Attribute weighting methods and decision quality in the presence of response error: a simulation study

This paper uses a simulation approach to investigate how different attribute weighting techniques affect the quality of decisions based on multiattribute value models. The weighting methods considered include equal weighting of all attributes, two methods for using judgments about the rank ordering of weights, and a method for using judgments about the ratios of weights. The question addressed is: How well does each method perform when based on judgments of attribute weights that are unbiased but subject to random error? To address this question, we employ simulation methods. The simulation results indicate that ratio weights were either better than rank order weights (when error in the ratio weights was small or moderate) or tied with them (when error was large). Both ratio weights and rank order weights were substantially superior to the equal weights method in all cases studied. Our findings suggest that it will usually be worth the extra time and effort required to assess ratio weights. In cases where the extra time or effort required is too great, rank order weights will usually give a good approximation to the true weights. Comparisons of the two rank-order weighting methods favored the rank-order-centroid method over the rank-sum method. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Lexicographic order preservation and stochastic dominance

Stochastic dominance concerns conditions on outcome probabilities that are necessary and sufficient for one act to be (strictly) preferred to another according to all preference relations that share certain properties, one of which customarily is an Archimedean property sufficient to entail existence of real-valued representations. We relax this assumption to permit linear lexicographic utility of finite and known dimensionality. In some situations, levels of the lexicographic hierarchy could correspond to explicit criteria or attributes. In our model, subjective probabilities emerge as matrix premultipliers of the outcome utility vectors. We thus obtain matrix probability generalizations of the familiar cumulative probability conditions for stochastic dominance.     

Would you rather teleport or spend some time commuting? Investigating individuals’ teleportation preferences

The “teleportation test” is a unique question—used in some travel behavior research since the 2000s—to examine individuals’ perceptions towards travel time and affinities for travel. It gives people a hypothetical choice between teleporting or spending some time traveling. All studies (using different methods, including focus groups, interviews, and questionnaires) have consistently reported high teleportation preferences (about 70%). Yet, few correlates of teleportation preferences (especially sociodemographic and perceptual characteristics) have been investigated. Using data from an online questionnaire of 648 commuters in Portland, Oregon, this study investigated factors affecting individuals’ teleportation preferences. While generally representative of the area’s commuters, the sample did have higher shares of high-income workers and people using active modes or transit. Overall, 62% of respondents preferred to teleport than to spend some time commuting. Results from binary logit models identified actual commute duration, typical mode of travel, and “ideal” travel time (but no demographic attributes) as major predictors of preferences to teleport. As expected, people with longer commute durations had a greater desire to teleport, whereas bicyclists and pedestrians more often preferred to commute. People with longer ideal travel times had a greater affinity to commute and were less keen to teleport. Analysis of follow-up questions exploring reasons for respondents’ answers suggested that most “teleporters” were motivated by saving time to do other things, while most “commuters” found parts of their commutes to be enjoyable or productive. Findings from this study are consistent with related studies in implying that a teleportation preference does not necessarily represent zero ideal travel time or viewing travel time as wasted. Finally, this study discusses several travel behavior policy implications of the teleportation test, along with limitations and areas for future research.     

Invited Review—Survey of Value‐Focused Thinking: Applications,Research Developments and Areas for Future Research

Criteria are the central focus of multi‐criteria decision analysis. Many authors have suggested using our values (or preferences) to define the criteria we use to evaluate alternatives. Value‐focused thinking (VFT) is an important philosophy that advocates a more fundamental view of values in our decision making in our private and professional lives. VFT proponents advocate starting first with our values and then using our values to create decision opportunities, evaluate alternatives and finally develop improved alternatives. It has been 20 years since VFT was first introduced by Ralph Keeney. This paper surveys the VFT literature to provide a comprehensive summary of the significant applications, describe the main research developments and identify areas for future research. We review the scope and magnitude of VFT applications and the key developments in theory since VFT was introduced in 1992 and found 89 papers written in 29 journals from 1992 to 2010. We develop about 20 research questions that include the type of article (application, theory, case study, etc.), the size of the decision space (which, when given, ranged from $200K to billions of dollars), the contribution documented in the article (application benefits) and the research contributions (categorized by preferences, uncertainties and alternatives). After summarizing the answers to these questions, we conclude the paper with suggestions for improving VFT applications and potential future research. We found a large number of significant VFT applications and several useful research contributions. We also found an increasing number of VFT papers written by international authors. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of an individualist vs. collectivist context on the social valorization of internal explanations

The theory of the norm of internality emphasizes the role of Western individualism in the normativity of internal explanations. The present study examines the link between the social value accorded to targets expressing internal vs. external explanations and individualist vs. collectivist contexts. Sixty-three male and female French management sciences students evaluated two targets (internal vs. external) in a simulated recruitment situation. The job vacancy was partially manipulated to create individualist vs. collectivist contexts. Participants were asked to state whether or not they would recruit the targets and to describe the targets on traits relating to social utility (market value) and social desirability (likeability). As expected, the results showed that the effect of the targets' internality on recruitment judgments and perceived social utility was stronger in the individualist context than in the collectivist context. However, the analysis also revealed that the participant's gender moderated the impact of the context on the evaluation of the targets. The results showed that the context strongly affected the men's judgments, whereas it had no effect on the women's judgments.     

