金钱激励在社会排斥影响不确定性决策中的调节作用

研究从金钱补偿的视角考察社会排斥对不确定性决策的影响以及金钱激励的调节作用。实验发现,有金钱激励时,被排斥者在爱荷华赌博任务(Iowa gambling task,IGT)中的行为分数(组块2和3的选牌净分数和总的盈利分数)显著高于社会接纳者,表现为风险规避; 在无金钱激励时,被排斥者在IGT任务中的行为分数(组块4和5的选牌净分数和总的盈利分数)显著低于被接纳者,表现为风险寻求。实验结果表明社会排斥对不确定性决策的影响受到金钱激励的调制。     

Enhancing Inhibitory Learning: The Utility of Variability in Exposure

Exposure therapy has strong empirical support as a treatment for anxiety and related disorders, yet not all participants see clinically meaningful reduction in symptoms, and some experience return of fear. In this review, we examine the theoretical models of exposure therapy, from early precursors to the contemporary inhibitory learning model. The inhibitory learning model is applied to examine one potential method of improving outcomes in exposure therapy: increasing variability in the progression of the exposure hierarchy. We explore mechanisms that support the use of variability in exposure, including the violation of expectancies to enhance learning. In addition, the role of intolerance of uncertainty in anxiety is examined; variable exposure therapy could target this transdiagnostic mechanism in anxiety and related disorders. Suggestions for future research are then offered.     

Depictions of acne and psoriasis influence interpersonal aversion

The presence of a dermatological condition may deter contact with the affected person because it falsely signals the threat of infection. The current study investigated interpersonal aversion towards individuals with the appearance of acne and psoriasis. Participants (N = 196) either viewed a female face with the appearance of acne, psoriasis, or no visible dermatological condition. Participants rated the attractiveness of the person, and indicated their willingness for social and indirect contact with them. The person depicted with acne was rated significantly less attractive than the person with psoriasis or no dermatological condition. Participants reported significantly less willingness for indirect contact with the person depicted with acne or psoriasis compared to the person with no visible dermatological condition. In contrast, participants expressed more willingness for social contact with a person with acne than with the person with psoriasis or no dermatological condition. Group differences were significant when controlling for attractiveness ratings. Unwarranted fear of infection might underpin avoidance and discriminatory behaviour towards those with skin conditions. Further research is required to understand factors that influence avoidance of contact.     

Look before you leap: the role of negative urgency in appraisals of ambiguous and unambiguous scenarios in individuals high in generalized anxiety disorder symptoms

Negative interpretation bias, the propensity to make threatening interpretations of ambiguous information, is associated with symptoms of generalized anxiety disorder (GAD). Apart from its relationship with intolerance of uncertainty (IU), little is known about what explains the presence of this cognitive bias in GAD. One factor may be negative urgency (NU), the tendency to take rash action when distressed, which is related to GAD symptoms and to cognitive biases in nonclinical populations. The aim of the present study was to examine the relationship between NU and interpretation bias in individuals high in GAD symptoms (N = 111). IU, trait anxiety, and other forms of impulsivity were examined concurrently as competing correlates of interpretation bias. Greater NU and IU were found to be unique correlates of greater threatening interpretations of ambiguous scenarios. Greater NU was also a unique correlate of greater threatening interpretations of negative and positive scenarios. No other forms of impulsivity were uniquely related to interpretation bias. The findings suggest that greater NU may have a role in the tendency for individuals high in GAD symptoms to make threatening interpretations in response to ambiguous scenarios, overtly threatening situations, and situations without indication of threat or danger. Theoretical implications of these findings are discussed.     

