Cognitive antecedents to adolescent health risk: Discriminating between behavioral intention and behavioral willingness

Abstract

A model of adolescent health risk behavior that is both cognitive and social-psychological in orientation is described, and an aspect of the model is tested empirically. The model suggests that health risk behaviors (e.g., smoking or drunk driving), especially among adolescents, are not always intended or premeditated, but instead are often reactions to risk-conducive circumstances. Because they are not entirely premeditated, such behaviors are not accurately predicted by “traditional” behavioral intention measures, but are predicted by a central construct in the model labeled behavioral willingness. Results of two studies indicate that both intention (expectation) and willingness measures predict future risk behaviors, and do so independent of one another. Additional analyses provide further evidence of discriminant validity between the two constructs by indicating that they relate differently to perceptions of personal vulnerability to the health risks associated with these behaviors.     

The role of risk perception in explaining parental sunscreen use

Objective: This study assessed: (1) whether risk perceptions about skin cancer were related to parent's use of sunscreen on their children; (2) which combination of assessments susceptibility and severity best explain parental sunscreen protection behaviours and (3) whether risk perceptions influence behaviour directly through intentions or through attitudes, subjective norms and self-efficacy.

Design: Two longitudinal studies assessed sunscreen protection behaviours of parents for their toddlers (N?=?391) and young children (N?=?436).

Main outcome measure: Parent's use of sunscreen on their children.

Results: Risk perceptions correlated with future sunscreen protection behaviours of parents but were lower than those of attitude, social influence and self-efficacy. Treating susceptibility and severity as an additive function resulted in the best model fit. Risk perceptions were related with future intention and future sunscreen protection behaviour, but the effects were mediated through attitude, social influence and self-efficacy.

Conclusions: Our path analyses suggest treating susceptibility and severity as an additive function. A multiplicative model without main effects – although often used – had the poorest fit. Risk perceptions influence behaviour by influencing attitudinal and self-efficacy beliefs. Addressing risk perceptions in health communication programs is relevant when the purpose is to increase awareness and to influence attitudes and self-efficacy.     

Losses Induce Consistency in Risk Taking Even Without Loss Aversion

It is posited that because of the attentional effect of losses, individuals would show more behavioral consistency in risk‐taking tasks with losses, even in the absence of loss aversion. In two studies, the consistency of risky choices across different experience‐based tasks was evaluated for gain, loss, and mixed (gain loss) tasks. In both studies, losses facilitated the consistency across tasks: the correlation between risk‐taking choices in different tasks increased when the tasks involved frequent losses. Study 2 also showed a positive effect of losses on temporal consistency. Losses increased the correlation between risk‐taking levels across two sessions that were 45 days apart. Also in Study 2, losses induced consistency between experiential risk‐taking choices and self‐reported ratings of risky behavior. In both studies, the positive effect of losses on consistency was observed even when the average participant did not exhibit loss aversion. Taken together, the results indicate that losses increase the consistency of risk‐taking behavior and suggest that this is due to the effect of losses on attention. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Choosing Between Lotteries: Remarkable Coordination Without Communication

The current research examines tacit coordination behavior in a lottery selection task. Two hundred participants in each of three experiments and 100 in a fourth choose to participate in one of two lotteries, where one lottery has a larger prize than the other. Independent of variations in the complexity of the mechanism of prize allocation, the prize amounts, and whether the lottery is the participant's first or second choice, we typically find that the percentage of participants who choose the high versus low‐prize lotteries does not significantly differ from the equilibrium predictions. This coordination is achieved without communication or experience. We additionally find that participants with an analytical thinking style and a risk‐averse tendency are more likely to choose the low‐prize lottery over the high‐prize lottery. This tendency seems to be stable across choices. The pattern of our results suggests that to achieve tacit coordination, having a subset of individuals who attend to the choices of others is sufficient. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Competitive Dynamics in Forecasting: The Interaction of Skill and Uncertainty

