Simplified approaches for multicriteria decision making under uncertainty

The problem of uncertainty in the outcome of decisions has tended to be glossed over by many MCDM methods, with the exception of multiattribute utility theory (MAUT). MAUT does, however, require quite complicated preference elicitations and knowledge of the full multivariate distribution of outcomes. Results from a series of simulation studies indicate that the preference orderings of MAUT are only minimally changed when using a simple additive aggregation of marginal utilities, especially in relation to the natural imprecisions inherent in preference elicitation. It is shown in the simulations that by far the most critical aspect of multicriteria decision analysis under uncertainty is not the form of aggregation, but the correct elicitation of marginal utilities which properly represent decision maker preferences over gambles. We relate the results obtained here to other results on the approximation of distributions by three- or five-point discrete distributions, and suggest that the use of deterministic MCDM methods of any form (not necessarily value function techniques), applied to an extended formulation in which each criterion measure is repeated for three or five ‘scenarios’, can be justified.     

Confident,valued and supported: Examining the benefits of employment support for military spouses

ABSTRACT

Military spouses face numerous challenges in obtaining employment as a result of their connection to the military. Previous research has linked military spouses underemployment to reduced well-being and satisfaction with military life, which in turn impacts on retention of the service person. In response to this the UK Ministry of Defence (MOD) trialed a 2 year programme of employment support for spouses in 2015. This paper reports the findings of a qualitative evaluation of this programme and its impact on spouses. Interviews were carried out with 30 spouses and 23 of their serving partners to examine the benefits and impact of the support provided. The majority of spouses and their serving partners perceived the employment support as providing a positive contribution from the military to help spouses get back into employment or improve their employability. Additionally, spouses felt invested in by the military and valued as constituents in their own right. No impact of employment support for spouses on the intention to remain or leave the Armed Forces was identified. Longitudinal follow up will be required to determine any long-term impact of employment support on employment outcomes and retention.     

Simulation and multi‐attribute utility modelling of life cycle profit

Investments on capital goods are assessed with respect to the life cycle profit as well as the economic lifetime of the investment. The outcome of an investment with respect to these economic criteria is generally non‐deterministic. An assessment of different investment options thus requires probabilistic modelling to explicitly account for the uncertainties. A process for the assessment of life cycle profit and the evaluation of the adequacy of the assessment is developed. The primary goal of the assessment process is to aid the decision‐maker in structuring and quantifying investment decision problems characterized by multiple criteria and uncertainty. The adequacy of the assessment process can be evaluated by probabilistic criteria indicating the degree of uncertainty in the assessment. Bayesian inference is used to re‐evaluate the initial assessment, as evidence of the system performance becomes available. Thus authentication of contracts of guarantee is supported. Numerical examples are given to demonstrate features of the described life cycle profit assessment process. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

青少年早期负面评价恐惧的发展轨迹及其影响因素

采用问卷法对977名初中生在校三年间负面评价恐惧的发展状况进行三次追踪测试，通过建构潜变量增长模型，检验初中生负面评价恐惧的变化趋势，并考察学业自尊和社交自尊对负面评价恐惧变化的影响。结果发现：（1）初中青少年负面评价恐惧呈上升趋势；（2）从初一到初三，学生较高的学业自尊和社交自尊显著抑制负面评价恐惧的增长；（3）性别对负面评价恐惧发展轨迹的影响是由于自尊的性别差异引起的。     

Do overall dimension ratings from assessment centres show external construct-related validity?

ABSTRACT

There have been repeated calls for an external construct validation approach to advance our understanding of the construct-related validity of assessment centre dimension ratings beyond existing internal construct-related validity findings. Following an external construct validation approach, we examined whether linking assessment centre overall dimension ratings to ratings of the same dimensions that stem from sources external to the assessment centre provides evidence for construct-related validity of assessment centre ratings. We used data from one laboratory assessment centre sample and two field samples. External ratings of the same dimensions stemmed from assessees, assessees’ supervisors, and customers. Results converged across all three samples and showed that different dimension-same source correlations within the assessment centres were larger than same dimension-different source correlations. Moreover, confirmatory factor analyses revealed source factors but no dimension factors in the latent factor structure of overall dimension ratings from the assessment centre and from external sources. Hence, consistent results across the three samples provide no support that assessment centre overall dimension ratings and ratings of the same dimensions from other sources can be attributed to dimension factors. This questions arguments that assessment centre overall dimension ratings should have construct-related validity.     

Sieges, Shipwrecks, andSensible Knaves: Justice and Utility in Butler and Hume

By examining the theories of justice developed by Joseph Butler and David Hume, the author discloses the conceptual limits of their moral naturalism. Butler was unable to accommodate the possibility that justice is, at least to some extent, a social convention. Hume, who more presciently tried to spell out the conventional character of justice, was unable to carry through that project within the framework of his moral naturalism. These limits have gone unnoticed,largely because Butler and Hume have been misinterpreted, their relation misconstrued. Exegetes have persistently misunderstood the differences that divide them, have misconceived the notion of "public utility" in Hume's account of justice, have wrongly interpreted Butler as a forerunner of Immanuel Kant, and have altogether missed the degree to which Hume stands in the tradition of Thomas Aquinas.