THE epistemologies of parsimony: A review of Ockham's razors: A user's manual by Elliott Sober

Sober analyzes two paradigms of parsimony that have been used successfully in science. These are associated with two interpretations of probability: Bayesian and frequentist. Sober applies these paradigms to problems in biology, psychology, and philosophy. In the chapter on psychology, he argues that objective data consisting of environmental input and two or more concurrent responses could be used to refute empirically the radical behaviorist thesis that probability of learned responses can be accounted for solely on the basis of environmental variables. Sober believes that such data are readily available and offers a thought experiment to illustrate his point. Behavior analysts, however, would want actual experimental data, undoubtedly with animals, before accepting any such refutation. Nonetheless, Sober's philosophical point about the type of experiment that would be capable of refuting this thesis is valid. The behavior analytic program, however, does not depend upon the truth of this thesis.     

Effects of gait speed on the body’s center of mass motion relative to the center of pressure during over-ground walking

Preferred walking speed (PWS) reflects the integrated performance of the relevant physiological sub-systems, including energy expenditure. It remains unclear whether the PWS during over-ground walking is chosen to optimize one’s balance control because studies on the effects of speed on the body’s balance control have been limited. The current study aimed to bridge the gap by quantifying the effects of the walking speed on the body’s center of mass (COM) motion relative to the center of pressure (COP) in terms of the changes and directness of the COM-COP inclination angle (IA) and its rate of change (RCIA). Data of the COM and COP were measured from fifteen young healthy males at three walking speeds including PWS using a motion capture system. The values of IAs and RCIAs at key gait events and their average values over gait phases were compared between speeds using one-way repeated measures ANOVA. With increasing walking speed, most of the IA and RCIA related variables were significantly increased (p < 0.05) but not for those of the frontal IA. Significant quadratic trends (p < 0.05) with highest directness at PWS were found in IA during single-limb support, and in RCIA during single-limb and double-limb support. The results suggest that walking at PWS corresponded to the COM-COP control maximizing the directness of the RCIAs over the gait cycle, a compromise between the effects of walking speed and the speed of weight transfer. The data of IA and RCIA at PWS may be used in future assessment of balance control ability in people with different levels of balance impairments.     

语音意识、命名速度和语素意识在汉语阅读发展中的作用

以123名小学四、五年级汉语儿童为研究对象,采用回归分析、结构方程模型探讨语音意识、命名速度和语素意识在阅读能力不同方面（准确性、流畅性和理解）的作用。结果显示,语音意识、命名速度和语素意识都是影响阅读能力的重要认知因素,但对不同方面阅读能力的作用存在差异：（1）语音意识、命名速度和语素意识均直接影响阅读准确性,且语素意识的贡献相对较大;（2）命名速度除直接影响阅读流畅性外,还通过阅读准确性的部分中介作用影响阅读流畅性,而语音意识和语素意识则通过阅读准确性的完全中介作用影响阅读流畅性;（3）语音意识、命名速度和语素意识对阅读理解均无直接影响,分别通过阅读准确性和阅读流畅性间接影响阅读理解。     

初中生英语学业成绩影响因素的因果模型

采用英语自我效能、英语学习焦虑、英语学习策略问卷,测量研究213名初中生英语自我效能、英语学习焦虑、英语学习策略与英语学业成绩之因果关系模型。结果表明：（1）初中女生英语学习焦虑显著低于男生;（2）初中生性别、自我效能、活用策略对英语学业成绩有显著回归效应,自我效能是性别影响英语学业成绩的中介变量;（3）初中生英语自我效能与学习策略构成因果-反馈关系且对英语学业成绩有显著回归效应;（4）初中生英语自我效能是英语学习焦虑对英语学业成绩产生消极效应的中介变量．并与英语学习焦虑构成因果-反馈关系;（5）初中生英语学习策略与英语自我效能共同对英语学习焦虑构成多级链式因果-反馈关系。     

Processing speed, intelligence, creativity, and school performance: Testing of causal hypotheses using structural equation models

According to mental speed theory of intelligence, the speed of information processing constitutes an important basis for cognitive abilities. However, the question, how mental speed relates to real world criteria, like school, academic, or job performance, is still unanswered. The aim of the study is to test an indirect speed-factor model in comparison to rivaling models explaining the relationships between different mental abilities and performance. In this speed-factor model, basic cognitive processing is assumed to influence higher mental abilities (IQ and creativity). Intelligence and creativity themselves should be valid predictors of school performance. We computed bivariate correlations and structural equation models to test this hypothesis, using indicators of processing speed [Zahlen-Verbindungs-Test (ZVT) and Coding Test], psychometric intelligence [Kognitiver Fähigkeits-Test (KFT) and Raven's Advanced Progressive Matrices (APM)], creativity [Verbaler Kreativitäts-Test (VKT) and Verwendungs-Test (VWT)] and school performance (grades). In a sample of 271 students from German gymnasiums (Class Levels 9 to 11) the speed-factor model can reproduce at best the empirical relationships between processing speed, intelligence, creativity, and school performance: It assumes that processing speed influences higher mental abilities (intelligence and creativity), which, in the sequel, influence school performance. Therefore, processing speed seems to have no direct effect on school performance; the effect is indirect as it operates via mediation through higher cognitive abilities.     

