No Evidence of Suicide Increase Following Terrorist Attacks in the United States: An Interrupted Time‐Series Analysis of September 11 and Oklahoma City

There is substantial evidence of detrimental psychological sequelae following disasters, including terrorist attacks. The effect of these events on extreme responses such as suicide, however, is unclear. We tested competing hypotheses about such effects by employing autoregressive integrated moving average techniques to model the impact of September 11 and the Oklahoma City bombing on monthly suicide counts at the local, state, and national level. Unlike prior studies that provided conflicting evidence, rigorous time series techniques revealed no support for an increase or decrease in suicides following these events. We conclude that while terrorist attacks produce subsequent psychological morbidity and may affect self and collective efficacy well beyond their immediate impact, these effects are not strong enough to influence levels of suicide mortality.     

Introduction

Knowledge, Technology &; Policy -     

Cognitive Tendencies in Analogical Forecasting1

This article attempts to identify some cognitive tendencies involved in analogical forecasting of the outcomes of medical treatment. Sixty-one medical doctors were involved in two experimental tasks concerned with prediction of the outcomes of a new medical treatment when the result with a first patient was known to be either negative or positive. The same subjects were also tested by the Short Optimism/Pessimism Questionnaire (SO/PQ) to explore relationships between life attitude and the cognitive tendencies observed in the experiment. The following findings were reported: (1) The first step of forecasting was recognized as a Data Evaluation Process (DEP), where the physician decides if the given data are sufficient to forecast the result of the same treatment with a new patient. (2) Two cognitive tendencies were identified: non-data-suggested tendency—drawing a conclusion opposite to the data given; and data-suggested tendency—drawing an optimistic conclusion when forecasting from “positive” data and a pessimistic conclusion when forecasting from “negative” data. The second tendency appeared to be dominant; however, the “positive” data created a stronger atmosphere to draw conclusions on a negative outcome. (3) It was stated that analogical forecasting involves two integrated processes, i.e., concluding and asserting. If the integration process is not complete, the subject is drawing analogical conclusions with a low confidence. (4) An optimistic life attitude appeared to be an important factor in determining analogical forecasting.     

Referential communication abilities of learning-disabled, language-learning-disabled, and normal school-age children

Past research in referential communication has indicated normally developing children show developmental progression in ability to communicate a specific referent to a listener. In one paradigm subjects were given lists of word-pairs in which one member of each pair was designated as the referent. It was shown that communicating about referents found in word-pairs associated in some way was more difficult than communicating about referents in dissimilar word-pairs. The present study extended this methodology to learning-disabled children. Learning-disabled, language-learning-disabled, and normally achieving children were asked to communicate about 30 pictured referents on three different tasks. On Tasks 1 and 2 each subject was asked to give a clue for the referent that would distinguish it from the other picture. Stimuli for Task 1 were 30 pairs of pictures that were related in some way and the stimuli for Task 2 were 30 pairs of unrelated pictures. Task 3 required the subjects to evaluate the adequacy of the examiner's clues for Task 1 stimuli. The disabled subjects were matched to the normally achieving subjects on the basis of receptive vocabulary age. Few differences were noted among the groups' performances on these referential communication tasks. Implications include the importance of vocabulary and concept development to referential communication.