企业新产品开发决策的不确定性和决策策略模拟实验研究

本文以企业新产品开发为决策内容,根据决策策略的规定性理论框架和先前调查所得决策案例,设计四种决策情景来代表四种不确定状态,通过５６名来自５个工厂的管理人员的现场模拟实验,着重研究这类决策的不确定性和决策策略之间关系。结果发现,在新产品开发的决策中,决策策略随不确定状态而改变;决策情景的不确定程度和决策策略没有严格的—一对应关系;在四类不确定决策情景下,都有管理人员采用混合型策略。这一发现同混合扫瞄策略观点和垃圾罐模型的思想相一致。并且,随着决策情景的不确定程度加大,决策时间逐渐延长。最后我们提出了应继续研究的课题。     

Inconsistency and uncertainty in multi-attribute judgment of human performance

This paper examines the effect of uncertainty and inconsistency on the judgment of human performance. The results indicate that the effect of inconsistency on judgment is not mediated by subjective uncertainty. We find that both the level and the extremity of judgment decrease with uncertainty. These effects are explained, respectively, by uncertainty aversion and by regressiveness. We also find that both the level and the extremity of judgment of human performance increase with inconsistency. These effects are explained by reliance on integration rules in which judgment is based primarily on some aspects of the information, while other aspects are, to some extent, ignored.     

Decision making in a dynamic situation: The effect of false alarms and time pressure

An experiment was conducted to investigate the effect of a priori probability of false alarms and time pressure on decision-making behaviour in a dynamic task environment. In order to assess whether strategy selection in a dynamic task environment would be adaptive, we modelled the task mathematically, and compared actual decision strategies to the optimal ones. In addition to the selected strategy, we also studied decision-making behaviour at a lower operational level, reflecting the amount of effort subjects are willing to spend on the decision process. Subjects were required to monitor the fitness level of a simulated athlete, who was running a race, and had to provide treatments whenever the athlete's fitness level suggested a real physiological problem. When a decline of the athlete's fitness was caused by a false alarm, a spontaneous recovery would occur after some time, without any need for intervention. Time pressure was manipulated by the rate at which the athlete's fitness level declined. Overall, subjects did not select the most efficient strategy: they dominantly selected information before applying an action, even though it would have been more profitable, and less effortful, just to apply actions. At the operational level, subjects appeared to invest less effort when the probability of false alarms increased and to invest more effort when time pressure increased. However, in contrast to the outcomes of our mathematical model, subjects adjusted the amount of intervention to the a priori probability of false alarms and not to time pressure. Together, the results indicate that the selection of a decision strategy in a dynamic task is less adaptive then is generally concluded from studies with static tasks.     

Living Under the Threat of Relocation: Spouses' Perceptions of the Threat and Coping Resources

This study examined the contribution of couples, shared perceptions of the threat of relocation, and the buffering effect of personal and marital resources in coping with stress. The study was conducted with a random sample of 95 couples in the Golan Heights region in Israel, where a unique situation exists in which families live under a threat of relocation, due to the peace negotiations between Israel and Syria. Two resources were examined: potency and marital quality Results showed that potency made the greatest contribution to coping either with demands or stress, both in couples who had similar or different future scenarios, while marital quality was found to relieve the stress only in couples who shared the same future scenarios. The average level of stress was found to be higher but not significant among couples with different future scenarios.     

注意定势及时间不确定性对基于空间的返回抑制的影响

在两个实验中使用比例控制范式 ,研究了基于空间位置的注意定势及时间不确定性对检测任务中IOR出现时程的影响。实验 1以 75名本科生为被试 ,将SOA水平作为组间变量 ,从而消除了时间不确定性。结果发现 ,当被试形成“更依赖于提示位置”的注意定势时 ,IOR出现的时程延长。实验 2以 2 2名本科生为被试 ,将SOA作为组内变量 ,从而将时间不确定性引入实验任务。结果表明 ,存在时间不确定性时 ,IOR出现的时程恢复到正常水平。两个实验的结果表明 ,IOR的时程受到内源和外源性注意之间交互作用的影响 ,而注意定势和时间不确定性是决定IOR何时出现及持续时间的两个十分关键的因素。     

Predicting the intensity of losses vs. non-gains and non-losses vs. gains in judging fairness and value: A test of the loss aversion explanation

Three studies examined the predictions that in the context of evaluation of fairness and concessions in negotiations, losses would be perceived as more intensely negative than non-gains, and that non-losses would be perceived as more positive than gains. Extant studies tested only the first of these predictions. These predictions derive from the principle of loss aversion (LA), according to which losses are experienced more intensely than gains of similar objective magnitude. In this view, losses and non-losses are measured against the steep loss part of the value curve, whereas gains and non-gains are measured against the shallow part of the value curve. Our studies replicated extant studies in confirming the first prediction but failed to confirm the second prediction. Specifically, opposite to the prediction of LA, gains were perceived as more intensely positive than non-losses. It seems, therefore, that LA is not a sufficient explanation of why losses are perceived as more averse than gains. Feature positive and regulatory focus effects are discussed as additional potential contributors to the phenomenon.     