考试自我效能感是考试焦虑影响考试成绩的中介变量

本文采用结构方程的统计分析技术．依据Baron(1986)提出的确定中介变量的规则和标准．对265名中学生的特质考试焦虑、考试自我效能感、数学期末考试成绩的关系进行了探讨。考试焦虑,考试自我效能感和数学考试成绩是三个潜变量。结果表明,考试焦虑通过考试自我效能感这一中介变量对考试成绩产生影响,考试自我效能感对考试成绩有直接的影响作用,是考试焦虑影响考试成绩的中介变量。     

社会支持的调节作用研究

为了考察社会支持在人格特征和心理健康水平之间的调节作用,利用症状自评量表、社会支持评定量表和艾森克人格问卷简式量表对1102名大学生进行施测。层级回归分析的结果不仅支持了社会支持的调节作用,而且表明社会支持与个体的心理健康水平之间存在三种不同的关系形式,即(1)社会支持的主效应显著,但是调节效应不显著;(2)社会支持的主效应和调节效应同时显著;(3)社会支持的主效应不显著,但是调节效应显著。     

智力与信息加工速度研究中的检测时范式

检测时是信息加工速度的重要指标,也是智力与信息加工速度关系的研究领域内一种重要的实验范式。文章在简要介绍反应时范式的基础上,着重介绍了检测时范式的实验任务、基本原理以及检测时与智商之间的关系。同时,通过与反应时范式的比较,讨论了检测时范式在智力与信息加工速度研究中的优点和局限性,以及其在解决相关研究领域问题上的方法学意义。     

考试焦虑影响考试成绩的基本模式

以整合的思路、建构包括九个中介变量的考试焦虑影响考试成绩的结构方程模型。用AM和MG两种路径分析方式相结合的方法．发现考试焦虑对中介变量的影响甚于中介变量对考试成绩的影响。考试自我效能感、成绩-接近目标、认知干扰是受考试焦虑影响和影响考试成绩程度比较一致的中介变量(简称为“一致性”的中介变量),成绩-回避目标定向、担忧、学习和考试技能变量屑于“非一致性”的中介变量。掌握目标定向、情绪性和应付反应作为中介变量不具有实际意义。     

加工速度、工作记忆与液态智力发展的关系

有关儿童液态智力 (fluid intelligence) 发展的年龄特征早已有了较明确的一致性结论。然而,儿童液态智力发展的机制问题到现在仍知之甚少。早期零星的研究观察到,随着儿童年龄的增长,其信息加工速度变快,工作记忆能力和液态智力亦提高。由此可推测,对儿童液态智力与加工速度、工作记忆能力关系的考察有助于阐明儿童液态智力发展的机制问题。 近10多年已有不少研究分别探讨了液态智力与加工速度、液态智力与工作记忆的关系,并已开始同时探讨液态智力与加工速度和工作记忆的关系。但令人惊讶的是,有关儿童液态智力发展与加工速度、工作记忆关系问题的综合探讨几成空白,到目前为止,仅有极少量的研究 (Fry 和Hale, 1996; Miller和Vernon, 1996) 探讨了这一问题,其中Fry 和Hale (1996) 还提出了一个模型 (the developmental cascade model) 试图解释儿童液态智力发展的机制,随后Fry 和Hale (2000)进一步阐明并坚持了这一观点。Fry 和Hale的观点是,儿童液态智力的发展取决于儿童工作记忆能力的发展,而工作记忆能力的发展又进一步取决于儿童信息加工速度能力的发展。这就是说,加工速度和工作记忆是儿童液态智力发展的两个关键因素,其中加工速度又是第一作用因素。Fry 和Hale (1996, 2000) 提出了她们的观点后,后续研究在国际上仍十分少见。但来自于发展领域之外的研究似乎不支持Fry 和Hale (1996, 2000)的观点。研究发现(Conway et al., 2002),仅工作记忆能很好预测液态智力的变化,而加工速度不能很好预测液态智力的变化。 该研究从南京市中小学随机选取了243名10到18岁的健康儿童（男生127名,女生116名）。所有被试共完成7项任务,包括2项液态智力任务测试（瑞文标准推理测验和卡特尔文化公平智力测验,以原始分作为数据分析指标）、3项加工速度任务测试（数字抄写、字母串比较和符号串比较）、2项工作记忆任务（数字工作记忆和视空间工作记忆）。验证性因素分析发现这7项任务所测量的正是液态智力、加工速度和工作记忆这3个因子,且这3个因子间存在显著的相关。但随后的结构方程模型分析表明,从工作记忆到液态智力间存在显著路径,但从加工速度到液态智力并不存在显著路径,工作记忆几乎可完全解释儿童液态智力的发展变化（85.4%）,且可以解释81.6%的加工速度的发展变化量。仅当不考虑工作记忆这一因素时,加工速度才能解释50%的液态智力的发展变化。这表明,工作记忆是儿童液态智力发展的基础,而加工速度则不是。这一结果在以三个变量的平均标准分数为基础所进行的层级回归分析 (hierarchical regression analyses)中亦得到了证实。 总体上,该研究并不支持Fry 和Hale (1996, 2000)的观点。工作记忆是儿童液态智力发展的关键因素,而加工速度则不是。加工速度与液态智力存在显著相关,其原因可能在于,加工速度反映的是儿童液态智力的同一年龄内个体差异而不是年龄间差异（即发展性变化）。本研究同时对工作记忆之所以是儿童液态智力发展的基础的可能原因进行了讨论。