First-Order Learning Models With the GDINA: Estimation With the EM Algorithm and Applications

In learning environments, understanding the longitudinal path of learning is one of the main goals. Cognitive diagnostic models (CDMs) for measurement combined with a transition model for mastery may be beneficial for providing fine-grained information about students’ knowledge profiles over time. An efficient algorithm to estimate model parameters would augment the practicality of this combination. In this study, the Expectation–Maximization (EM) algorithm is presented for the estimation of student learning trajectories with the GDINA (generalized deterministic inputs, noisy, “and” gate) and some of its submodels for the measurement component, and a first-order Markov model for learning transitions is implemented. A simulation study is conducted to investigate the efficiency of the algorithm in estimation accuracy of student and model parameters under several factors—sample size, number of attributes, number of time points in a test, and complexity of the measurement model. Attribute- and vector-level agreement rates as well as the root mean square error rates of the model parameters are investigated. In addition, the computer run times for converging are recorded. The result shows that for a majority of the conditions, the accuracy rates of the parameters are quite promising in conjunction with relatively short computation times. Only for the conditions with relatively low sample sizes and high numbers of attributes, the computation time increases with a reduction parameter recovery rate. An application using spatial reasoning data is given. Based on the Bayesian information criterion (BIC), the model fit analysis shows that the DINA (deterministic inputs, noisy, “and” gate) model is preferable to the GDINA with these data.     

机器学习在抑郁症领域的应用

抑郁症患者疾病意识的不足以及早期筛查方法的缺乏导致患者在被诊断时大多已发展至重性抑郁障碍。为改善现状, 近年来机器学习被逐渐应用到抑郁症的早期预测、早期识别、辅助诊断和治疗决策中。在应用中, 机器学习模型准确性的影响因素包括样本集种类及规模、特征工程、算法类型等。建议未来将机器学习进一步融入医疗健康系统及移动应用程序等, 不断优化机器学习模型, 通过充分挖掘患者健康数据来改善抑郁症的预防、识别、诊断和治疗等相关问题。     

Preference for human or algorithmic forecasting advice does not predict if and how it is used

Past research has found that people treat advice differently depending on its source. In many cases, people seem to prefer human advice to algorithms, but in others, there is a reversal, and people seem to prefer algorithmic advice. Across two studies, we examine the persuasiveness of, and judges' preferences for, advice from different sources when forecasting geopolitical events. We find that judges report domain-specific preferences, preferring human advice in the domain of politics and algorithmic advice in the domain of economics. In Study 2, participants report a preference for hybrid advice, that combines human and algorithmic sources, to either one on it's own regardless of domain. More importantly, we find that these preferences did not affect persuasiveness of advice from these different sources, regardless of domain. Judges were primarily sensitive to quantitative features pertaining to the similarity between their initial beliefs and the advice they were offered, such as the distance between them and the relative advisor confidence, when deciding whether to revise their initial beliefs in light of advice, rather than the source that generated the advice.     

Exploratory analysis of contingency tables by loglinear formulation and generalizations of correspondence analysis

Goodman's (1979, 1981, 1985) loglinear formulation for bi-way contingency tables is extended to tables with or without missing cells and is used for exploratory purposes. A similar formulation is done for three-way tables and generalizations of correspondence analysis are deduced. A generalized version of Goodman's algorithm, based on Newton's elementary unidimensional method is used to estimate the scores in all cases.This research was partially supported by National Science and Engineering Research Council of Canada, Grant No. A8724. The author is grateful to the reviewers and the editor for helpful comments.     

卡方自动交叉检验在人群细分中的应用

卡方自动交叉检验（CHi-squaredAutomaticInteractionDetector,CHAID）是一种定性的统计分类技术,主要解决根据一个因变量的不同反应确定若干预测变量的特征问题。这种算法模型可广泛应用于社会调查和市场细分中,根据不同的目的细分人群。该文主要介绍了CHAID算法模型的概念和发展,理论基础和应用过程,以及其效度检验方法,并将其与Logit模型等作了比较,指出其优势和局限。最后提出了研究展望     

Principals versus osmod: A comment on saito and otsu

Saito and Otsu (1988) compared their OSMOD method of nonmetric principal-component analysis to an early and incorrect implementation of the PRINCIPALS algorithm of Young, Takane, and de Leeuw (1978). In this comment we present results from the current, correct implementations of the algorithm.     

Marginal maximum likelihood estimation of item parameters: Application of an EM algorithm

Maximum likelihood estimation of item parameters in the marginal distribution, integrating over the distribution of ability, becomes practical when computing procedures based on an EM algorithm are used. By characterizing the ability distribution empirically, arbitrary assumptions about its form are avoided. The Em procedure is shown to apply to general item-response models lacking simple sufficient statistics for ability. This includes models with more than one latent dimension.Supported in part by NSF grant BNS 7912417 to the University of Chicago and by SSRC (UK) grant HR6132 to the University of Lancaster.We are indebted to Mark Reiser and Robert Gibbons for computer programming. David Thissen clarified a number of points in an earlier draft.     

汉语句子格角色分配的一种神经网络方法

提出了一个基于分布式表征的计算模型,通过并行分布加工方式完成六类汉语句子的格角色分配任务。模型是一个四层的前传网络,包括输入层（词的分布式表征层）,两个隐层,输出层（格角色层）;其中第一隐层的一部分反馈到输入层。模型采用误差反传算法,通过提供学习样本和目标输出,不断调整三个权值矩阵,使得网络稳定时能得到正确的结果。经过训练后的网络具有一定的稳定性和鲁棒性。还对这种方法与传统的符号处理方法作了比较和分析。     

Equipercentile equating via data-imputation techniques

In the design of common-item equating, two groups of examinees are administered separate test forms, and each test form contains a common subset of items. We consider test equating under this situation as an incomplete data problem—that is, examinees have observed scores on one test form and missing scores on the other. Through the use of statistical data-imputation techniques, the missing scores can be replaced by reasonable estimates, and consequently the forms may be directly equated as if both forms were administered to both groups. In this paper we discuss different data-imputation techniques that are useful for equipercentile equating; we also use empirical data to evaluate the accuracy of these techniques as compared with chained equipercentile equating.A paper presented at the European Meeting of the Psychometric Society, Barcelona, Spain, July, 1993.     

A Bayesian approach to nonlinear latent variable models using the Gibbs sampler and the metropolis-hastings algorithm

Nonlinear latent variable models are specified that include quadratic forms and interactions of latent regressor variables as special cases. To estimate the parameters, the models are put in a Bayesian framework with conjugate priors for the parameters. The posterior distributions of the parameters and the latent variables are estimated using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods such as the Gibbs sampler and the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. The proposed estimation methods are illustrated by two simulation studies and by the estimation of a non-linear model for the dependence of performance on task complexity and goal specificity using empirical data.