No Evidence of Suicide Increase Following Terrorist Attacks in the United States: An Interrupted Time‐Series Analysis of September 11 and Oklahoma City

There is substantial evidence of detrimental psychological sequelae following disasters, including terrorist attacks. The effect of these events on extreme responses such as suicide, however, is unclear. We tested competing hypotheses about such effects by employing autoregressive integrated moving average techniques to model the impact of September 11 and the Oklahoma City bombing on monthly suicide counts at the local, state, and national level. Unlike prior studies that provided conflicting evidence, rigorous time series techniques revealed no support for an increase or decrease in suicides following these events. We conclude that while terrorist attacks produce subsequent psychological morbidity and may affect self and collective efficacy well beyond their immediate impact, these effects are not strong enough to influence levels of suicide mortality.     

A Projection Caliper for Measuring at a Distance

(Frankl, Viktor E. The Doctor and the Soul. New York: Knopf, 1955. Pp. 280.) Reviewed by Robert M. Allen.     

Cognitive Tendencies in Analogical Forecasting1

This article attempts to identify some cognitive tendencies involved in analogical forecasting of the outcomes of medical treatment. Sixty-one medical doctors were involved in two experimental tasks concerned with prediction of the outcomes of a new medical treatment when the result with a first patient was known to be either negative or positive. The same subjects were also tested by the Short Optimism/Pessimism Questionnaire (SO/PQ) to explore relationships between life attitude and the cognitive tendencies observed in the experiment. The following findings were reported: (1) The first step of forecasting was recognized as a Data Evaluation Process (DEP), where the physician decides if the given data are sufficient to forecast the result of the same treatment with a new patient. (2) Two cognitive tendencies were identified: non-data-suggested tendency—drawing a conclusion opposite to the data given; and data-suggested tendency—drawing an optimistic conclusion when forecasting from “positive” data and a pessimistic conclusion when forecasting from “negative” data. The second tendency appeared to be dominant; however, the “positive” data created a stronger atmosphere to draw conclusions on a negative outcome. (3) It was stated that analogical forecasting involves two integrated processes, i.e., concluding and asserting. If the integration process is not complete, the subject is drawing analogical conclusions with a low confidence. (4) An optimistic life attitude appeared to be an important factor in determining analogical forecasting.     

Bias in the use of base rates: Racial prejudice in decision-making

Two studies investigated biases in the use of base rate information when assessing the probability of a witness' accurate identification of a white or West Indian as a burglar. An adapted version of the Kahneman-Tversky cab problem was used, to provide a social decision in which biases could be measured against some normative standard. Ethnicity of youth (white/West Indian) and nature of base rate (incidental/causal) were manipulated in a 2 × 2 between-subjects design. A significant interaction effect revealed that subjects took no account of the base rate for a West Indian subject, but used the base rate only when it was causal and the youth was white. This ‘prejudice effect’ against a West Indian youth and ‘exoneration effect’ for a white youth were replicated in a second study, using a microcomputer and chronometric analyses. Results are discussed in terms of heuristic decision-making, social schemata, and the cognitive versus motivational bases of bias in the use of base rates.     

The effects of objectives and constraints on motor control strategy in reciprocal aiming movements

The goal of this study was to examine how the kinematics of reciprocal aiming movements were affected by both the objective of the movement and the constraints operating on that movement. In Experiment 1, the objective of the movement was indirectly manipulated by capitalizing on the fact that subjects determine their own accuracy and speed limits, despite uniform task instructions to move as quickly and accurately as possible. A Fitts' type reciprocal aiming paradigm was employed, in which 69 subjects were asked to move a stylus repetitively between two spatially separated targets. Four target widths were orthogonally combined with four movement amplitudes, resulting in 16 conditions. Movements were made on an X-Y digitizing tablet. Based on the mean variable error produced on both targets, subjects were differentiated post hoc into three movement objective groups: speed, accuracy, and speed-plus-accuracy. Kinematic analyses revealed that the programming and execution of movements were systematically influenced by both the movement objective and the movement constraints. That is, movement time, peak velocity, dwell time, acceleration and deceleration time, normalized acceleration and normalized deceleration varied systematically as a function of both the speed-accuracy movement objective and the movement constraints of target size and movement distance. Moreover, the consequences of changing the constraints of the movement were affected by an interaction with the objective of the movement. In Experiment 2, the objective of the movement was directly manipulated by varying speed and/or accuracy instructions to subjects. The basic results of Experiment 1 were substantiated. Overall, the results were consistent with the view that motor control is dependent upon sensory consequences.     

Effects of reinforcement schedules on rats' choice behavior in extinction.

The effects of reinforcement schedules on rats' choice behavior in extinction were studied. In a free-operant chamber equipped with two retractable bars, the experimental animals were trained to press the bars separately for a food reward. One bar delivered the reward on a continuous reinforcement (CRF) schedule, and the other delivered the reward on a partial reinforcement (PRF) schedule. Control animals earned the reward from both bars with the same reinforcement schedule, either a CRF or a PRF. When both bars were simultaneously available during extinction, the experimental animals responded more frequently to the CRF than to the PRF alternative, demonstrating a reversed within-subjects partial reinforcement extinction effect (PREE). A conventional between-subjects PREE was replicated in the control subjects. The results of this study were inconsistent with both Amsel's (1962, 1967) frustration hypothesis and Capaldi's (1966, 1967) sequential hypotheses.