跨期选择的变易程度正向预测中华文化圈国民的自评扛疫成效：亚非欧美大洋洲18国跨国研究

跨期选择是对不同时间点的得失的权衡与选择。伊索寓言《蚂蚁和蚱蜢》假借群居型昆虫的跨期选择偏爱暗喻投资未来的慢策略比只顾眼前的快策略更利于生存。用跨期选择领域通用的语言解读这一寓言便是：选择大而迟选项的蚂蚁比选择小而早选项的蚱蜢更可能扛过严冬而生存下来。为了探索何种跨期选择策略更有助于我们扛过疫情,本研究调查了亚非欧美大洋洲这5大洲18个国家共计26355名受测者对混合得失双结果的跨期选择偏爱,测量了人们平时和疫时跨期选择偏爱的变易程度(2类变易的程度指标),以及人们自评的扛疫成效。跨文化比较结果的主要发现是：不同通货的选择变易程度(指标1)和不同时期的选择变易程度(指标2)能联合预测中国/新加坡文化圈国民的自评扛疫成效;不同时期的选择变易程度(指标2)也可以单独预测印度/马来西亚/菲律宾/尼日利亚文化圈国民的自评扛疫成效;这2类选择偏爱变易的程度指标不能预测其他文化圈国民的自评扛疫成效(或者预测方向和假设相反)。基于易经“穷则变,变则通”的要旨和跨国比较的发现,我们认为：面临历史危机时善于变通的特长抑或成就了中华民族特有的竞争优势;在应对危机时,与中国文化距离越相近的国家或民族抑或也能...     

Stolen elections: How conspiracy beliefs during the 2020 American presidential elections changed over time

Conspiracy beliefs have been studied mostly through cross-sectional designs. We conducted a five-wave longitudinal study (N = 376; two waves before and three waves after the 2020 American presidential elections) to examine if the election results influenced specific conspiracy beliefs and conspiracy mentality, and whether effects differ between election winners (i.e., Biden voters) versus losers (i.e., Trump voters) at the individual level. Results revealed that conspiracy mentality kept unchanged over 2 months, providing first evidence that this indeed is a relatively stable trait. Specific conspiracy beliefs (outgroup and ingroup conspiracy beliefs) did change over time, however. In terms of group-level change, outgroup conspiracy beliefs decreased over time for Biden voters but increased for Trump voters. Ingroup conspiracy beliefs decreased over time across all voters, although those of Trump voters decreased faster. These findings illuminate how specific conspiracy beliefs are, and conspiracy mentality is not, influenced by an election event.     

BEHAVIORAL CUSPS: A DEVELOPMENTAL AND PRAGMATIC CONCEPT FOR BEHAVIOR ANALYSIS

Most concepts of development explain certain behavior changes as products or markers of the invariable succession of emerging periods, stages, refinements, or achievements that define and order much of an individual's life. A different but comparable concept can be derived from the most basic mechanisms of behavior analysis, which are its environmental contingencies, and from its most basic strategy, which is to study behavior as its subject matter. From a behavior-analytic perspective, the most fundamental developmental questions are (a) whether these contingencies vary in any systematic way across the life span, and thus make behavior change in a correspondingly systematic way; and (b) whether some of these contingencies and their changes have more far-reaching consequences than others, in terms of the importance to the organism and others, of the behavior classes they change. Certain behavior changes open the door to especially broad or especially important further behavior change, leading to the concept of the behavioral cusp. A behavioral cusp, then, is any behavior change that brings the organism's behavior into contact with new contingencies that have even more far-reaching consequences. Of all the environmental contingencies that change or maintain behavior, those that accomplish cusps are developmental. Behavior change remains the fundamental phenomenon of development for a behavior-analytic view; a cusp is a special instance of behavior change, a change crucial to what can come next.     

B.F. SKINNER AND THE GRAND INQUISITOR

Abstract. B.F. Skinner allures us with the possibilities of turning the stones of materialistic rewards into the bread of human values. He tempts us by assuring success in achieving our goals through behavioral science, if only we give up our autonomy. He offers the power of complete control over our behaviors, on condition that we relinquish responsibility for our lives to a technological elite. Is B. F. Skinner a flesh-and-blood Grand Inquisitor? This essay tries to persuade the reader that Skinner's offers are worth considering.     

