No Evidence of Suicide Increase Following Terrorist Attacks in the United States: An Interrupted Time‐Series Analysis of September 11 and Oklahoma City

There is substantial evidence of detrimental psychological sequelae following disasters, including terrorist attacks. The effect of these events on extreme responses such as suicide, however, is unclear. We tested competing hypotheses about such effects by employing autoregressive integrated moving average techniques to model the impact of September 11 and the Oklahoma City bombing on monthly suicide counts at the local, state, and national level. Unlike prior studies that provided conflicting evidence, rigorous time series techniques revealed no support for an increase or decrease in suicides following these events. We conclude that while terrorist attacks produce subsequent psychological morbidity and may affect self and collective efficacy well beyond their immediate impact, these effects are not strong enough to influence levels of suicide mortality.     

Cognitive Tendencies in Analogical Forecasting1

This article attempts to identify some cognitive tendencies involved in analogical forecasting of the outcomes of medical treatment. Sixty-one medical doctors were involved in two experimental tasks concerned with prediction of the outcomes of a new medical treatment when the result with a first patient was known to be either negative or positive. The same subjects were also tested by the Short Optimism/Pessimism Questionnaire (SO/PQ) to explore relationships between life attitude and the cognitive tendencies observed in the experiment. The following findings were reported: (1) The first step of forecasting was recognized as a Data Evaluation Process (DEP), where the physician decides if the given data are sufficient to forecast the result of the same treatment with a new patient. (2) Two cognitive tendencies were identified: non-data-suggested tendency—drawing a conclusion opposite to the data given; and data-suggested tendency—drawing an optimistic conclusion when forecasting from “positive” data and a pessimistic conclusion when forecasting from “negative” data. The second tendency appeared to be dominant; however, the “positive” data created a stronger atmosphere to draw conclusions on a negative outcome. (3) It was stated that analogical forecasting involves two integrated processes, i.e., concluding and asserting. If the integration process is not complete, the subject is drawing analogical conclusions with a low confidence. (4) An optimistic life attitude appeared to be an important factor in determining analogical forecasting.     

The effects of objectives and constraints on motor control strategy in reciprocal aiming movements

The goal of this study was to examine how the kinematics of reciprocal aiming movements were affected by both the objective of the movement and the constraints operating on that movement. In Experiment 1, the objective of the movement was indirectly manipulated by capitalizing on the fact that subjects determine their own accuracy and speed limits, despite uniform task instructions to move as quickly and accurately as possible. A Fitts' type reciprocal aiming paradigm was employed, in which 69 subjects were asked to move a stylus repetitively between two spatially separated targets. Four target widths were orthogonally combined with four movement amplitudes, resulting in 16 conditions. Movements were made on an X-Y digitizing tablet. Based on the mean variable error produced on both targets, subjects were differentiated post hoc into three movement objective groups: speed, accuracy, and speed-plus-accuracy. Kinematic analyses revealed that the programming and execution of movements were systematically influenced by both the movement objective and the movement constraints. That is, movement time, peak velocity, dwell time, acceleration and deceleration time, normalized acceleration and normalized deceleration varied systematically as a function of both the speed-accuracy movement objective and the movement constraints of target size and movement distance. Moreover, the consequences of changing the constraints of the movement were affected by an interaction with the objective of the movement. In Experiment 2, the objective of the movement was directly manipulated by varying speed and/or accuracy instructions to subjects. The basic results of Experiment 1 were substantiated. Overall, the results were consistent with the view that motor control is dependent upon sensory consequences.     

Categorical and algebraic aspects of Martin-Löf Type Theory

In the paper there are introduced and discussed the concepts of an indexed category with quantifications and a higher level indexed category to present an algebraic characterization of some version of Martin-Löf Type Theory. This characterization is given by specifying an additional equational structure of those indexed categories which are models of Martin-Löf Type Theory. One can consider the presented characterization as an essentially algebraic theory of categorical models of Martin-Löf Type Theory. The paper contains a construction of an indexed category with quantifications from terms and types of the language of Martin-Löf Type Theory given in the manner of Troelstra [11]. The paper contains also an inductive definition of a valuation of these terms and types in an indexed category with quantifications.     

Attention and the order of items in short-term visual memory

Summary Subjects first detected a target presented at the left of fixation, and then attempted to report, in order, the first four items (numerals or shapes) in a stream of items presented to the right of fixation. At comparably difficult presentation rates, 10/s for numerals and 5/s for shapes, reports showed a mixture of correctly ordered items with items reported in a direction opposite to their order of presentation. Reports fit a three-parameter attention-gating model (AGM), which assumes that (1) after target detection, an attention gate opens briefly to allow items to enter visual short-term memory (VSTM), and (2) report order is determined by the attention each item receives in VSTM. Items presented either early or late in the stream tend to receive less attention and are thus reported as later than more central items. The fit to the AGM for both numerals and unlabelled shapes provides evidence that reports reflect order in short-term visual (rather than verbal) memory.This research was supported by USAF grant no. 84-ML-044     

Taking stock of the longitudinal study of romantic couple relationships: The last 20 years

Longitudinal dyadic research provides significant benefits for our understanding of romantic couple relationships. In this systematic review, we begin by providing a broad overview of topical trends and approaches in longitudinal couple relationships research from 2002 through 2021. Then, we narrow our review to dyadic relationship quality articles, highlighting key themes as well as noting important gaps in the research. Using an intersectional perspective that acknowledges multiple ways that disadvantage, power, and oppression may be seen in both research and in couples' lived experience, we note prominent paradigms used in examining couple relationships, what types of questions have been most valued, and what groups and approaches are underrepresented in the literature. Most longitudinal couple relationships research is quantitative, relies on self-report approaches from American couples in the early-to-middle years of their relationships, concentrates more on negative aspects of relationships than positives, and takes a communication-satisfaction paradigm in studying couples. We see a clear need to increase the use of methodologies beyond self-report measures, conduct more studies with within-group minority, older adult, culturally-diverse, and context-specific samples to explore the diversity of relationships, and fully consider both strengths and positive processes in relationships as well as the challenges couples experience.     

Development of Standard Anchors for Scoring Generic Past-Behaviour Questions in Structured Interviews

A structured interviewing system was developed which included an item bank of pre-written past-behaviour questions. Scoring anchors for each of 168 questions in the item bank were created from analysis of protocols from individual assessments. A concurrent validation study was conducted, focusing on the job of highway patrol sergeant. Job knowledge experts used a job analysis tool to select a subset of twelve questions from the item bank. Panel interviews were conducted with 32 highway patrol sergeants as subjects. Average inter-rater reliability was 0.65 and interview validity was 0.42 for group consensus scores and 0.44 for panel average scores. Discussion focused on practical issues affecting the interviewing system.     

An MMPI-based empirical model of malingering and deception

The empirically-based model of malingering and deception described by Rogers (1984b) was operationalized using MMPI and clinical interview data. Subjects (N = 159) were patients committed to an inpatient forensic hospital as ‘Incompetent to Stand Trial’ or ‘Not Guilty by Reason of Insanity’. Inter-rater reliability was acceptable for the 11 criteria used to define response styles. Each subject was categorized into one of five response style groups: ‘Reliable’, ‘Malingering’, ‘Defensive’, ‘Irrelevant’, or ‘Unclassifiable’. Factor analysis of the rating criteria yielded four factors, three of which are comparable to the assigned groups, providing some validation for the constructs underlying these groups.