命题内容对青少年条件推理的影响

选取3个具体内容的条件命题作为实验材料,以小四、初一、高一、大三的学生为被试,探讨了命题内容对青少年条件推理的影响机制及其发展特点。结果表明:(1)对同一年级而言,不同内容的条件命题的相同推理(MP、MT、DA、AC)之间表现出显著的差异;对不同年级而言,相同内容的条件命题的四种推理之间也存在显著的差异。(2)青少年的条件推理过程似乎是一种基于对事件发生概率估计的直觉判断,这一判断过程主要取决于个体知识经验的增长和主体认知水平的提高,而用形式逻辑的标准来衡量个体条件推理能力的高低似乎并不妥当。     

Attractiveness and Facial Competence Bias Face‐Based Inferences of Candidate Ideology

Can voters infer candidates' political orientations from their faces? We report evidence that observers make systematic judgment errors, ascribing their own political views to attractive or competent‐looking candidates. Subjects judged headshot images of student candidates running in university elections (Experiment 1), as well as professional politicians from state election races in Germany (Experiment 2), according to whether the person(s) displayed held ideologically leftist or rightist views. While prediction accuracy was above chance level in both experiments, candidate attractiveness (Experiment 1) and perceived competence (Experiment 2) increased a subject's likelihood of attributing her political views to a candidate. These findings suggest that the value of face‐based inferences in choosing the candidate who best represents one's views is more limited than previously assumed. They also suggest that good looks may help extremist candidates in presenting themselves as more moderate.     

A judgement analysis of social perceptions of attitudes and ability

A judgement analysis of people's social inferences of attitudes and ability was conducted. University students were asked to infer the liberalness (N = 60; Study 1) or intelligence (N = 40; Study 2) of targets seen in pictures. Multiple regression analyses revealed that attractiveness was the most important cue for predicting inferences of liberalness, while an ethnic cue (i.e., being Asian) was the most important cue for judgements about intelligence. Results also showed that a single-cue model was less susceptible to overfitting, but significantly less accurate than a multiple-cue model in predicting participant's intelligence judgements. Although the multiple regression models suffered a degree of overfitting, cross validation showed that they continued to have significant predictive value when applied to new data. Furthermore, a “random partner” method (comparing each participant's own regression equation with that of another, randomly selected, participant) provided evidence of significant idiosyncratic variation in the way intelligence judgements were made.     

Getting one step closer to deduction: Introducing an alternative paradigm for transitive inference

Transitive inference is claimed to be “deductive”. Yet every group/species ever reported apparently uses it. We asked 58 adults to solve five-term transitive tasks, requiring neither training nor premise learning. A computer-based procedure ensured all premises were continually visible. Response accuracy and RT (non-discriminative nRT) were measured as is typically done. We also measured RT confined to correct responses (cRT). Overall, very few typical transitive phenomena emerged. The symbolic distance effect never extended to premise recall and was not at all evident for nRT; suggesting the use of non-deductive end-anchor strategies. For overall performance, and particularly the critical B?D inference, our findings indicate that deductive transitive inference is far more intellectually challenging than previously thought. Contrasts of our present findings against previous findings suggest at least two distinct transitive inference modes, with most research and most computational models to date targeting an associative mode rather than their desired deductive mode. This conclusion fits well with the growing number of theories embracing a “dual process” conception of reasoning. Finally, our differing findings for nRT versus cRT suggest that researchers should give closer consideration to matching the RT measure they use to the particular conception of transitive inference they pre-held.     

Abducted by Bayesians?

This paper discusses the role of theoretical notions in making predictions and evaluating statistical models. The core idea of the paper is that such theoretical notions can be spelt out in terms of priors over statistical models, and that such priors can themselves be assigned probabilities. The discussion substantiates the claim that the use of theoretical notions may offer specific empirical advantages. Moreover, I argue that this use of theoretical notions explicates a particular kind of abductive inference. The paper thus contributes to the discussion over Bayesian models of abductive inference.     

施动感研究的意向捆绑范式述评

施动感是自我意识的一个重要部分。意向捆绑即人的动作及动作的感觉结果两者的时间点主观上被感知为相互靠近的现象,为研究人类的施动感提供了一个重要的测量手段。本文综述意向捆绑的实验范式和认知机制,发现目前线索整合理论能最好的解释意向捆绑现象。意向捆绑的范式可以用于临床疾病和跨文化的研究。今后还应深入研究意向捆绑机制及意向捆绑与施动感的关系。     

因果变化模式与因果联结强度在幼儿因果推理中的作用

对93名幼儿进行了五种因果变化模式的因果推理题目的测试。结果表明:(1)在不同的因果变化模式下,被试进行因果推理的成绩存在差异,且在对于这五类题目的掌握上具有一定的顺序。(2)被试在同样因果变化模式题目的表现之间具有较高的相似性,而在因果联结强度相同的题目之间则具有显著的差异。(3)被试对于各题目回答的正确率并不随原因与结果联结次数的增多而提高。(4)即使是在观察到的刺激完全一致的情况下,被试的回答仍会因因果变化模式的差异及主试对于题目解释的不同而存在差别。     

4—6岁幼儿空间方位传递性推理能力的发展

该研究旨在探查4、5、6岁幼儿空间上下和前后方位传递性推理能力的发展水平及不同实验条件(一致、模糊、冲突)下儿童的传递性推理能力。为了尽量降低记忆对推理的影响,要求幼儿在前提呈现的条件下按前提方位关系进行传递性推理操作。被试为幼儿园4、5、6岁组儿童各24人,其中男女各半。主要结果表明：4岁幼儿开始萌发空间前后和上下方位的传递性推理能力;从4岁到6岁,“上下”方位传递性推理能力的发展优于“前后”方位;4—6岁幼儿还不能完全摆脱知觉干扰因素的影响,形成稳定的传递性推理能力。     

Transitive and pseudo-transitive inferences

Given that A is longer than B, and that B is longer than C, even 5-year-old children can infer that A is longer than C. Theories of reasoning based on formal rules of inference invoke simple axioms ("meaning postulates") to capture such transitive inferences. An alternative theory proposes instead that reasoners construct mental models of the situation described by the premises in order to draw such inferences. An unexpected consequence of the model theory is that if adult reasoners construct simple models of typical situations, then they should infer transitive relations where, in certain cases, none exists. We report four studies corroborating the occurrence of these "pseudo-transitive" fallacies. Experiment 1 established that individuals' diagrams of certain non-transitive relations yield transitive conclusions. Experiment 2 showed that these premises also give rise to fallacious transitive inferences. Experiment 3 established that when the context suggested alternatives to the simple models, the participants made fewer errors. Experiment 4 showed that tense is an important aspect of meaning which affects whether individuals draw transitive conclusions. We discuss the implications of these results for various theories of reasoning.     

A Model of Tolerance

According to the naive theory of vagueness, the vagueness of an expression consists in the existence of both positive and negative cases of application of the expression and in the non-existence of a sharp cut-off point between them. The sorites paradox shows the naive theory to be inconsistent in most logics proposed for a vague language. The paper explores the prospects of saving the naive theory by revising the logic in a novel way, placing principled restrictions on the transitivity of the consequence relation. A lattice-theoretical framework for a whole family of (zeroth-order) “tolerant logics” is proposed and developed. Particular care is devoted to the relation between the salient features of the formal apparatus and the informal logical and semantic notions they are supposed to model. A suitable non-transitive counterpart to classical logic is defined. Some of its properties are studied, and it is eventually shown how an appropriate regimentation of the naive theory of vagueness is consistent in such a logic.