Decision making in a dynamic situation: The effect of false alarms and time pressure

An experiment was conducted to investigate the effect of a priori probability of false alarms and time pressure on decision-making behaviour in a dynamic task environment. In order to assess whether strategy selection in a dynamic task environment would be adaptive, we modelled the task mathematically, and compared actual decision strategies to the optimal ones. In addition to the selected strategy, we also studied decision-making behaviour at a lower operational level, reflecting the amount of effort subjects are willing to spend on the decision process. Subjects were required to monitor the fitness level of a simulated athlete, who was running a race, and had to provide treatments whenever the athlete's fitness level suggested a real physiological problem. When a decline of the athlete's fitness was caused by a false alarm, a spontaneous recovery would occur after some time, without any need for intervention. Time pressure was manipulated by the rate at which the athlete's fitness level declined. Overall, subjects did not select the most efficient strategy: they dominantly selected information before applying an action, even though it would have been more profitable, and less effortful, just to apply actions. At the operational level, subjects appeared to invest less effort when the probability of false alarms increased and to invest more effort when time pressure increased. However, in contrast to the outcomes of our mathematical model, subjects adjusted the amount of intervention to the a priori probability of false alarms and not to time pressure. Together, the results indicate that the selection of a decision strategy in a dynamic task is less adaptive then is generally concluded from studies with static tasks.     

Rational Illogicality

Many accounts of structural rationality give a special role to logic. This paper reviews the problem case of clear-eyed logical uncertainty. An account of rational norms on belief that does not give a special role to logic is developed: doxastic probabilism.     

Gift Giving at Israeli Weddings as a Function of Genetic Relatedness and Kinship Certainty

This study examines gift giving at Israeli weddings. In accordance with kin selection theory, we hypothesized that wedding guests possessing greater genetic relatedness to the newlyweds would offer greater sums of money as wedding gifts. We also hypothesized that family members stemming from the maternal side (where the genetic lineage has higher kinship certainty) would offer the newlyweds more money than those stemming from the paternal side. Data on the monetary gift sums of the wedding guests from 30 weddings were collapsed according to two criteria: (a) genetic relatedness (0%, 6.25%, 12.5%, 25%, and 50%) and (b) kinship certainty (maternal or paternal lineage). Both hypotheses were supported. We discuss the implications of these data in understanding family dynamics, as well as practical applications associated with the marketing of gifts.     

Addicted to answers: Need for cognitive closure and the endorsement of conspiracy beliefs

Conspiracy theories offer simple answers to complex problems by providing explanations for uncertain situations. Thus, they should be attractive to individuals who are intolerant of uncertainty and seek cognitive closure. We hypothesized that need for cognitive closure (NFCC) should foster conspiracy beliefs about events that lack clear official explanations, especially when conspiracy theories are temporarily salient. In Experiment 1, NFCC positively predicted the endorsement of a conspiracy theory behind the refugee crisis, especially when conspiratorial explanations were made salient. Experiment 2 showed that when conspiratorial explanations were made salient, NFCC positively predicted beliefs in conspiracies behind a mysterious plane crash. However, the link between NFCC and beliefs in conspiratorial explanations was reversed in the case of a plane crash with an official, non‐conspiratorial, explanation for the accident. In conclusion, people high (vs. low) in NFCC seize on conspiratorial explanations for uncertain events when such explanations are situationally accessible.     

The Association Between the Attitude of Food‐Waste‐Aversion and BMI: An Exploration in India and the United States

This research proposes the existence of a hitherto undocumented attitude related to food wastage: the attitude of food‐waste‐aversion. We develop a 6‐item scale including affective, cognitive, and conative components to measure this attitude and empirically investigate its properties in two countries using novel datasets. We test for food‐waste‐aversion scale's convergent validity by demonstrating that it is correlated in the expected direction with five theoretically related constructs—frugality, social responsibility, spendthriftness, self‐control, and materialism (Studies 1a and 1b)—and with BMI (Studies 2 and 3). We provide more indirect evidence of the scale's convergent validity by documenting that the link between food‐waste‐aversion and BMI is attenuated among those who practice refrigerating leftovers (Study 3). We also document that the food‐waste‐aversion scale is distinct from general waste aversion and external meal‐cessation rules, thus providing evidence of discriminant validity (Studies 1a, 1b, and 1c). Taken together, these results provide construct validity for the novel construct of food‐waste‐aversion. We discuss the theoretical and substantive contributions of our findings.     