Eliciting Subjective Probabilities through Pair‐wise Comparisons

We propose and test a novel approach for eliciting subjective joint probabilities. In the proposed approach, judges compare pairs of possible outcomes and identify which of the two is more likely and by how much. These pair‐wise comparative judgments create a matrix of ratio judgments from which the target probabilities are extracted using the rows' (or columns') geometric means. In Study 1, subjects provided direct assessments of the likelihood of joint events (e.g., sunny days and stock market gains) and also made pair‐wise comparisons of the same joint events. Subjects in Study 2 learnt the distribution of hypothetical events pairs and provided direct and ratio estimates. In both studies, the ratio estimates were significantly more accurate than the direct estimates. The results suggest that it is possible to elicit probabilistic estimates without explictly asking for probabilities and that the pair‐wise approach is a candidate for complementing or replacing traditional elicitation approaches. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Probabilities Associated with Precise and Vague Forecasts

Forecasts of future outcomes, such as the consequences of climate change, are given with different degrees of precision. Logically, more precise forecasts (e.g., a temperature increase of 3–4°) have a smaller probability of capturing the actual outcome than less precise forecasts (e.g., a temperature increase of 2–6°). Nevertheless, people often trust precise forecasts more than vague forecasts, perhaps because precision is associated with knowledge and expertise. In five experiments, we ask whether people expect highly confident forecasts to be associated with wider or narrower outcome ranges than less confident forecasts (Experiments 1, 2, and 5), and, conversely, whether they expect precise forecasts to be issued with higher or lower confidence than vague forecasts (Experiments 3 and 4). The results revealed two distinct ways of thinking about confidence intervals, labeled distributional (wide intervals seen as more probable than narrow intervals) and associative (wide intervals seen as more uncertain than narrow intervals). Distributional responses occurred somewhat more often in within‐subjects designs, where wide and narrow prediction intervals and high and low probability estimates can be directly compared, whereas separate evaluations (in between‐subjects design) suggested associative responses to be slightly more frequent. These findings are relevant for experts communicating forecasts through confidence intervals. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Impact of Culture on Loss Aversion

Based on the literature on the relationship between culture, emotion, and loss aversion, we derive that culture can influence the degree of loss aversion. To test our hypotheses, we conduct a standardized survey in 53 countries worldwide that includes the questions from the Hofstede survey on cultural dimensions as well as lottery questions on loss aversion. The results show that individualism, power distance, and masculinity increase loss aversion as predicted, whereas the impact of uncertainty avoidance is less significant. Moreover, we also find a relation between the distribution of major religions in a country and loss aversion. In comparison, the connection of loss aversion to macroeconomic variables seems to be much smaller. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Are epistemic emotions metacognitive?

This article addresses the question whether epistemic emotions (such as surprise, curiosity, uncertainty, and feelings of knowing) are in any sense inherently metacognitive. The paper begins with some critical discussion of a recent suggestion made by Joelle Proust, that these emotions might be implicitly or procedurally metacognitive. It then explores the theoretical resources that are needed to explain how such emotions arise and do their work. While there is a perennial temptation to think that epistemic emotions are somehow about the cognitive states of the person undergoing the emotion, we will see that such views can and should be resisted.     

Disgust as embodied loss aversion

A quickly expanding literature has examined the link between physical disgust and morality. This article critically integrates the existing evidence and draws the following conclusions: First, there is considerable evidence that experimentally induced disgust and cleanliness influence moral judgment, but moderating variables and attributional processes need to be considered. Second, moral considerations have substantial effects on behavioural concomitants of disgust, such as facial expressions, economic games and food consumption. Third, while disgust involves a conservation concern, it can manifest itself in both liberal and conservative political attitudes. Overall, disgust can be considered to form part of a behavioural loss aversion system aimed at protecting valuable resources, including the integrity of one’s body. Recommendations are offered to investigate the role of disgust more rigorously in order to fully capture its role in moral life.     

Better understanding the perceptions of organizational politics: its impact under different types of work unit structure

Research has uncovered inconsistent results regarding the influence of the perceptions of organizational politics (POP) on employee job performance, suggesting the existence of boundary conditions for such an influence. Drawing from uncertainty management theory, we investigated the interaction effect of POP and work unit structure on job performance, and examined the mediating role of taking charge. We tested the theoretical model with data gathered across three phases over 6 months from 577 individuals and their supervisors in 133 work units. Results showed that when the unit operated an organic structure, POP was significantly negatively related to job performance. In contrast, results demonstrated that when the unit operated a mechanistic structure, POP was significantly positively related to job performance. Furthermore, the results of the mediated moderation analysis revealed that POP was negatively associated with job performance through taking charge in an organic structure, and the indirect effect disappeared in a mechanistic structure.