When mixed options are preferred in multiple‐trial decisions

We report three studies showing that in prospective multiple‐trial decisions people often select a mix of sure and risky options over pure bundles of either option. Such a preference is not ‘rational’ because a mixed option cannot be the EV‐maximizing choice. Experiment 1 confirmed a mixed‐option preference for gains but not for losses. Showing a graph of the multiple‐trial outcome distribution reduced but did not eliminate this effect, suggesting that it is not due purely to a failure to aggregate correctly over the multiple trials. Experiment 2 replicated the mixed option preference using a wider range of problems. Experiment 3 compared choices in the trinary choice conditions used in Experiments 1 and 2 with binary choices between pairs of the multiple‐trial sure, mixed, and risky options. In the binary choice condition the mixed option was no longer the modal choice, suggesting that the strong mixed option preference found in the trinary choice conditions is mainly due to a compromise effect. However, the binary choice probabilities did show violations of strong stochastic transitivity in a pattern that suggested a slight bias toward the mixed option. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

品牌信任研究脉络与展望

品牌信任就是在风险情境下,消费者基于对品牌品质、行为意向及其履行承诺的能力的正面预期而产生的认可该品牌的意愿。品牌信任结构问题存在“一维”、“二维’’和“三维”之争。品牌信任与多种因素存在着互动关系。有关品牌信任的前因后果有待进行整合研究,从而探讨品牌信任对品牌绩效的作用机制。     

心理距离、封面故事对框架效应的影响

该研究旨在比较志愿决策和“亚洲疾病”决策两种任务领域下,人们风险偏好的特征情况,以考察远、近不同社会距离对风险偏好的影响.同时,在传统的坏封面故事下,增设好封面故事情景,以期发现封面故事作为决策前的必要背景信息对人们决策的影响.选取高中生为被试,结果发现：（1）在近的社会距离下决策时,风险偏好受到时间距离、封面故事、概率和框架的影响;在远的社会距离下,这些因素的影响作用不大;（2）志愿决策中,风险偏好仅在小概率条件下,受封面故事、框架等因素的影响;在好封面故事下,风险偏好受到框架的影响;在坏的封面故事下,风险偏好受时间距离和框架的交互作用影响.     

临时性组织中的快速信任：概念、形成前因及影响结果

快速信任是适应临时性组织的速成性、短期性和任务复杂性特点而形成的新的信任研究方向, 其一反传统信任对个性、人际关系和情感的关注而转向对认知、行为和角色的关注。利用快速信任能有效地管理临时性组织的脆弱性、不确定性、风险和期望问题。在介绍快速信任的概念和测量的基础上, 综述了影响快速信任形成的信任倾向、类别与原型和角色等因素, 并阐述了快速信任对团队及系统层面结果变量的影响。未来研究需对快速信任的情感成分、测量及维度划分、快速信任与领导的交互影响、快速信任下的不信任以及快速信任的动态发展方面展开深入探讨。     

UNCERTAINTY AND GOD: A JAMESIAN PRAGMATIST APPROACH TO UNCERTAINTY AND IGNORANCE IN SCIENCE AND RELIGION

This article picks up from William James's pragmatism and metaphysics of experience, as expressed in his “radical empiricism,” and further develops this Jamesian pragmatist approach to uncertainty and ignorance by connecting it to phenomenological thought. The Jamesian pragmatist approach avoids both a “crude naturalism” and an “absolutist rationalism,” and allows for identification of intimations of the sacred in both scientific and religious practices—which all, in their respective ways, try to make sense of a complex world. Analogous to religious practices, emotion and the metaphysics of experience play a central role in science, especially the emotion of wonder. Engaging in scientific or religious practices may create opportunities for individuals to realize that they are co‐creators of the world in partnership with God, in full awareness of uncertainty and ignorance and filled with the emotion of wonder.     

儿童情绪胜任力的研究进展：概念、功能与干预措施

儿童情绪胜任力是指儿童拥有情绪知识,对自身和他人的情绪进行识别和理解,并调节和表达自身情绪的一种综合能力,它在提高儿童的认知能力、促进其身心健康发展、提高社会交往能力以及减少儿童危险行为等方面都有重要作用。研究者开展了以儿童情绪和行为问题改善、压力应对能力提高及情绪识别和管理能力提升为目标的干预项目。未来可进一步探究学校、老师、同伴及儿童自身的人格特点等对其情绪胜任力发展的影响及作用机制,并可从增加个性化干预及提升干预长期效果等视角进一步完善干预措施。     

