Sticking to the Evidence? A Behavioral and Computational Case Study of Micro‐Theory Change in the Domain of Magnetism

Constructing an intuitive theory from data confronts learners with a “chicken‐and‐egg” problem: The laws can only be expressed in terms of the theory's core concepts, but these concepts are only meaningful in terms of the role they play in the theory's laws; how can a learner discover appropriate concepts and laws simultaneously, knowing neither to begin with? We explore how children can solve this chicken‐and‐egg problem in the domain of magnetism, drawing on perspectives from computational modeling and behavioral experiments. We present 4‐ and 5‐year‐olds with two different simplified magnet‐learning tasks. Children appropriately constrain their beliefs to two hypotheses following ambiguous but informative evidence. Following a critical intervention, they learn the correct theory. In the second study, children infer the correct number of categories given no information about the possible causal laws. Children's hypotheses in these tasks are explained as rational inferences within a Bayesian computational framework.     

Transitive and pseudo-transitive inferences

Given that A is longer than B, and that B is longer than C, even 5-year-old children can infer that A is longer than C. Theories of reasoning based on formal rules of inference invoke simple axioms ("meaning postulates") to capture such transitive inferences. An alternative theory proposes instead that reasoners construct mental models of the situation described by the premises in order to draw such inferences. An unexpected consequence of the model theory is that if adult reasoners construct simple models of typical situations, then they should infer transitive relations where, in certain cases, none exists. We report four studies corroborating the occurrence of these "pseudo-transitive" fallacies. Experiment 1 established that individuals' diagrams of certain non-transitive relations yield transitive conclusions. Experiment 2 showed that these premises also give rise to fallacious transitive inferences. Experiment 3 established that when the context suggested alternatives to the simple models, the participants made fewer errors. Experiment 4 showed that tense is an important aspect of meaning which affects whether individuals draw transitive conclusions. We discuss the implications of these results for various theories of reasoning.     

论达尔文的最佳解释推理

科学研究需要正确的思维方法的指导,而最佳解释推理就是一种重要的思维方法。达尔文运用最佳解释推理论证通过自然选择而进化的理论最为成功,在《物种起源》中,达尔文以解释力、解释的一致性为基础,引用大量事实,充分比较了自然选择理论与上帝的独立创造说或神创论,符合最佳解释推理模型的评价标准。     

A Model of Tolerance

According to the naive theory of vagueness, the vagueness of an expression consists in the existence of both positive and negative cases of application of the expression and in the non-existence of a sharp cut-off point between them. The sorites paradox shows the naive theory to be inconsistent in most logics proposed for a vague language. The paper explores the prospects of saving the naive theory by revising the logic in a novel way, placing principled restrictions on the transitivity of the consequence relation. A lattice-theoretical framework for a whole family of (zeroth-order) “tolerant logics” is proposed and developed. Particular care is devoted to the relation between the salient features of the formal apparatus and the informal logical and semantic notions they are supposed to model. A suitable non-transitive counterpart to classical logic is defined. Some of its properties are studied, and it is eventually shown how an appropriate regimentation of the naive theory of vagueness is consistent in such a logic.     

Utilisation des intervalles de confiance au lieu des tests de signification : aspects épistémologiques et pratiques

The use of confidence intervals instead of significance tests is strongly recommended by the fifth edition of the manual of the American Psychological Association (2001). This possibility as well as other improvements in statistical practice are discussed in the framework of the major theoretical options subtending statistical inference and the way they have been applied in psychology for about 50 years. First, the suggestion of a complete ban on statistical testing is examined and rejected. Next, a procedure consisting in measuring the fit of two competing models based on the likelihood ratio is judged interesting and commendable. Finally, the superiority of an approach based on confidence intervals instead of significance tests is assessed and illustrated by its application to an experimental study aiming to demonstrate the absence instead of the presence of an effect of the independent variable.     

不同语言理解能力中学生的主题推理特点

该研究使用移动视窗技术考察了初二和高一年级中的高低语言理解能力学生的主题推理加工特点。结果发现:(1)所有学生在无时间限制情况下,都能顺利完成语篇主题相似度判断,较低语言理解能力学生在阅读过程中不能进行有效主题推理;(2)较低语言理解能力被试在主题推理加工上的困难可能是由认知加工系统实时加工能力较差造成。     

Frege's Content-Principle and Relevant Deducibility

Given the harmony principle for logical operators, compositionality ought to ensure that harmony should obtain at the level of whole contents. That is, the role of a content qua premise ought to be balanced exactly by its role as a conclusion. Frege's contextual definition of propositional content happens to exploit this balance, and one appeals to the Cut rule to show that the definition is adequate.We show here that Frege's definition remains adequate even when one relevantizes logic by abandoning an unrestricted Cut rule. The proof exploits the fact that in the relevantized logic, which abandons the unrestricted rule of Cut, any failure of the transitivity of deduction is offset by the epistemic gain involved in learning that a stronger-than-expected result holds.     

System JLZ – rational default reasoning by minimal ranking constructions

We present a powerful quasi-probabilistic default formalism for graded defaults based on a well-motivated canonical ranking construction procedure, System JLZ. It implements the minimal construction paradigm and verifies the major inference principles and inheritance desiderata, including rational monotony for propositions and structured cumulativity for default conditionals. With help from a structured ranking semantics for defaults, it also avoids some drawbacks of semi-qualitative entropy maximization and other competing accounts.     

4～6岁儿童直接推理能力及策略的实验研究

采用定量与定性相结合的研究方法,对4－6岁儿童的直接推理能力进行了实验研究,结果表明：（1）学前儿童萌发了评议条件下的直接推理能力,但年龄发展效应并不明显;（2）对于学前儿童而言,否定前提下的直接推理并不比肯定前提的难。但是,如果进行了反义词的转换,同样的任务,却增加了肯定前提下直接推理的任务难度,而对否定前提下的直接堆理没有影响;（3）学前儿童在直接推理时多种策略并存,随着年龄的增长,有效策略的生成能力有了明显的提高,但有效策略的使用能力并没有与有效策略的生成能力同步发展,而是表现为落后的趋势。