Resistance to reinforcement change in multiple and concurrent schedules assessed in transition and at steady state

Behavioral momentum theory relates resistance to change of responding in a multiple-schedule component to the total reinforcement obtained in that component, regardless of how the reinforcers are produced. Four pigeons responded in a series of multiple-schedule conditions in which a variable-interval 40-s schedule arranged reinforcers for pecking in one component and a variable-interval 360-s schedule arranged them in the other. In addition, responses on a second key were reinforced according to variable-interval schedules that were equal in the two components. In different parts of the experiment, responding was disrupted by changing the rate of reinforcement on the second key or by delivering response-independent food during a blackout separating the two components. Consistent with momentum theory, responding on the first key in Part 1 changed more in the component with the lower reinforcement total when it was disrupted by changes in the rate of reinforcement on the second key. However, responding on the second key changed more in the component with the higher reinforcement total. In Parts 2 and 3, responding was disrupted with free food presented during intercomponent blackouts, with extinction (Part 2) or variable-interval 80-s reinforcement (Part 3) arranged on the second key. Here, resistance to change was greater for the component with greater overall reinforcement. Failures of momentum theory to predict short-term differences in resistance to change occurred with disruptors that caused greater change between steady states for the richer component. Consistency of effects across disruptors may yet be found if short-term effects of disruptors are assessed relative to the extent of change observed after prolonged exposure.     

Some neglected problems in IRT

The paper addresses three neglected questions from IRT. In section 1, the properties of the “measurement” of ability or trait parameters and item difficulty parameters in the Rasch model are discussed. It is shown that the solution to this problem is rather complex and depends both on general assumptions about properties of the item response functions and on assumptions about the available item universe. Section 2 deals with the measurement of individual change or “modifiability” based on a Rasch test. A conditional likelihood approach is presented that yields (a) an ML estimator of modifiability for given item parameters, (b) allows one to test hypotheses about change by means of a Clopper-Pearson confidence interval for the modifiability parameter, or (c) to estimate modifiability jointly with the item parameters. Uniqueness results for all three methods are also presented. In section 3, the Mantel-Haenszel method for detecting DIF is discussed under a novel perspective: What is the most general framework within which the Mantel-Haenszel method correctly detects DIF of a studied item? The answer is that this is a 2PL model where, however, all discrimination parameters are known and the studied item has the same discrimination in both populations. Since these requirements would hardly be satisfied in practical applications, the case of constant discrimination parameters, that is, the Rasch model, is the only realistic framework. A simple Pearsonx ² test for DIF of one studied item is proposed as an alternative to the Mantel-Haenszel test; moreover, this test is generalized to the case of two items simultaneously studied for DIF.     

Why are there no objective values?

Using the mathematical frameworks of economic preference ranking, subjective probability, and rational learning through empirical evidence, the epistemological implications of teleological ethical intuitionism are pointed out to the extent to which the latter is based on cognitivist and objectivist concepts of value. The notions of objective value and objective norm are critically analysed with reference to epistemological criteria of intersubjectively shared valuative experience. It is concluded that one cannot meaningfully postulate general material theories of morality that could be tested, confirmed or refuted by intersubjective empirical evidence of preferences and values, however loosely the empirical evidence of values may be interpreted. This situation is explained with reference to the ways in which preceived values become systematically influenced by the concomitants of individual valuative experience, but which have nothing to do with contingent subjective interests.     

Socialization for the democratic personality in modern society

A comprehensive analysis of socialization requires a complex model that both explicates and synthesizes the various subprocesses involved in this phenomenon. Traditional concerns with socialization that have focused almost exclusively on its objective functions, that is, on those which serve society and its institutions, need to be complemented by an equal emphasis on subjective functions in terms of the sociological and psychological development of the individual. Chiefly relevant in this latter respect is the production of basic human needs and the consequences that result from their inadequate gratification in unauthentic and/or unresponsive societies. One such outcome that is particularly crucial to both personal and societal function is that of alienation, which can be assessed specifically in terms of its significance for civic participation. Our model recognizes the limits of both human systems and social systems; and, in terms of the principles of authenticity and responsivity, it articulates the linkage among these systems constituting the essence of socialization. Our model also provides an implicit clarification of the nature and meaning of citizenship in a democracy, which by definition should be a responsive society, and delineates the required sociopsychological images for maximizing the role of political participation.     

An historical preface to engineering ethics

This article attempts to distinguish between science and technology, on the one hand, and engineering, on the other, offering a brief introduction to engineering values and engineering ethics. The method is (roughly) a philosophical examination of history. Engineering turns out to be a relatively recent enterprise, barely three hundred years old, to have distinctive commitments both technical and moral, and to have changed a good deal both technically and morally during that period. What motivates the paper is the belief that a too-easy equation of engineering with technology tends to obscure the special contribution of engineers to technology and to their own professional standards and so, to obscure as well both the origin and content of engineering ethics.     

内隐记忆研究的实验方法探索：启动效应计量方法的改进思路及其实验研究

以实验鉴定了常规的启动效应计量方法的有效性程度,并为客观地计量启动效应,创用了“超意识广度法”、“二次比较法”等．结果发现：（１）如被试数量较少,以不同补笔率为“基线值”所求得的启动效应之间发生显著差异的可能性存在;（２）超意识广度法能克服“阈下呈现刺激法”“分散注意法”的不足,为内隐记忆提供有利的识记情境;（３）“二次比较法”能为正常人内隐记忆的存在提供更为直接、可靠的证据,并能客观、精确地计量启动效应。