No Evidence of Suicide Increase Following Terrorist Attacks in the United States: An Interrupted Time‐Series Analysis of September 11 and Oklahoma City

There is substantial evidence of detrimental psychological sequelae following disasters, including terrorist attacks. The effect of these events on extreme responses such as suicide, however, is unclear. We tested competing hypotheses about such effects by employing autoregressive integrated moving average techniques to model the impact of September 11 and the Oklahoma City bombing on monthly suicide counts at the local, state, and national level. Unlike prior studies that provided conflicting evidence, rigorous time series techniques revealed no support for an increase or decrease in suicides following these events. We conclude that while terrorist attacks produce subsequent psychological morbidity and may affect self and collective efficacy well beyond their immediate impact, these effects are not strong enough to influence levels of suicide mortality.     

Cognitive Tendencies in Analogical Forecasting1

This article attempts to identify some cognitive tendencies involved in analogical forecasting of the outcomes of medical treatment. Sixty-one medical doctors were involved in two experimental tasks concerned with prediction of the outcomes of a new medical treatment when the result with a first patient was known to be either negative or positive. The same subjects were also tested by the Short Optimism/Pessimism Questionnaire (SO/PQ) to explore relationships between life attitude and the cognitive tendencies observed in the experiment. The following findings were reported: (1) The first step of forecasting was recognized as a Data Evaluation Process (DEP), where the physician decides if the given data are sufficient to forecast the result of the same treatment with a new patient. (2) Two cognitive tendencies were identified: non-data-suggested tendency—drawing a conclusion opposite to the data given; and data-suggested tendency—drawing an optimistic conclusion when forecasting from “positive” data and a pessimistic conclusion when forecasting from “negative” data. The second tendency appeared to be dominant; however, the “positive” data created a stronger atmosphere to draw conclusions on a negative outcome. (3) It was stated that analogical forecasting involves two integrated processes, i.e., concluding and asserting. If the integration process is not complete, the subject is drawing analogical conclusions with a low confidence. (4) An optimistic life attitude appeared to be an important factor in determining analogical forecasting.     

Understanding the central processing limit in consistent-mapping visual search tasks

Effects of load (i.e., the number of stimuli in the display) have been observed in multiple-frame studies using a consistent mapping of stimuli to responses (e.g., Fisher, 1982, 1984). In a series of four experiments, it is shown that these effects are not the consequence of differences across the high- and low-load conditions in either decision noise or peripheral masking. Additionally, it is shown that of two modes of limited capacity (a limited-channel and divided-capacity model) considered as possible explanations of load effects in tasks where subjects are required to locate a target, only one--the limited-channel model--is consistent with the results from all three location tasks. Finally, it is argued that the limited-channel model predicts not only the behavior observed in the four consistent-mapping experiments reported in this article but also the behavior observed in several related consistent-mapping tasks (Kleiss & Lane, 1986; Shiffrin & Gardner, 1972).     

Mass media treatment of violence in sports and its effects

There appears to be a strong relationship between mass media portrayals of violence and real-life violence itself. This article reviews the available literature on the effects of media treatment of sports violence; analyzes the theoretical explanations for this treatment; and makes proposals on how the problems of both sports violence and its media coverage may be remedied, with a particular focus on amateur hockey in Canada.     

The association between teacher attitudes, behavioral intentions, and smoking and the prevalence of smoking among seventh-grade students.

Seventh-grade students and teachers from twenty-three middle and junior high schools were surveyed to determine the association between teacher attitudes, behavioral intentions, and smoking behavior and the prevalence of student smoking. Teacher attitudes toward smoking policies were found to be strongly related to the current smoking behavior of the teacher but not consistently related to student smoking. In addition, teacher likelihood of intervening showed a modest association with teacher smoking status, with current smokers generally indicating being the least likely to intervene for student possession or use of cigarettes. Teacher intentions to intervene were strongly associated with the prevalence of smoking among boys but not girls.