Behaving Optimistically: How the (Un)Desirability of an Outcome Can Bias People's Preparations for It

Past research on the desirability bias and on bracing for bad news has focused on the potential influence of outcome desirability on people's stated expectations. The present studies examined its influence on behavior—that is, what is done in anticipation of, or preparation for, an uncertain outcome. In five studies, the desirability of possible outcomes for an event, which was uncertain and uncontrollable by the participant, was manipulated, and preparation behavior was measured. Study 1 used a hypothetical‐events paradigm. Studies 2 and 3 involved a computer activity in which behavior was tracked on a trial‐by‐trial basis. In Studies 4 and 5, the uncertain event was the ending of a videotaped basketball game. Rather than exhibiting bracing or a reluctance to tempt fate, participants tended to behave in a manner consistent with an optimistic desirability bias. In a subset of studies, predictions and likelihood judgments were also solicited; the differential effects of outcome desirability on these measures are discussed. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

气质性乐观的正性偏向及其神经生理研究证据

气质性乐观是对未来的总体的积极期待。乐观能够带给个体诸多好处, 如有利于提高身体健康, 提高幸福感, 促进成功等等, 究其原因可能是乐观者存在正性偏向。这一偏向主要体现在注意、知觉、记忆、解释风格、应对策略的选择、情绪、期待及动机方面。而乐观者正性偏向产生的神经生理机制可能与前扣带回喙部、前额叶皮质的激活水平变化有关。未来研究可将乐观的核心--期待--作为重点, 整合期待−价值理论、人格理论与神经基础来进一步探讨乐观的心理机制。     

How probable is probably? It depends on whom you're talking about

Two studies tested whether people interpreted verbal chance terms in a self‐serving manner. Participants read statements describing the likelihood of events in their own future and in the future of a randomly chosen other. They interpreted the chance terms numerically. Chance terms were interpreted as denoting a higher probability when they were used to describe the likelihood of pleasant events in one's own future than when they were used to describe the likelihood of pleasant events in someone else's future (Study 1). Similarly, chance terms were interpreted as denoting a lower probability when they were used to describe the likelihood of unpleasant events in one's own future than when they were used to describe the likelihood of unpleasant events in someone else's future (Studies 1 and 2). These differences occurred primarily when the risk statements were threatening. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

班级辅导对改善初中生乐观心理品质的实验研究

以《生活取向测量修订版》、《儿童解释风格问卷》、《中国中学生心理健康量表》为评估工具,从积极心理学和积极心理健康教育的理念出发,对实验班进行8周的班级辅导。结果表明:班级心理辅导能改善和培养初中生乐观心理品质。     

A new measure for dispositional optimism and pessimism in young children

We describe here a new test for dispositional optimism and pessimism in young children, the Parent‐rated Life Orientation Test of children (the PLOT) and assess its psychometric properties. Two hundred and twenty one mother–father pairs rated their children's (mean age = 8.1, SD = 0.3 years) dispositional optimism and pessimism using a new scale, the PLOT, including four optimism and four pessimism items. We associated the PLOT with parent‐rated self‐esteem (Behavioral Rating Scale of Presented Self‐Esteem in Young Children), social competence (Social Competence and Behaviour Evaluation Scale, the SCBE‐30), psychiatric symptoms (Child Behaviour Checklist, the CBCL) and temperament (Children's Behaviour Questionnaire, the CBQ) of the child. A confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) of the mother‐ and father‐rated PLOT revealed a significantly better fit for a two‐ over a one‐factor solution (p < 0.001). The optimism and pessimism subscales displayed good reliabilities, inter‐parental agreement and modest to moderate associations, in the expected direction, with the measures of self‐esteem, social competence, temperament and behaviour problems. To conclude, the PLOT shows good construct and convergent validity and reliability. The findings encourage its use to assess early emerging generalized expectancies of positive and negative outcomes in young children. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

希望和乐观——两种未来指向的积极预期

在积极心理学中,希望和乐观虽然存在很大程度的概念重叠,但二者本质上是不同的概念。希望的概念核心是以目标为中心的动力思维和路径思维,乐观的概念核心是指向未来的积极预期。作为两种指向未来的积极预期,希望和乐观属于人格特质的范畴,共同成分是对目标的信念;二者的差异性在于对未来预期的方式和对预期事件的个人控制。相关研究发现,相对于乐观,希望通常是主观幸福感和学业成就更好的预测指标。未来研究应明确希望和乐观的整合,验证是否存在控制点的调节作用,并开展跨文化研究。     

从习得无助、习得乐观到积极心理学—— Seligman对心理学发展的贡献

Seligman先生开创了习得无助和习得乐观的研究领域。20世纪末他树立起积极心理学的大旗,将心理学引向探索和促进人类性格力量发展和美德完善的轨道,反转了20世纪中后期心理学过分关注人性的消极面和弱点的研究取向,界定了积极心理学三个明确的研究领域：积极的情感、积极的特征和积极的社会制度。他提出幸福的三要素原则,并运用幸福理论治愈抑郁和提升人们的幸福感。近年来他致力于研究人类的美德和优势,并提出运用美德和优势治疗心理疾病的积极心理治疗理论（PPT）     

Inherent biases in decision support systems: the influence of optimistic and pessimistic DSS on choice,affect, and attitudes

This study investigates the influence of a decision aid on decision makers' model‐based choices, emotions during the use of the model, and attitudes towards the model. A time allocation decision model was biased to purposefully provide optimistic or pessimistic criterion levels, on which subjects based their allocations. The results of our experiment indicate that the degree of “optimism” and “pessimism” inherent in the decision model had a significant impact on the decision maker's choices of criterion values, with optimism leading to higher criterion level choices and pessimism to lower levels. Furthermore, compared to pessimistic models, optimistic models significantly improved the decision makers' emotional states and, to some degree, their attitudes towards the decision aid. The implications of these conscious and sub‐conscious influences on decision makers' choices, emotions, and attitudes are discussed and the need for model‐builders and users to be aware of them is highlighted. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Is Optimism Always Best?: Future Outlooks and Preparedness

ABSTRACT— Although people generally appear optimistic about the future, they shift from optimism under certain circumstances. Drawing from a recent review of the literature, we describe how both optimism and shifts from optimism serve the common goal of preparedness, which includes a readiness to deal with setbacks and a readiness to take advantage of opportunities. Shifts from optimism occur in response to available information and to the possibility that things may not turn out as hoped. People tend to shift from optimism when feedback is anticipated in the near future, when the outcome is important, when negative outcomes are easily imagined, and when the outcomes are uncontrollable. In addition, people with low self-esteem shift from optimism more readily than do people with high self-esteem. Finally, both optimism and shifts from optimism have unique benefits in terms of preparedness.     

Inventor perseverance after being told to quit: the role of cognitive biases

We find that approximately one third (29%) of independent inventors continue to spend money and 51% continue to spend time on projects after receiving highly diagnostic advice to cease effort. Using survey data from actual inventors, this paper studies the role of overconfidence, optimism, and the sunk‐cost bias in these decisions. We find that inventors are more overconfident and optimistic than the general population. We also find that optimism and past expenditures increased perseverance after being told to quit, while overconfidence in judgment ability had no effect. After being told to quit, optimists spend 166% more than pessimists and those having already spent, for example, $10 000 spend another $10 000. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.