Perception of randomness and predicting uncertain events

Using randomly generated sequences of binary events we asked participants to make predictions about the next event. It turned out that while predicting uncertain events, people do not behave unsystematically. Our research identifies four types of relatively consistent strategies for predicting uncertain binary events: a strategy immune to short-run sequential dependencies consisting of the persistent prediction of long-run majority events, hereafter called the long-run momentum strategy; a strategy immune to short-run sequential dependencies consisting of the persistent prediction of long-run minority events, called the long-run contrarian strategy; a strategy sensitive to short-run sequential dependencies consisting of the prediction of short-run majority events, called the short-run momentum strategy; and a strategy sensitive to short-run sequential dependencies consisting of the prediction of short-run minority events, called the short-run contrarian strategy. When the character of events remains unknown, the most common strategy is the short-run momentum strategy. With the increase of a perceived randomness of the situation, people tend more often to use the short-run contrarian strategy. People differ in their general beliefs about the continuation or reversal of a trend in various natural and social processes. Trend believers, when facing sequences of binary events commonly perceived as random, tend to use momentum strategies, whereas those who believe in the trend's reversal tend to use contrarian strategies.     

Explaining the gambler's fallacy: Testing a gestalt explanation versus the “law of small numbers”

The present study tests a gestalt (closure) explanation for the gambler's fallacy which posits that runs in random events will be expected to reverse only when the run is open or ongoing. This is contrasted with the law of small numbers explanation suggesting that people expect random outcomes to balance out generally. Sixty-one university students placed hypothetical guesses and bets on a series of coin tosses. Either heads or tails were dominant (8 versus 4). In a closed run condition the run ended prior to the critical trial (e.g., HHHT), and in an open run condition the run remained open (e.g., THHH). As hypothesised, participants showed the gambler's fallacy in the open run condition, but not in the closed run condition. This difference is not due to differential memory for the outcomes. Men, and people with more previous experience gambling, were also found to be more prone to the gambler's fallacy. It is argued that the gestalt explanation best explains the results.     

Sympathetic magic and perceptions of randomness: The hot hand versus the gambler's fallacy

The gambler's fallacy and hot hand were studied in predictions about outcomes of coin tosses. A critical trial occurred when participants made predictions after a “run” of four heads or tails. Participants' attention was manipulated to focus on the person flipping the coin, the coin, or neither (control group) as a possible cause of the run. We also manipulated whether or not there was a change in who tossed the coin. In the control condition the standard reversal was observed (gambler's fallacy); however, when participants focused on the person, and it was that same person who conducted the run and critical coin toss, more people chose in the direction of continuation (hot hand). Directing attention to the person tossing the run seemed to prompt participants to behave as if that individual was “hot” in terms of getting a specific outcome (e.g., heads), as if by sympathetic magic, thus eliminating the gambler's fallacy.     

Index to Volume 119

This longitudinal study focused on the causal relationships between self-concept, locus of causality, and academic achievement. The subjects were 212 male and 213 female students at a prestigious secondary school in the central Philippines. Analysis of the panel data indicated that no single network of causal dominance may exist for males and females but did support Weiner's (1979) causal attribution theory in finding that locus of causality was causally predominant over self-concept.     

Investigating Leader Role Congruity and Counterproductive Work Behavior

The present study sought to examine the role of fulfilled vs. unfulfilled expectations in work-related and non-work domains. Specifically, we examined how congruence and incongruence between implicit leadership theories across multiple categories of leaders (typical, ideal, and effective leaders) and characteristics recognized on one’s supervisor affect leader-member exchange (LMX), work-family conflict, and subsequent counter-productive work behavior. We tested our hypotheses using polynomial regression and response surface modeling. The results of this study showed that congruence between implicit leadership theories (ILT’s) of typical, ideal, and effective leaders and supervisor recognition, as well as incongruity between ILT’s of ideal leaders and characteristics recognized in one’s supervisor, significantly impacts perceived LMX quality with supervisors. Incongruity between ILT’s of typical and ideal leaders and supervisor recognition was also associated with higher ratings of work-family conflict (WFC). Finally, the results showed support for a significant indirect effect of congruence between ILTs of typical and ideal leaders and characteristics recognized in one’s supervisor on CWB through WFC. These results add meaningful depth to literature on congruent implicit theories in two ways: (a) we add to existing knowledge of outcomes associated with congruence on ILT’s, and, (b) we examine these associations using ILT’s across multiple categories of leaders. Implications are also discussed.     

