assumed to adjust or not adjust cutoffs according to “cues to difficulty.” We disagree with Ferrell’s claim that the hard-easy effect is explained by the respondent’s failure to adjust cutoffs sufficiently when there is a change in level of difficulty, and argue that this amounts to little more than a translation of the hard-easy effect into the lingua of Ferrell’s decision-variable partition model. Our argument is that the hard-easy effect is a consequence of the post hoc division of items according to solution probability. In addition, error variance may contribute to regression effects that enlarge the hard-easy effect. Finally, in contrast to Ferrell’s position, we regard inference (cognitive uncertainty) and discrimination (sensory uncertainty) as different psychological processes. An understanding of calibration in these two areas requires separate models.     

Two-step weighted least squares factor analysis of dichotomized variables

A two-step weighted least squares estimator for multiple factor analysis of dichotomized variables is discussed. The estimator is based on the first and second order joint probabilities. Asymptotic standard errors and a model test are obtained by applying the Jackknife procedure.     

A Dyadic IRT Model

Psychometrika - We propose a dyadic Item Response Theory (dIRT) model for measuring interactions of pairs of individuals when the responses to items represent the actions (or behaviors,...     

Comparisons of three different investigative interview techniques with young children

After viewing a film of a mother hitting her son, a film not seen by the college student interviewers, children were misinformed about a detail (via exposure to a misleading question) as well as explicitly coached to disclose 3 false details. The children were then interviewed by interviewers who had previously learned 1 of 3 different interviewing procedures: the Yuille Step-Wise Interview developed by J. C. Yuille, R. Hunter, R. Joffe, & J. Zapamiuk (1993); a doll play interview developed by Action for Child Protection Inc. (1994); or the Modified Structured Interview developed for this study. The Modified Structured Interview yielded more "where" information and was better at detecting if coaching had occurred. However, the interviewers were not very good at discriminating suggested versus coached versus correct witnessed information. The authors found that the deeper one digs for memories, the more one uncovers incorrect versus correct items. They concluded that although the Modified Structured Interview was superior to the techniques currently in use, cautions are necessary.     

The Göteborg discothèque fire, 1998

Findings from a study of 563 adolescents’ reactions following a discotheque fire that killed 63 young people in Göteborg in October 1998 are presented. The group answered a questionnaire seven months following the disaster. The questionnaire included the Impact of Event Scale (IES) and the Birleson Depression Self‐Rating Scale (DSRS). The level of trauma was found to be very high, while depression scores were less elevated. A little under a third of the students scored above a clinical cut‐off point (> 35) on the IES, indicating high posttraumatic stress levels. Girls evidenced more depression and traumatic stress reactions than boys. Levels of reactions increased with more closeness (knowing victims personally) and if the adolescents were of non‐Swedish origin.     

Tracking responses related to self-recognition: a frequency comparison of responses to mirrors, photographs, and videotapes by cotton top tamanins (Saguinus oedipus)

The frequency of responses cotton top tamarins (Saguinus oedipus) emitted indicative of self-recognition to a mirror was compared with the frequencies of responses emitted to digitized photographs of tamarins (Experiment 1) and to videotapes of real-time or prior tamarin action (Experiment 2). Results indicated more attentional responses toward the mirror in both studies, but behavioral indices of self-recognition were not consistently generated by the mirror. The 2 experiments confirmed that real-time self-reflection is a condition that generates heightened attention and rare examples of particular mirror-specific behaviors in tamarins.     

Aquinas and quantifier mistakes

In his “Third Way” Aquinas appears to argue in a way that relies upon shifting quantifiers in a fallacious way. Some have tried to save this and other parts of the “Third Way” by introducing sophisticated logical and metaphysical machinery. Alternatively, Aquinas’ apparently fallacious quantifier shift can be seen to be part of a valid argument if we supply a simple premise which an Aristotelian natural philosopher would surely hold. In this short paper, I consider candidates for this premise, defend a specific premise, and from that discussion draw a moral about quantifier predicate logic. I conclude that Aristotelian natural philosophy is more than an historical backdrop to Aquinas’ arguments.     

Using individual differences to predict job performance: correcting for direct and indirect restriction of range

The present study investigates the relationship between individual differences, indicated by personality (FFM) and general mental ability (GMA), and job performance applying two different methods of correction for range restriction. The results, derived by analyzing meta-analytic correlations, show that the more accurate method of correcting for indirect range restriction increased the operational validity of individual differences in predicting job performance and that this increase primarily was due to general mental ability being a stronger predictor than any of the personality traits. The estimates for single traits can be applied in practice to maximize prediction of job performance. Further, differences in the relative importance of general mental ability in relation to overall personality assessment methods was substantive and the estimates provided enables practitioners to perform a correct utility analysis of their overall selection procedure.     

Evaluation of "the incredible years" in Sweden: the transferability of an American parent-training program to Sweden

Structured parent training has been proven to be effective in reducing disruptive behavior problems (DBP) in children. Most of the programs that are used in Sweden have their origin in North America, and there is an ongoing debate over the transferability to Sweden of manual-based programs developed in other contexts. The goal of the present study was to study effectiveness of the Incredible Years parent-training program (IY), developed in the US, in regular clinical work in Sweden, using a randomized controlled design. Parents of 62 four to eight-year-old children diagnosed with Oppositional Defiant Disorder participated in the study. Parents of 38 children were assigned to parent training (PT) and 24 to a waiting list (WL). The results indicate that the IYS retains the positive effects on children's disruptive behavior problems when translated and transferred to Swedish. There was a statistically significant difference in reduction of DBP in children between the groups in favor of the PT. The improvement in the PT group was sustained at the one-year follow-up. The improvement also, at least to some extent, generalized over time to the school context. There was also a statistically significant difference in mothers' report of pre to post change in parenting alliance between the PT and WL groups. The IYS program was appreciated and well received by the participating mothers.     

Do procedures for verbal reporting of thinking have to be reactive? A meta-analysis and recommendations for best reporting methods

Since its establishment, psychology has struggled to find valid methods for studying thoughts and subjective experiences. Thirty years ago, Ericsson and Simon (1980) proposed that participants can give concurrent verbal expression to their thoughts (think aloud) while completing tasks without changing objectively measurable performance (accuracy). In contrast, directed requests for concurrent verbal reports, such as explanations or directions to describe particular kinds of information, were predicted to change thought processes as a consequence of the need to generate this information, thus altering performance. By comparing performance of concurrent verbal reporting conditions with their matching silent control condition, Ericsson and Simon found several studies demonstrating that directed verbalization was associated with changes in performance. In contrast, the lack of effects of thinking aloud was merely suggested by a handful of experimental studies. In this article, Ericsson and Simon's model is tested by a meta-analysis of 94 studies comparing performance while giving concurrent verbalizations to a matching condition without verbalization. Findings based on nearly 3,500 participants show that the "think-aloud" effect size is indistinguishable from zero (r = -.03) and that this procedure remains nonreactive even after statistically controlling additional factors such as task type (primarily visual or nonvisual). In contrast, procedures that entail describing or explaining thoughts and actions are significantly reactive, leading to higher performance than silent control conditions. All verbal reporting procedures tend to increase times to complete tasks. These results suggest that think-aloud should be distinguished from other methods in future studies. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.