Egocentrism and focalism in unrealistic optimism (and pessimism)

People tend to overestimate their comparative likelihood of experiencing a rosy future. The present research suggests that one reason for this error is that when people compare their likelihood of experiencing an event with that of the average person, they focus on their own chances of experiencing the event and insufficiently consider the likelihood of the average person experiencing the event. As a consequence, people tend to think that they are more likely than the average person to experience common events and less likely than the average person to experience rare events. This causes unrealistic optimism in the case of common desirable events and rare undesirable events, but unrealistic pessimism in the case of rare desirable events and common undesirable events (Studies 1 and 2). Study 2 further suggests that both egocentrism and focalism underlie these biases. These results suggest that unrealistic optimism is not as ubiquitous as once thought.     

Comparative Optimism and Event Skewness

Comparative judgment biases—wherein a majority of people report being above‐ or below‐average in their abilities, traits, or future events—are a robust phenomenon in psychology. A recent explanation for these biases has focused on people's awareness that many comparative judgment domains form skewed distributions, and, hence, a majority of people can feasibly be above or below average. Indeed, this prior research found that comparative biases for abilities emerged more for skewed (vs. normal) distributions. In the current research, we attempted to (i) conceptually replicate this finding in a comparative likelihood context and (ii) provide evidence of an alternative explanation for the prior results. Replicating prior research, three correlational studies and one experimental study found that event skewness was related to direct comparative likelihood judgments for health events, such that comparative optimism emerged more for events judged or manipulated to come from positively skewed distributions than from negatively skewed distributions. However, event skewness was unrelated to indirect comparisons (absolute self minus absolute other). Moreover, consistent with an egocentric‐processes account, absolute self‐judgments were more predictive of direct comparisons than were absolute other judgments and showed the same association with event skewness as direct comparisons. Implications for explaining and interpreting comparative judgment biases are discussed. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Psychology of Future-Oriented Thinking: From Achievement to Proactive Coping,Adaptation, and Aging

Contributions to this special issue examine multiple aspects of how people think about and prepare for desired and undesired future outcomes, including the processes that link thoughts about one's present situation to possible future outcomes and those that promote the balanced pursuit of long-term vs. short-term goals. They also identify new distinctions among widely studied future-oriented thoughts and feelings (e.g., optimism versus hope). Several contributions examine proactive efforts to prevent adverse effects or reduce their impact in such challenging contexts as being discriminated against, aging and becoming disabled, preparing for potential disasters, or coping with terrorist attacks. Two final contributions examine the implications of temporal factors for advance decision-making in medicine and business. This introductory article highlights the central issues addressed by the contributions and discusses ways in which studying future-oriented thoughts, feelings, and behavior in the contexts of stress and lifespan development may extend our understanding of future-oriented phenomena beyond the achievement domain.     

震区羌族初中生的家庭损失与应对方式:乐观的调节作用

目的考察5.12汶川地震后羌族青少年的家庭损失程度、乐观和应对方式之间的关系。方法采用生活定向测验问卷、特质应对方式问卷和家庭损失的自编测量题项对震区421名羌族初中学生进行了问卷调查。结果 (1)个体遭受的家庭损失程度较重,但其乐观水平较高,且积极应对水平亦显著高于消极应对。(2)家庭损失与乐观和积极应对方式呈显著负相关,与消极应对方式呈显著正相关。(3)乐观在家庭损失与应对方式的关系之间有着显著的调节作用。结论乐观能较好地缓解地震造成的家庭损失对羌族初中生应对方式的不良影响。     

女性主义视野下的艾滋病与技术乐观论——科技发展不能代替社会责任

自从1981年发现世界第一个艾滋病人以来,艾滋病对人类的危害越来越严重。产生这种情况的原因除了一般的社会因素之外,还有一个重要的因素就是人类所持的技术乐观主义的观点,使得人们认为艾滋病在很短的时期内就可以得到有效的解决。这种对于技术的过于乐观对有效控制艾滋病产生的影响并不好,人类需要重新审视自己应对艾滋病的态度。女性主义视野的介入给我们提供了一种新的认识艾滋病的角度,更有利于在解决问题中的正确定位。     