Bion and Tustin: The autistic phenomena

This article examines   the implications of the proposal of autistic transformations within the general context of Bion's theory of Transformations. The aim is to confirm the coherence of this proposal of autistic transformations within the overall structure of Bion's theory of Transformations. She examines the relation between emotional links and their negatives, particularly –K. She questions in which of the dimensions of the mind the autistic phenomena are located, the relation between autistic phenomena and beta elements, and where to place them in the Grid. The author tries to form metapsychological support for the incorporation of the autistic area in Bion's theory of Transformations. She argues that, despite the incongruence and imprecision of this incorporation, such autistic phenomena cannot be excluded from the complexus of the human mind and should therefore be accounted for in Bion's t ransformations . She discusses the idea that the theory of transformations includes the field of the neurosis and psychosis and deals with emotions, whereas the autistic area is dominated by sensations. The author asks how to add the autistic area to Bion's theory. Clinical material of a child for whom the non‐psychotic part of the personality predominates and who presents autistic nuclei provides material for the discussion.     

Retention of Implicit Sequence Learning in Persons Who Stutter and Persons With Parkinson's Disease

ABSTRACT. The authors investigated the retention of implicit sequence learning in 14 persons with Parkinson's disease (PPD), 14 persons who stutter (PWS), and 14 control participants. Participants completed a nonsense syllable serial reaction time task in a 120-min session. Participants named aloud 4 syllables in response to 4 visual stimuli. The syllables formed a repeating 8-item sequence not made known to participants. After 1 week, participants completed a 60-min retention session that included an explicit learning questionnaire and a sequence generation task. PPD showed retention of general learning equivalent to controls but PWS's reaction times were significantly slower on early trials of the retention test relative to other groups. Controls showed implicit learning during the initial session that was retained on the retention test. In contrast, PPD and PWS did not demonstrate significant implicit learning until the retention test suggesting intact, but delayed, learning and retention of implicit sequencing skills. All groups demonstrated similar limited explicit sequence knowledge. Performance differences between PWS and PPD relative to controls during the initial session and on early retention trials indicated possible dysfunction of the cortico-striato-thalamo-cortical loop. The etiological implications for stuttering, and clinical implications for both populations, of this dysfunction are discussed.     

The Efficiency of Skilled Performance

The observed ease or effort of performance has traditionally been considered an integral part of any definition of skill (e.g., Guthrie, 1935). Empirical investigations of skill learning and performance have, however, largely ignored the effort or efficiency with which the movement is performed. This situation has arisen despite the fact that in many skills, particularly athletic endurance events or industrial work tasks, efficiency of performance may be essential to the goal of the task. This paper focuses on the energy demand of various skills and its relationship to issues of learning, performance, and individual differences in preferred rhythm. It is shown that across a variety of tasks the individual’s freely chosen work-rate is the most efficient. The significance of preferred rhythm to theoretical perspectives on rhythmic activity is discussed.     

MOURNING,DREAMING, AND THE DISCOVERY OF THE OEDIPUS COMPLEX

The author argues that the structure of mourning and the structure of the Oedipus complex are triadic, the latter being obvious and easy to conceptualize, while the former is quite subtle. When it is the father who is mourned, the son must repeatedly invoke the dead object so that libidinal cathexis can be reinvested in living objects. Such was the situation in which Freud found himself in 1896 when his father died—the triadic nature of the Oedipus complex ironically not yet discovered by him. In the author's belief, Freud's mourning and his attendant rich dream life occurring between 1896 and 1897 gave him access to the unconscious raw material that would eventually help him conceptualize the triadic structure at the instinctual core of the Oedipus complex.