When negative evidence increases confidence: change in belief after hearing two sides of a dispute

Four experiments examined change in confidence after hearing two sides of a dispute. The results showed that a case independently judged to weakly support one side often increased confidence that the opposing side was correct. Furthermore, the stronger the first case, the more likely a subsequent weak case had a reverse impact. Traditional belief‐updating models, which tend to focus on change in belief after individual pieces of evidence rather than entire cases, cannot account for these results, and a model that can account for them is introduced. In the new model, case strength is evaluated with respect to a relatively demanding (and malleable) reference point. A weak case can fall below this demanding reference point, resulting in a reverse impact on confidence. Cases must exceed relatively high strength thresholds in order to have their intended impact because they are expected to be biased summaries of evidence. When it is clear that a weak case is unbiased, it affects confidence in the intended direction. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

不同模糊程度下模糊决策的决策偏好

该研究采用艾尔斯伯格悖论的变式,选取二择一的迫选任务,旨在探讨不同球数和不同模糊程度下模糊决策的决策偏好。结果发现,球数的不同对决策的偏好基本上没有影响;而模糊程度的不同,对决策的偏好有影响。具体表现为：模糊程度较高时,被试倾向于模糊厌恶,模糊程度较低时倾向于模糊寻求。     

Inactivation of the basolateral amygdala impairs the retrieval of recent and remote taste-potentiated odor aversion memory

Memory reorganization as a time-dependent process can be investigated using various learning tasks such as the taste-potentiated odor aversion (TPOA). In this paradigm rats acquire a strong aversion to an olfactory cue presented simultaneously with a gustatory cue. Together these cues are paired with a delayed visceral illness. The basolateral amygdaloid nucleus (BLA) plays a key role in TPOA acquisition but its involvement in retrieval remains unclear. We investigated the involvement of the BLA in either recent or remote retrieval of TPOA. In each case, the number of licks observed in response to the presentation of either the odor or the taste was used to assess retrieval. Before the retrieval test, rats received a bilateral infusion of lidocaine to inactivate the BLA. We observed that both recent and remote TPOA retrieval tests induced by the odor presentation were disrupted in the lidocaine-injected rats. By contrast, the BLA inactivation had no effect upon the aversion towards the taste cue regardless of the time of retrieval. The present study provides evidence that BLA functioning is necessary for retrieval of aversive odor memory, even with a long post-acquisition delay.     

Myopic regret avoidance: Feedback avoidance and learning in repeated decision making

Decision makers can become trapped by myopic regret avoidance in which rejecting feedback to avoid short-term outcome regret (regret associated with counterfactual outcome comparisons) leads to reduced learning and greater long-term regret over continuing poor decisions. In a series of laboratory experiments involving repeated choices among uncertain monetary prospects, participants primed with outcome regret tended to decline feedback, learned the task slowly or not at all, and performed poorly. This pattern was reversed when decision makers were primed with self-blame regret (regret over an unjustified decision). Further, in a final experiment in which task learning was unnecessary, feedback was more often rejected in the self-blame regret condition than in the outcome regret condition. We discuss the findings in terms of a distinction between two regret components, one associated with outcome evaluation, the other with the justifiability of the decision process used in making the choice.     

Similar Processes Despite Divergent Behavior in Two Commonly Used Measures of Risky Decision Making

Performance on complex decision-making tasks may depend on a multitude of processes. Two such tasks, the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) and Balloon Analog Risk Task (BART), are of particular interest because they are associated with real world risky behavior, including illegal drug use. We used cognitive models to disentangle underlying processes in both tasks. Whereas behavioral measures from the IGT and BART were uncorrelated, cognitive models revealed two reliable cross-task associations. Results suggest that the tasks similarly measure loss aversion and decision-consistency processes, but not necessarily the same learning process. Additionally, substance-using individuals (and especially stimulant users) performed worse on the IGT than healthy controls did, and this pattern could be explained by reduced decision consistency.     

