Super-ordinary bias in Japanese self-predictions of future life events

Japanese are said to value being ordinary and emphasize similarity with others. We theorized that Japanese tend to perceive themselves as being ordinary, so much so that their self-predictions about future life events are biased (super-ordinary bias). Specifically, it was expected that Japanese overestimate the likelihood of experiencing common events (such as getting married or catching the flu) and underestimate the likelihood of experiencing rare events (such as winning a lottery or being murdered). We examined the effects of commonness and desirability of future life events on the relative-likelihood estimates. Our expectation was supported by three studies, involving a questionnaire, a laboratory experiment, and a mail survey. Findings are consistent with the assumed tendency to view oneself as being super-ordinary. The super-ordinary bias was also found to be independent of unrealistic optimism or pessimism.     

Character strengths predict resilience over and above positive affect,self-efficacy,optimism, social support,self-esteem,and life satisfaction

The incremental value of character strengths in the prediction of resilience, after the effects of other well-known resilience-related factors (i.e. positive affect, self-efficacy, optimism, social support, self-esteem, life satisfaction) and sociodemographic variables are accounted for, is examined. Using a cross-sectional design, participants (N = 363 adults) completed online measures of character strengths, resilience, and resilience-related factors. A principal component analysis of character strengths was conducted and five factors were extracted, which could be interpreted as emotional, interpersonal, intellectual, restraint, and theological strengths. All strengths factors, except theological strengths, yielded significant positive correlations with resilience. A hierarchical regression showed that strengths predicted an additional 3% of the variance in resilience over and above sociodemographic variables, positive affect, self-efficacy, optimism, social support, self-esteem, and life satisfaction. Emotional strengths and strengths of restraint were significant positive predictors. Implications, limitations, and future research are discussed.     

‘It seems at the moment my career is dependent on factors outside of my control’: reflections on graduates’ experiences of employment and career enactment in an era of economic uncertainty and austerity

ABSTRACT

This paper explores contested notions of the purpose of education and careers work. The research for the paper examines public sector employee reactions to notion of a psychological contract breach, when cuts in funding put their jobs and careers at risk. It argues that, in this environment, the search for career fulfilment can be marked by feelings of cruel optimism, wicked problems and broken expectations. The findings are then used to present the case for further research, firstly, to address the notion of possible selves, as individuals explore alternative identity affirming career opportunities; and secondly, the impact of changes in public policy on the processes of psychological contracting between students and staff in further and higher education.     

被动性社交网站使用与自尊和自我概念清晰性:有调节的中介模型

为探讨被动性社交网站使用对自尊和自我概念清晰性的影响及其作用机制,在社会比较理论和乐观的保护性作用的视角下,采用问卷法对1208名大学生进行调查。结果表明:(1)被动性社交网站使用对自尊没有直接的预测作用,但能通过上行社会比较的中介作用负向预测自尊;(2)被动性社交网站使用不仅能够直接负向预测自我概念清晰性,还能通过上行社会比较的中介作用对其产生影响;(3)上行社会比较的中介效应受到乐观的调节,相对于乐观水平高的个体,间接效应在乐观水平低的个体中更为显著;(4)此外,在乐观水平高的个体中,上行社会比较对自尊的负向预测作用以及上行社会比较在被动性社交网站使用与自尊之间的中介作用都不显著,但是上行社会比较对自我概念清晰性的负向预测作用以及上行社会比较在被动性使用与自我概念清晰性之间的中介作用仍然显著。研究结果有助于揭示被动性社交网站使用行为对自尊以及自我概念清晰性的影响及其作用机制,对维护与促进个体自我概念健康发展有一定启示意义。     

Born to be biased? Unrealistic optimism and error management theory

When individuals display cognitive biases, they are prone to developing systematically false beliefs. Evolutionary psychologists have argued that rather than being a flaw in human cognition, biases may actually be design features. In my paper, I assess the claim that unrealistic optimism is such a design feature because it is a form of error management. Proponents of this theory say that when individuals make decisions under uncertainty, it can be advantageous to err on the side of overconfidence if the potential gains through success are high and the costs of failure are low. I argue that there are a number of conceptual problems in matching the theory with the existing data. I also show that there is empirical evidence against the error management hypothesis.     

青少年的乐观与创伤后成长的关系:希望与反刍的中介作用

采用创伤暴露程度问卷、乐观问卷、希望问卷、反刍问卷和创伤后成长问卷,以雅安地震2.5年后的416名中学生为被试,考察其乐观、希望、反刍与创伤后成长（PTG）之间的关系。结果发现,在控制创伤暴露程度后,雅安地震2.5年后青少年的乐观可以直接正向预测PTG,也可以经过希望来间接地正向预测PTG,还可以通过希望经主动反刍的多重中介来正向预测PTG;甚至乐观还可以通过侵入性反刍经主动反刍间接地负向预测PTG,但预测作用远小于乐观对PTG的促进作用;乐观通过希望不能经侵入性反刍对PTG发挥显著的直接和间接预测作用,且乐观还不能直接通过主动反刍促进PTG。     

The rational side of egocentrism in social comparisons

Prior work has found that when people compare themselves with others they egocentrically focus on their own strengths and achievements more than on the (equally relevant) strengths and achievements of the comparison group. As a consequence, people tend to overestimate their comparative standing when absolute standing is high and underestimate their comparative standing when absolute standing is low. The present research investigated a rational discounting explanation of this bias—namely, that people weight the target of the comparison (the self) more than the referent of the comparison (others) because they typically have more knowledge about the former than the latter. In three studies, we found that the tendency to focus on the target in social comparisons—and the over and underestimation of relative standing that tendency engenders—was reduced (but not eliminated) as people’s knowledge about the comparison group increased. These results suggest that there may be a rational side to egocentrism in social comparisons.     

流动儿童的人格特点对主观幸福感的影响

该文探讨大五人格、乐观和掌控感对流动儿童主观幸福感的影响。运用幸福感自我评定量表、积极情感／消极情感量表（PANAS）修订版、学生总体生活满意度量表（SLSS）、学生多维生活领域满意度量表（MSLSS）、人格五因素问卷、生活取向测验修订版和掌控感量表对1018名流动儿童和319名城市儿童进行调查。结果：1）流动儿童的总体幸福感为7、0,正性情感多于负性情感,总体生活满意度为2、9;2）在正性人格特征（外向性、宜人性、谨慎性、开放性乐观和掌控感）得分上：打工校流动儿童〈混合校流动儿童〈公立校城市儿童,在负性人格特征（情绪性）则相反;3）对主观幸福感的分层回归分析显示外向性、神经质、开放性、掌控感和乐观对主观幸福感有着稳定且显著的影响作用,其中人格五因素起着主要的预测作用。结论：流动儿童的主观幸福整体偏上,打工校流动儿童的人格健全状况最差,人格五因素对主观幸福感起着主要的影响作用。