Addressing the “Replication Crisis”: Using Original Studies to Design Replication Studies with Appropriate Statistical Power

Psychology is undergoing a replication crisis. The discussion surrounding this crisis has centered on mistrust of previous findings. Researchers planning replication studies often use the original study sample effect size as the basis for sample size planning. However, this strategy ignores uncertainty and publication bias in estimated effect sizes, resulting in overly optimistic calculations. A psychologist who intends to obtain power of .80 in the replication study, and performs calculations accordingly, may have an actual power lower than .80. We performed simulations to reveal the magnitude of the difference between actual and intended power based on common sample size planning strategies and assessed the performance of methods that aim to correct for effect size uncertainty and/or bias. Our results imply that even if original studies reflect actual phenomena and were conducted in the absence of questionable research practices, popular approaches to designing replication studies may result in a low success rate, especially if the original study is underpowered. Methods correcting for bias and/or uncertainty generally had higher actual power, but were not a panacea for an underpowered original study. Thus, it becomes imperative that 1) original studies are adequately powered and 2) replication studies are designed with methods that are more likely to yield the intended level of power.     

Experimental Power for Indirect Effects in Group-randomized Studies with Group-level Mediators

Mediation analyses have provided a critical platform to assess the validity of theories of action across a wide range of disciplines. Despite widespread interest and development in these analyses, literature guiding the design of mediation studies has been largely unavailable. Like studies focused on the detection of a total or main effect, an important design consideration is the statistical power to detect indirect effects if they exist. Understanding the sensitivity to detect indirect effects is exceptionally important because it directly influences the scale of data collection and ultimately governs the types of evidence group-randomized studies can bring to bear on theories of action. However, unlike studies concerned with the detection of total effects, literature has not established power formulas for detecting multilevel indirect effects in group-randomized designs. In this study, we develop closed-form expressions to estimate the variance of and the power to detect indirect effects in group-randomized studies with a group-level mediator using two-level linear models (i.e., 2-2-1 mediation). The results suggest that when carefully planned, group-randomized designs may frequently be well positioned to detect mediation effects with typical sample sizes. The resulting power formulas are implemented in the R package PowerUpR and the PowerUp!-Mediator software (causalevaluation.org).     

权力感对个体的影响:调节定向的视角

采用4个研究探究了权力感对调节定向的影响。研究1通过测量被试的特质性权力感和特质性调节定向初步探索权力感水平与调节定向的关系。研究2和研究3分别通过外显角色扮演和故事回忆法来探究状态性权力感对调节定向目标表征和策略选择的影响。研究4采用身体姿势法启动权力感,进一步探究在内隐层面权力感对调节定向的影响。结果发现,高权力感个体更倾向于促进定向;而低权力感个体更倾向于预防定向,并且排除了其中可能的无关变量(情绪)的影响。本研究有助于更好地理解和整合现有的权力感研究结果,并能预测更多未知的权力感效应。     

“Local determination”, even if we could find it,does not challenge free will: Commentary on Marcelo Fischborn

Marcelo Fischborn discusses the significance of neuroscience for debates about free will. Although he concedes that, to date, Libet-style experiments have failed to threaten “libertarian free will” (free will that requires indeterminism), he argues that, in principle, neuroscience and psychology could do so by supporting local determinism. We argue that, in principle, Libet-style experiments cannot succeed in disproving or even establishing serious doubt about libertarian free will. First, we contend that “local determination”, as Fischborn outlines it, is not a coherent concept. Moreover, determinism is unlikely to be established by neuroscience in any form that should trouble compatibilists or libertarians—that is, anyone who thinks we might have free will. We conclude that, in principle, neuroscience will not be able undermine libertarian free will and explain why these conclusions support a coherent compatibilist notion of causal sourcehood.     

Weakness of will and motivational internalism

The unconditional version of motivational internalism says that if an agent sincerely judges that to φ in circumstances C is the best option available to her, then, as a matter of conceptual necessity, she will be motivated to φ in C. This position faces a powerful counterargument according to which it is possible for various cases of practical irrationality to completely defeat an agent’s moral motivation while, at the same time, leaving her appreciation of her moral reasons intact. In this paper, I will argue that weakness of will, as the paradigmatic case of practical irrationality, and all other cases of practical irrationality that feature in standard formulations of this argument do not represent genuine counterexamples to this version of motivational internalism. In this sense, the main aim of this paper is to show that proponents of this internalist position are well justified in their denial of the claim that there are people who are completely unmotivated by their judgments about what is the best option available to them.     

Pre-existence and universal salvation – the Origenian renaissance in early modern Cambridge

ABSTRACT

The Letter of Resolution Concerning Origen and the Chief of His Opinions, published anonymously in London in 1661, is the chief testimony of the renaissance of Origen in early modern Cambridge. Probably authored by George Rust, the later Bishop of Dromore in Ireland, it is the first defence of Origenism, and delineates a rational theology based upon the unshakable foundation of God’s first attribute, his goodness. Trespassing and falling away from God’s goodness, the souls forfeit their original ethereal bodies or ‘vehicles’ and come to inhabit lesser ones made of air and earth. Making responsible use of their freedom, however, they may climb up the ontological ladder again. Rust’s rational theodicy with its stress on God’s universal goodness and the pre-existent soul’s free will is a key document of the Cambridge Platonists’ deeply Origenian philosophy of religion.     

权力感对风险决策框架效应的影响

框架效应是指由于对事物描述方式的改变而引起决策者偏好反转的现象。以权力的接近-抑制理论以及模糊痕迹理论为基础,研究探索了权力感对风险决策框架效应的影响及其发生机制。实验一通过回忆法对170名学生被试进行权力操纵,综合运用四种类型的决策情境,研究考察了权力感与框架效应的关系。结果发现,高权力组被试的框架效应显著,低权力组被试者的框架效应不显著。实验二探讨权力感与框架效应的内在机制。结果发现,信息加工深度中介权力感与框架效应之间的关系     

REDUCTIONISM AND HOLISM,CHANCE AND SELECTION,MECHANISM AND MIND

Abstract. Despite its rich and deepening panoply of empirical support, evolutionary theory continues to generate widespread concern. Some of this concern can be attributed to misunderstandings of the original concept, some to unfamiliarity with its current trajectories, and some to strongly held fears that it strips the human of cherished attributes. In this essay I seek to deconstruct such misunderstandings, lift up current concepts of what evolution entails, and address some of the existential issues it generates.     

Maintaining Men's Dominance: Negotiating Identity and Power When She Earns More

This article examines the power dynamics in marriages where wives earn substantially more than their husbands based on in-depth interviews with husbands and wives in 30 couples. The results demonstrate how normative gender expectations constrain interactions between spouses and how spouses in these unconventional marriages struggle to construct appropriate gender identities that are more or less consistent with the conventional expectations that men should be breadwinners and women should be homemakers. These data represent an important counterpoint to the growing body of quantitative work that demonstrates that a woman's power diminishes as her income exceeds her husband's by illuminating how men's power is preserved within marriage, even in the absence of their traditional economic dominance.     

公共物品困境中自我权力和他人权力对初中生合作行为的影响

本研究分别操纵被试稳定的权力（实验1）和不稳定的权力（实验2）,并与不同权力个体进行公共物品困境任务,以考察了自我权力和他人权力对初中生合作行为的交互作用及其权力稳定性在其中的作用。结果发现,在权力稳定情境下,高权力的初中生合作水平低于低权力组和控制组,而在权力不稳定的情境下,高权力的初中生合作水平高于低权力组。无论权力稳定与否,与低权力同伴合作时,低权力者的合作水平均显著高于与高权力同伴合作时。