Is Mozi a utilitarian philosopher?

In this essay I argue that Mozi’s philosophy is anything but utilitarianism by way of analysing four ethical theories. Utilitarianism is an ethics in which the moral subject is an atomic individual human being, and its concern is how to fulfill the interests of the individual self and the social majority. Confucian ethics is centered on the notion of the family and its basic question is that of priority in the relationship between the small self and the enlarged or collective self. Opposite to these two moral theories is Mozi’s ethics: The interests that Mozi is primarily concerned with are not the interests of my individual self or my collective self, but the interests of the other. The fulfillment of the material needs of the other is my moral obligation. The arguments are centered on the three basic concepts, “the I,” “the we,” and “the other.” The significance of Mozi’s thought in modern or postmodern context lies in its striking resemblance to the philosophy of a contemporary western philosopher, Levinas. In both Mozi and Levinas, there is a suspension of utilitarianism. __________ Translated from Zhongguo Zhexue Shi 中国哲学史 (History of Chinese Philosophy), 2005 (1)     

Incentive theory: IV. Magnitude of reward

Incentive theory is successfully applied to data from experiments in which the amount of food reward is varied. This is accomplished by assuming that incentive value is a negatively accelerated function of reward duration. The interaction of the magnitude of a reward with its delay is confirmed, and the causes and implications of this interaction are discussed.     

Are preference reversals reduced when made explicit?

Previous research has shown that preferences for options, such as gambles, can reverse depending on the response mode. These preference reversals have been demonstrated when tasks were performed sequentially. That is, subjects completed one task before beginning another. In an attempt to eliminate preference reversals, we asked subjects to perform tasks simultaneously. That is, subjects made two types of responses for each pair of gambles before evaluating the next pair. In the condition with no financial incentives, preference reversal rates were slightly reduced. In another condition, subjects were paid for their participation and they were allowed to play a gamble with real monetary compensation. A gamble pair was randomly selected, and if a subject's responses in the two tasks were consistent for that pair, he or she was allowed to play the ‘preferred’ gamble. Otherwise, the experimenter selected the gamble from the pair. With these financial incentives, systematic preference reversals were eliminated for two of the three task combinations. Preference reversals continued to occur for attractiveness ratings versus selling prices, although, even for that pair of tasks, the reversal rate was significantly reduced. For all three task pairs, preference orders from the two tasks appeared to merge into more consistent orders.     

Taboo Trade-offs: Reactions to Transactions That Transgress the Spheres of Justice

Taboo trade-offs violate deeply held normative intuitions about the integrity, even sanctity, of certain relationships and the moral-political values underlying those relationships. For instance, if asked to estimate the monetary worth of one's children, of one's loyalty to one's country, or of acts of friendship, people find the questions more than merely confusing or cognitively intractable: they find such questions themselves morally offensive. This article draws on Fiske's relational theory and Tetlock's value pluralism model: (a) to identify the conditions under which people are likely to treat trade-offs as taboo; (b) to describe how people collectively deal with trade-offs that become problematic; (c) to specify the conceptual components of moral outrage and the factors that affect the intensity of reactions to various explicit trade-offs; (d) to explore the various strategies that decision-makers—required by resource scarcity and institutional roles to confront taboo trade-offs—use to deflect the wrath of censorious observers; (e) to offer a method of dispute resolution based on pluralism.     

La motivation et son ancrage utilitaire/désirable dans l’évaluation

Motivation has an important place among the personal characteristics that professional assessors take in account. A first study shows that different professionals do not choose the same criteria to assess motivation and also shows that normative factors affect their judgement. Then a series of studies focuses on the valorization of intrinsic motivation and on the anchoring in utility / desirability of this attribution of value. It appears that, compared with extrinsically motivated applicants, intrinsically motivated applicants are rather described by judges with desirable traits than with utility traits. This result is found as well with professionals and non professional respondents. So it seems that the valorization of intrinsic motivation would be more anchored in desirability than in utility, which is a difference with the norm of internality that is clearly anchored in utility.