员工感知被信任影响工作投入的心理机制：维度差异及理论比较

领导－员工之间的信任是工作场所中宝贵的资源,但有关领导对员工的信任及其作用机制的研究相对缺乏。以423名企业员工为被试,通过问卷调查法从被信任方角度考察了员工感知被信任对工作投入的影响及其机制,并比较了三种主导解释理论的相对有效性。结果显示：感知被信任与工作投入正相关,但其具体作用机制有赖于感知被信任的不同维度;相对于不确定管理理论和认知评估理论,社会交换理论更能有效解释感知被信任与工作投入的关系。     

Ontological Security and Public (Mis)Recognition of International Crises: Uncertainty,Political Imagining,and the Self

Public narratives of unexpected international events frequently help (re)imagine uncertainty as something familiar or predictable. This process underlies social and political responses and is deeply significant in relation to identity and boundary security. I propose to read early perceptions of international crises through a reformulation of ontological security principles that find motivation for behavior in self‐identity needs. Political imagining is shown to seek continuous self‐concepts and to routinize new encounters within familiar and self‐affirming frames. This article suggests a new approach to ontological continuity: instead of an unchanging narrative, its security may rest in a continuously positive version of the self, with narratives of others balancing and securing the relationship. In the second half of the article, I draw on interviews about the “Arab Spring” to show how illusions of recognizing unexpected events and the political imagining this produces can be motivated by self‐concepts in need of security.     

Do episodic self- and partner-uncertainty mediate the association between attachment orientations and emotional responses to relationship-threatening events in dating couples?

This study examined relational-uncertainty perceptions (a form of cognitive appraisal) to investigate how partners in 272 heterosexual couples responded emotionally to a relationship-challenging event. Participants rated themselves on attachment anxiety and avoidance. Then, after listing a challenging event, they rated how uncertain it made them about their own and their partner's continued involvement in the relationship. Participants also rated how angry and fearful the event made them. An Actor-Partner Interdependence Model yielded three sets of results. First, actor effects from insecure attachment orientations to episodic relational uncertainty emerged. Second, proposed mediation between attachment orientations and emotional reactions by uncertainty was partially supported (perceived partner-uncertainty partially mediated the positive association of anxious attachment and fear, and self-uncertainty partially mediated the positive relation between avoidant attachment and anger). Finally, a partner effect was found between one couple member's avoidant attachment and the other's perceived partner uncertainty. Men and women exhibited similar findings.     

人格特质对考试焦虑的影响:多重中介效应分析

目的:探讨自尊、惧怕负面评价及无法忍受不确定性在人格特质和考试焦虑间的中介作用。方法:采用人格问卷简式量表EPQ-RSC、Rosenberg自尊问卷、惧怕负面评价量表简表、无法忍受不确定性量表和考试焦虑量表测量410名在校高中生和大学生。结果:(1)相关分析表明,神经质、惧怕负面评价、无法忍受不确定性及考试焦虑之间彼此正相关显著;外向性与自尊正相关显著,与惧怕负面评价、无法忍受不确定性及考试焦虑等负相关显著;精神质与自尊、惧怕负面评价及考试焦虑等负相关显著;自尊与神经质、惧怕负面评价、无法忍受不确定性及考试焦虑负相关显著。(2)回归分析表明,人格特质中的神经质和精神质能显著预测考试焦虑,无法忍受不确定性在人格特质和考试焦虑之间起部分中介作用;结构方程模型分析结果显示,人格特质中神经质和精神质对考试焦虑的直接效应显著,经由自尊、惧怕负面评价和无法忍受不确定性对考试焦虑的间接效应也极为显著。结论:自尊、惧怕负面评价和无法忍受不确定性在人格特质与考试焦虑间起着中介作用。     

Measurement scales and scale independence in the analytic hierarchy process

One approach to evaluate the relative performance of decision alternatives with respect to multiple criteria is provided by the analytic hierarchy process. The method is based on pairwise comparisons between attributes, and several numerical measurement scales for the ratio statements have been proposed. The choice of measurement scale is re‐examined, and new arguments supporting the measurement scale of geometric progression are derived. Separately from the measurement scale considerations, the effects of the scale parameter in geometric measurement scale are also studied. By using a regression model for pairwise comparisons data, it is shown that the statistical inference does not depend on the value of the scale parameter in the case of a single pairwise comparison matrix. It is also shown when the scale independence of statistical inference can be achieved in a decision hierarchy. This requires the use of the geometric‐mean aggregation rule instead of the traditional arithmetic‐mean aggregation. The results of the case study demonstrate that the measurement scale and the aggregation rule have potentially large impacts on decision support. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.