‘Yes,we have bananas!’1

This paper takes as its starting point ‘identifying markers of Latin American psychoanalysis’. The authors see this theme as a compromise between two diverging approaches. On one hand, the conference at which the content was presented provided the opportunity for Latin American psychoanalytical thinking to be discussed and, as a reward to the best papers, to be published. On the other, both the conference and the reward are more indicative of the observer's biases than of the object's peculiarities. The authors consider that the conference mistakenly focused on the search for minor differences (secondary identifi cations) instead of looking for invariances (identities). Considering that uncertainty, pluralism and complexity are issues relevant to the whole of psychoanalysis in its current stage of development as a scientifi c discipline, the authors think that treating these elements as ‘identifying markers of Latin American psychoanalysis’ is evidence of prejudice brought about by a coloniser‐colonised relationship. To develop their argument, the authors discuss a paper on editorial criteria by Tuckett as a clinical case, and use an episode of Brazilian history as further illustration. They address issues such as conformity to cultural patterns; the search for certainties and proofs; the domination of some groups over others; and editorial power‐more specifi cally, its infl uence on the acceptance or rejection of scientifi c ideas. These issues have distracted attention away from the fundamentals of psychoanalysis by introducing other, extraneous aims. Publication plays a key role in feeding a possibly vicious circle wherein only a small proportion of scientifi c contributions manages to reach a wide audience‐exactly those contributions that conform to established patterns. The act of publication turns that portion into offi cial knowledge, while unpublished ideas become increasingly excluded.     

以兔抗鼠淋巴细胞血清为非条件刺激的条件性免疫抑制

采用一种生物类免疫抑制剂-兔抗鼠淋巴血清（rabbit anti-rat lymphocyte serum,ALS）为非条件刺激（UCS）,糖精水为条件刺激（CS）,以双瓶给水法置于鼠笼前端饮用偏好侧。在一次性CS-UCS结合训练后,单独再次给予CS,使卵清蛋白（OVA）免疫过的大鼠表现出脾淋巴细胞对有丝分裂原PWM的增殖反应降低,血抗OVA抗体的总量及脾内抗OVA抗体生成细胞的减少,但动物未表现出条件性味觉厌恶的行为反应。这些结果表明条件性免疫抑制与味觉厌恶行为条件反射没有必然联系,并非是厌恶行为反应或情绪应激的伴随产物。UCS也并非必需具有感觉的毒副作用,条件性免疫抑制是脑高级神经活动调节免疫功能的结果。     

行为决策中的默认效应

默认效应指的是当存在默认选项时, 人们决策时倾向于保留默认选项而不做出改变的一种现象。这种现象广泛存在于器官捐献政策、退休金储蓄计划和消费决策等领域并在这些领域中有巨大的应用价值。目前, 研究者主要从损失规避、质询理论、暗含的推荐和神经心理机制四个方面解释默认效应的形成机制。默认效应还受到努力成本、默认选项的框架和个人经验等因素影响。未来的研究可以从深入探讨默认效应的产生根源、加强其跨文化研究以及拓展其应用领域这三个方面来展开。     

Can ingroup affirmation relieve outgroup derogation?

Intergroup hostilities are an important social concern in multicultural societies and the global community. Individuals with dispositionally high Personal Need for Structure (PNS) are particularly inclined toward outgroup derogation [Schaller, M., Boyd, C., Yohannes, J., O’Brien, M. (1995). The prejudiced personality revisited: Personal need for structure and formation of erroneous group stereotypes. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 68, 544-555]. The present research demonstrates that ingroup affirmation can eliminate high PNS individuals’ tendency toward outgroup derogation. Spontaneous (Study 1) and experimentally manipulated affirmations (Study 2) of consensual, positive ingroups eliminated the high PNS tendency to derogate outgroup targets. Study 3 experimentally manipulated the two key elements that are presumably bolstered by ingroup affirmations—self-certainty and self-worth—independent of the group context. The high PNS tendency to derogate outgroups was relieved only in the combined certainty and worth affirmation condition, just as it had been relieved in Study 2 by the ingroup affirmation. Results suggest a paradoxical strategy for relieving derogation of outgroups by affirming ingroups.