Utility,Informativity and Protocols

Recently, natural language pragmatics started to make use of decision-, game-, and information theoretical tools to determine the usefulness of questions and assertions in a quantitative way. In the first part of this paper several of these notions are related with each other. It is shown that under particular natural assumptions the utility of questions and answers reduces to their informativity, and that the ordering relation induced by utility sometimes even reduces to the logical relation of entailment. The second part of the paper shows how different proposals (using either protocols or likelihood functions) to measure the relevance/utility of non-partitional questions come down to the same thing.     

Is Reported Happiness Five Years Ago Comparable to Present Happiness? A Cautionary Note

In the United States reported happiness five years ago is not comparable to present happiness. The improvement in happiness over the last five years obtained by differencing current reports of happiness today and happiness five years ago is not significantly related to the actual improvement in happiness over the same period. The currently reported five-year change in happiness is highly sensitive to current economic conditions, varying inversely with both the inflation and unemployment rates.Ordinarily, happiness five years ago as currently reported is less than present happiness, but the worse the current economic conditions are, the better the past looks relative to the present. If current economic conditions get bad enough, past happiness will be rated higher than present. Reports of happiness five years ago are not telling us about the utility respondents actually experienced at that time; they are telling us, instead, about respondents' current decision utility–which situation, today's or that five years ago, they would opt for if given the choice today.     

Verisimilitude and the Dynamicsof Scientific Research Programmes

Some peculiarities of the evaluation of theories within scientific research programmes (SRPs) and of the assessing of rival SRPs are described assuming that scientists try to maximise an ‘epistemic utility function’ under economic and institutional constraints. Special attention is given to Lakatos' concepts of ‘empirical progress’ and ‘theoretical progress’. A notion of ‘empirical verisimilitude’ is defended as an appropriate utility function. The neologism ‘methodonomics’ is applied to this kind of studies. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Regular Minimality and Thurstonian-type modeling

A Thurstonian-type model for pairwise comparisons is any model in which the response (e.g., “they are the same” or “they are different”) to two stimuli being compared depends, deterministically or probabilistically, on the realizations of two randomly varying representations (perceptual images) of these stimuli. The two perceptual images in such a model may be stochastically interdependent but each has to be selectively dependent on its stimulus. It has been previously shown that all possible discrimination probability functions for same–different comparisons can be generated by Thurstonian-type models of the simplest variety, with independent percepts and deterministic decision rules. It has also been shown, however, that a broad class of Thurstonian-type models, called “well-behaved” (and including, e.g., models with multivariate normal perceptual representations whose parameters are smooth functions of stimuli) cannot simultaneously account for two empirically plausible properties of same–different comparisons, Regular Minimality (which essentially says that “being least discriminable from” is a symmetric relation) and nonconstancy of the minima of discrimination probabilities (the fact that different pairs of least discriminable stimuli are discriminated with different probabilities). These results have been obtained for stimulus spaces represented by regions of Euclidean spaces. In this paper, the impossibility for well-behaved Thurstonian-type models to simultaneously account for Regular Minimality and nonconstancy of minima is established for a much broader notion of well-behavedness applied to a much broader class of stimulus spaces (any Hausdorff arc-connected ones). The universality of Thurstonian-type models with independent perceptual images and deterministic decision rules is shown (by a simpler proof than before) to hold for arbitrary stimulus spaces.     

Multiattribute signed orders

A self-reflecting signed order is a preference relation that compares relative likes and dislikes for items in a set X by jointly ordering X and a disjoint copy of X. If you would like Jones but not Smith appointed to a committee, and also think it more important to exclude Smith than include Jones, your self-reflecting signed order records this information. We review basic representational theory for signed orders, then examine them when X is multiattributed. Axioms for additive measurement of multiattribute self-reflecting signed orders are specified for several X-structures.     

External analyses of preference models

Using Carroll's external analysis, several studies have found that unfolding models account for more, although seldom significantly more, variance in preferences than Tucker's vector model. In studies of sociometric ratings and political preferences, the unfolding model again rarely outpredicted the vector model by a significant amount. Yet on cross-validation, the unfolding model consistently accounted for more variance. Results suggest that sometimes significance tests are less sensitive than cross-validation procedures to the small but consistent superiority of the unfolding model. Future researchers may wish to use significance tests and cross-validation techniques in comparing models.     

On a metric,unidimensional unfolding model for attitudinal and developmental data

If stimulus responses are linearly related to squared distances between stimulus scale values and person scores along a latent continuum, (a) the stimulus × stimulus correlation matrix will display a simplex-like pattern, (b) the signs of first-order partial correlations can be specified in an empirically testable manner, and (c) the variables will have a semicircular, two-factor structure. Along the semicircle, variables will be ordered by their positions on the latent dimension. The above results suggest procedures for examining the appropriateness of the model and procedures for ordering the stimuli. Applications to developmental and attitudinal data are discussed. This research was supported by a grant from the Graduate School of the University of Minnesota to the author and by a grant from the U. S. Public Health Service (Grant No. 1-R01-MH27861-01) to Dr. James Rest, Principal Investigator.     

Relationships between assessment and treatment within a behavioral perspective

Three alternative strategies to link assessment and treatment within a behavioral perspective are described. First is the functional analysis in which the maintaining variables of the target behavior are identified in assessment and modified in treatment. Although this strategy appears to be frequently successful based on positive treatment outcome, critical tests are seldom done: hypothesized functional analyses are not tested prior to intervention; nor is treatment outcome based on one functional analysis pitted against treatment outcome based on an alternative functional analysis. The second strategy is the keystone target behavior strategy. From among multiple possible target behaviors, one is selected for intervention that produces therapeutic response covariation. The third strategy is the diagnostic strategy. A treatment is selected for a particular client based on its overall success in treating a particular disorder. Empirical comparisons are needed to evaluate the effectiveness of these different strategies, linking assessment and treatment for different disorders.Portions of this paper were presented as invited addresses at the meetings of the Association for Advancement of Behavior Therapy, Philadelphia, November 1984, and of the American Psychological Association, Washington, DC, August 1986.     

Fairness

The main body of this paper assesses a leading recent theory of fairness, a theory put forward by John Broome. I discuss Broome's theory partly because of its prominence and partly because I think it points us in the right direction, even if it takes some missteps. In the course of discussing Broome's theory, I aim to cast light on the relation of fairness to consistency, equality, impartiality, desert, rights, and agreements. Indeed, before I start assessing Broome's theory, I discuss two very popular conceptions of fairness that contrast with his. One of these very popular conceptions identifies fairness with the equal and impartial application of rules. The other identifies fairness with all-things-considered moral rightness.     

两难情景下任务结构与价值取向的效用特征转换

实验采用两难对策任务的情景模拟 ,研究决策者在群体决策情景当中的效用特征转换。 6 2名被试参加了实验。研究发现 ,任务结构与个体价值取向都是影响决策效用特征转换的重要因素 ,并且这种效用特征的转换有稳定关系存在 ,以此为基础来设计组织计算机团队工作具有重要意义