Generating items during testing: Psychometric issues and models

On-line item generation is becoming increasingly feasible for many cognitive tests. Item generation seemingly conflicts with the well established principle of measuring persons from items with known psychometric properties. This paper examines psychometric principles and models required for measurement from on-line item generation. Three psychometric issues are elaborated for item generation. First, design principles to generate items are considered. A cognitive design system approach is elaborated and then illustrated with an application to a test of abstract reasoning. Second, psychometric models for calibrating generating principles, rather than specific items, are required. Existing item response theory (IRT) models are reviewed and a new IRT model that includes the impact on item discrimination, as well as difficulty, is developed. Third, the impact of item parameter uncertainty on person estimates is considered. Results from both fixed content and adaptive testing are presented.This article is based on the Presidential Address Susan E. Embretson gave on June 26, 1999 at the 1999 Annual Meeting of the Psychometric Society held at the University of Kansas in Lawrence, Kansas. —Editor     

Enhancement of conditioned reinforcement by uncertainty

Pigeons were trained in three conditions. In the baseline condition, the birds responded on a fixed-interval schedule with the response key white. When the interval was completed, the key turned either red or green for a delay interval that was terminated by a grain presentation dependent on no key pecks during the final 2 sec. In the uncertainty condition, no grain was presented at the end of the delay periods when the key was red. In the certainty condition, the white light appeared only on occasions when pecking would turn the key green and produce food. Otherwise, the key was illuminated red throughout the total time period. The highest response rate in white occurred in the uncertainty condition, the next highest in the certainty condition, and the lowest in baseline. The results suggest that uncertainty facilitated responding, although uncertainty is not a necessary condition for conditioned reinforcement.     

Uncertainty reduction, conditioned reinforcement, and observing

In a concurrent-chains procedure, pigeons chose between equivalent mixed and multiple fixed-interval schedules of reinforcement. In the first experiment, preference for the multiple schedule was higher when the probability of the shorter fixed interval was less than .50 than for complementary points, an outcome consistent with the delay-reduction hypothesis of conditioned reinforcement and observing, but inconsistent with the uncertainty-reduction hypothesis which requires symmetrical preferences with a maximum when the two intervals are equiprobable. A second experiment assessed preference for equivalent mixed and multiple schedules when each choice outcome resulted in two reinforcements, one on the longer and one on the shorter fixed interval. The order of the two fixed intervals was determined probabilistically. Pigeons again preferred multiple to mixed schedules, although multiple-schedule preference did not vary systematically with the likelihood of the shorter fixed interval occurring first. The results from these choice procedures are consistent with those from the observing-response literature in suggesting that the strength of a stimulus cannot be well described as a function of the degree of uncertainty reduction the stimulus provides about reinforcement.     

Neonatal imitation, gaze aversion, and mother-infant interaction

A relationship between elicited imitation in neonates and social interaction has been proposed by several investigators. The present work examines if such a relationship can be found when studying neonatal imitation, gaze aversion, and mother-infant interaction. Thirty-two infants were observed at 2 to 3 days, 3 weeks, and 3 months of age. Imitation of tongue protrusion and mouth opening was assessed in all three observations. In addition, a face-to-face interaction between mother and child was included when the child reached 3 months of age. The most striking result was a negative relationship between the infants' brief gaze aversion observed at 3 months of age while interacting with their mothers and the infants' imitative reactions at 2 to 3 days, 3 weeks, and 3 months of age. Behaviorally, these patterns indicate that high-imitating infants tend to display fewer episodes of brief gaze aversion when interacting with their mothers.     

The Aggregated Extremes Effect: Not All Routes to “Balanced” Bundles are Equally Appealing

Prior research establishes that consumers are averse to extreme options, but what does a “moderate” option look like in the context of choices among bundles of items, such as investment portfolios or product assortment packs? We propose that for bundles, two paths to creating risk and reward balance exist: a “bundle‐of‐pure‐moderation” with all moderate‐risk–moderate‐reward (moderate RR) components and a “bundle‐of‐extremes,” composed of equal numbers of extreme high‐risk–high‐reward (high RR) and low‐risk–low‐reward (low RR) components. We show that consumers have stronger preference for the balanced bundle when composed of a bundle‐of‐extremes rather than a bundle‐of‐pure‐moderation, even when equated on expected value, a phenomenon we term “the aggregated extremes effect.” This effect occurs across different choice set configurations and across multiple domains. Additionally, this effect is eliminated among consumers who view the high RR and low RR components as incompatible, as this undermines the perceived attractiveness of the bundle‐of‐extremes. Finally, this effect is also eliminated by exposing consumers to a depiction of potential outcomes, such that consumers can better perceive the risk reduction upside of a bundle‐of‐pure‐moderation.