Examining the link between adolescent brain development and risk taking from a social–developmental perspective

The adolescent age period is often characterized as a health paradox because it is a time of extensive increases in physical and mental capabilities, yet overall mortality/morbidity rates increase significantly from childhood to adolescence, often due to preventable causes such as risk taking. Asynchrony in developmental time courses between the affective/approach and cognitive control brain systems, as well as the ongoing maturation of neural connectivity are thought to lead to increased vulnerability for risk taking in adolescence. A critical analysis of the frequency of risk taking behaviors, as well as mortality and morbidity rates across the lifespan, however, challenges the hypothesis that the peak of risk taking occurs in middle adolescence when the asynchrony between the different developmental time courses of the affective/approach and cognitive control systems is the largest. In fact, the highest levels of risk taking behaviors, such as alcohol and drug use, often occur among emerging adults (e.g., university/college students), and highlight the role of the social context in predicting risk taking behavior. Moreover, risk taking is not always unregulated or impulsive. Future research should broaden the scope of risk taking to include risks that are relevant to older adults, such as risky financial investing, gambling, and marital infidelity. In addition, a lifespan perspective, with a focus on how associations between neural systems and behavior are moderated by context and trait-level characteristics, and which includes diverse samples (e.g., divorced individuals), will help to address some important limitations in the adolescent brain development and risk taking literature.     

真实和虚拟金钱奖赏影响风险决策行为*

在风险情境下人类如何决策是长久以来心理学和经济学研究中一个极具挑战性的核心问题。众多研究采用真实或虚拟金钱作为奖赏强化物来探索风险决策行为的过程和机制,但对金钱奖赏真实性如何影响决策了解很少。仿真气球冒险任务(BART：Balloon Analogue Risk Task)可以在实验室条件下有效评估个体在真实社会中的风险行为。本研究采用 BART任务,通过两个实验探讨和比较了真实与虚拟金钱奖赏对风险决策行为的影响。实验一的结果发现,与虚拟金钱奖赏相比,真实金钱奖赏情境下的风险决策更容易受上一次决策结果的影响,上一次决策失败会导致被试的风险偏好水平显著降低(平均吹气球的次数显著减少),同时决策失败(气球吹爆)次数也显著减少,提示真实金钱奖赏下有更强的反馈学习效应。实验二重复了实验一的结果,并进一步发现,虚拟金钱奖赏的幅度对被试的风险决策行为没有影响,而真实金钱奖赏的幅度能显著改变被试的风险决策行为,较大幅度的真实金钱奖赏可以显著降低被试的风险偏好水平,但这种奖赏幅度对风险偏好的调控效应只对感觉寻求水平低的被试有效,感觉寻求水平高的被试不受影响。这些发现表明真实与虚拟金钱奖赏对风险决策行为有不同的影响。我们的结果可以用风险决策的后悔理论或齐当别模型来解释。     

Individuality and Contextual Influences on Drug Dependence: A 15-Year Prospective Longitudinal Study of Adolescents From Harlem

In this 15-year longitudinal study the authors investigated individual and contextual factors that predispose adolescents from a disadvantaged urban area to drug dependence in adulthood. Adolescents were recruited from schools serving East Harlem in New York City. Of the 838 participants followed to adulthood, 59% were women, 55% were African American, and 45% were Puerto Rican. Self-report data were obtained on externalizing and internalizing problems, substance use, and contextual influences across adolescence and young adulthood. Drug dependence was assessed in adulthood. Multivariate logistic regressions of drug dependence were performed on the whole sample and separately by gender. Each of the domains was associated with adult drug dependence. Although mean gender differences were found, most associations of risk factors with drug dependence did not vary significantly by gender. Treating externalizing and internalizing problems, reducing substance use, and providing coping skills for adverse contextual influences in adolescence and young adulthood may reduce the likelihood of becoming drug dependent in adulthood.     

Attitudes Toward Colonialism,Political Dependence,and Independence

Preliminary studies done by Poe on the Psychological Effectiveness Scale (PES), which he introduced, indicate that when it is administered to college students, the instrument has considerable validity and internal consistency reliability. The aim of the present study was to explore further the psychometric attributes of the PES in Ss of a different socioeconomic status. One hundred Ss on a methadone maintenance program were asked to rate themselves and two abstract concepts: “abnormal person” and “typical person.” The findings included coefficient alphas in the .90s, high average item-correlation (total minus item), and a significant difference between the means of the three ratings. These findings confirm that the PES has sufficient reliability and construct validity to justify further use.