Examining the trade‐off between confidence and optimism in future forecasts

Confident business forecasters are seen as more credible and competent (“confidence heuristic”). We explored a boundary condition of this effect by examining how individuals react to the trade‐off between confidence and optimism. Using hypothetical scenarios, we examined this trade‐off from the perspectives of judges (i.e., business owners who hired analysts to make sales predictions) and forecasters (i.e., the analysts hired to make predictions). Participants were assigned to the role of either judges or forecasters and were asked to rate 2 potential forecasts. In the “no trade‐off” condition, the 2 forecasts were aligned in optimism and confidence (the more confident forecast was also more optimistic); in the “trade‐off” condition, the more confident forecast was less optimistic. In Experiment 1, judges were more likely to positively evaluate confident forecasters when confident forecasters were the more (vs. less) optimistic ones. Experiment 2 demonstrated that forecasters were aware of judges' preferences for optimism and strategically relied on methods that resulted in more optimistic (but less reliable) predictions. Experiment 3 directly compared the perspectives of judges and forecasters, revealing that forecasters overestimated judges' preferences for optimism over confidence. The present studies show that forecasters and judges have different views of the trade‐off between confidence and optimism and that forecasters may unnecessarily sacrifice accuracy for optimism.     

Lay Theories of Happiness

Over 230 young people completed a battery of questionnaires measuring personality, self-esteem, and happiness as well as one developed specifically for this study on their theories of the causes of happiness. The 36 causes factored into six internally coherent and interpretable factors. Self-reported happiness, extraversion and sex were correlated with the lay theory factors. Four of the six factors were modestly (r < 0.20) correlated with the Oxford Happiness Inventory (OHI) scores. Path analysis, using the OHI as the dependent variable, showed self-esteem, extraversion and neuroticism direct predictors of happiness but that among the lay theories, only lay theories about optimism and contentment were direct predictors. Personality and demographic variables did predict the lay theories but the latter did not act as moderator or mediating factors between the former and happiness. The role and function of lay theories with respect to happiness are discussed.     

Being an optimist or a pessimist and its relationship with morning cortisol release and past life review in healthy older people

Objective: Investigate the relationship between optimism and pessimism and the cortisol awakening response (CAR) and past life review in healthy older people.

Design: 76 older volunteers summarised their lives, highlighting the most important events, impressions and experiences. Cortisol saliva samples were collected on two consecutive weekdays. High and low optimism and pessimism groups were computed by mean split.

Main Outcome Measures: Percentages of positive (PE) and negative events (NE) and positive (PCE) and negative cognitions and emotions (NCE) were obtained. Optimism and pessimism were measured with the Life Orientation Test Revised. The areas under the curve with respect to the ground and with respect to the increase were computed, with the latter understood as the CAR.

Results: The high pessimism group reported more NE and NCE and less PE and PCE (p’s < 0.041). No significant differences in CAR were found between high and low optimism and pessimism groups after removing suspected non-adherent participants (p’s > 0.116). Higher CAR was related to lower PCE, but higher NCE (both p < 0.008).

Conclusion: Pessimism seems to increase the focus on negative aspects of the past, which may lead to a worse perception of life in ageing, whereas optimism contributes to a healthier CAR.     

Fountain of youth: The impact of nostalgia on youthfulness and implications for health

The present research explored the impact of nostalgia on feelings of youthfulness, as well as the health benefits of nostalgia-induced youthfulness. Previous research indicates that feeling younger than one’s current age has positive implications for health. We predicted that, relative to ordinary autobiographical memories, nostalgic memories would make people feel more youthful. Further, we predicted that feelings of youthfulness would in turn lead to more positive attitudes about health and physical ability. Studies 1 and 2 demonstrated that, as people get older, nostalgic reverie relative to a control makes them feel more youthful. In Study 3, adults 40 and older who recalled a nostalgic memory from high school reported feeling more youthful than those who recalled an ordinary high school memory. Nostalgia-induced youthfulness in turn predicted the extent to which participants felt healthy, confident about their physical abilities, and optimistic about their future health. These findings suggest that nostalgia promotes a younger view of the self that may be beneficial for health.     

Effectiveness of cognitive behavioral therapy on health‐related quality of life: An evaluation of therapies provided by trainee therapists

The present study was carried out to examine the treatment effect of cognitive behavioral therapy provided by trainee therapists at a university clinic, focusing on health‐related quality of life (HRQOL) optimism and symptoms. The study was conducted through a repeated measures design and included a treatment group (n = 21), which received cognitive behavioral therapy for an average of 10.7 therapy sessions and a control group (n = 14), that was put on a wait list for 8.6 weeks on average. After treatment, the treatment group improved significantly concerning general health (p = 0.028) and optimism (p = 0.027). In addition, clients improved in several areas within mental health and displayed some reduction in anxiety symptoms. Concurrently, the results also indicated some improvement within the control group, which may have been caused by the initial therapeutic contact, expectancy effects or spontaneous remission. The study concluded that cognitive behavioral therapy provided by trainee therapists may have a positive effect on areas within HRQOL and optimism.