The outcomes in many competitive tasks depend upon both skill and luck. Behavioral theories on risk taking in tournaments indicate that low‐skilled individuals may have incentives to take more risks than high‐skilled ones. We build on these theories and suggest, in addition, that when luck is more important in determining outcomes, the increase in risk taking is larger for low‐skilled than high‐skilled individuals. We test this hypothesis by analyzing stock analysts' forecasts of companies' earnings per share under market conditions that vary in volatility and thus imply different levels of luck in outcomes. Specifically, noting that forecasts that deviate widely from the consensus—which is observable by the analyst—potentially carry career‐related rewards but also reputational risks, we examine the degree of deviation from consensus exhibited by analysts of different skill levels (measured by both past forecasting accuracy and education) in different market conditions. We find that average deviations from consensus increase as markets become more volatile. At the same time, under conditions of high volatility, low‐skilled analysts exhibit larger increases in deviations from consensus than high‐skilled analysts. These field data results support our hypothesis based on of risk taking in tournaments. We discuss alternative interpretations such as, for example, self‐serving attributions and indicate directions for future research. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

How to Make Decisions in An Uncertain World: Heuristics,Biases, and Risk Perception

From the seventies onward a large quantity of theoretical and empirical studies have investigated the heuristic principles and cognitive strategies that individuals use to deal with risky and uncertain situations. This research has shown how the explicative and predictive shortcomings of normative risk analysis depend in many respects on undervaluing the continuous interaction between the individual and the environment. There are factors that, day by day, represent significant obstacles to decision making.     

Finding the right touch: extending the right-touch regulation approach to the accreditation of voluntary registers

ABSTRACT

What is ‘right-touch regulation’? In this article we explain why the Professional Standards Authority for Health and Social Care (the Authority) has focussed much of its policy work in recent times on seeking an answer to this question, and why it wants to know. We explain why the Authority's predecessor body, the Council for Healthcare Regulatory Excellence, felt there was a need to define the concept of ‘right-touch regulation’ and explore the policy environment from which it emerged, linking the idea to existing regulatory principles. We then go on to discuss how the government's policy of establishing an accreditation scheme for voluntary registers – a task which has been given to the Authority – will fit with the right-touch regulation approach.     

Digit ratio and risk taking in post-menopausal Finnish women

Although an indicator of prenatal testosterone (PT), 2D:4D ratio, has been extensively studied in the domain of financial risk taking, other domains of risk have received less attention. It is thought that elevated levels of PT relate to more masculinised behaviours, including increased risk taking propensity. In this study, we report negative findings with regards to health (average weekly drinking and daily smoking) and sexual (lifetime number of sexual partners) risk in a sample of post-menopausal Finnish women (N = 146–262). Our results suggest that PT may not masculinise health and sexual risk taking in women, at least at an older age.     

Predicting Perceived Risk of Crime: a Multilevel Study

With a sample of Italians selected from 71 Italian counties (N = 1,868), we performed two multilevel analyses aimed at predicting the perceived risk of crime at local (i.e., in the participants' county of residence) and at societal (i.e., in the context of Italian society) levels. A significant proportion of the variation in local risk perception was at the county level. The following individual variables predicted higher levels of this variable: indirect victimization, the perception of social and physical disorder, being a woman, being poorly educated, and being an older person. Among the ecological predictors, the crime rate and unemployment rate predicted higher levels of local crime risk perception, while the immigrant rate did not. Perceived risk of crime at the societal level did not show significant variation at the county level. Education, being a man, trusting people, and adhesion to post‐materialistic values predicted lower levels of societal crime risk perception, while number of sons/daughters and exposure to television news increased it. The limitations and possible development of this study are discussed.     

Emotion and reason in everyday risk perception

Although research has documented the importance of emotion in risk perception, little is known about it in the context of everyday life. Using the Experience Sampling Method (ESM), 94 part‐time students were prompted at random—via cellular telephones—to report on mood state and three emotions and to assess risk on thirty occasions during their working hours. The emotions—valence, arousal, and dominance—were measured using self‐assessment manikins (SAMs) (Bradley & Lang, 1994). Hierarchical linear models (HLM) revealed that mood state and emotions explained significant variance in risk perception. In addition, valence and arousal accounted for variance over and above “reason” (measured by severity and possibility of risks). Six risks were re‐assessed in a post‐experimental session and found to be lower than their real‐time counterparts. The study demonstrates the feasibility and value of collecting representative samples of data with simple technology. Evidence is also provided to demonstrate the statistical consistency of the HLM estimates. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.