A modified beta binomial model with applications to multiple choice and taste tests

A modified beta binomial model is presented for use in analyzing ramdom guessing multiple choice tests and certain forms of taste tests. Detection probabilities for each item are distributed beta across the population subjects. Properties for the observable distribution of correct responses are derived. Two concepts of true score estimates are presented. One, analogous to Duncan's empirical Bayes posterior mean score, is appropriate for assessing the subject's performance on that particular test. The second is more suitable for predicting outcomes on similar tests.This research was made possible by a grant from the Center for Food Policy Research, Graduate School of Business, Columbia University.     

THE CRY FOR THE OTHER: THE BIOCULTURAL WOMB OF HUMAN DEVELOPMENT

Abstract. The human experience of meaning-making lies at the roots of consciousness, creativity, and religious faith. It arises from the basic experience of separation from a loved object, suffered by all mammals, and, in general terms, from the experienced gap between ourselves and our environment. We fill the gap with transitional objects and symbols that reassure us of basic continuity in ourselves and in the world. These objects and symbols also serve the neurognostic function of demonstrating what the world is like. Thus, humanity lives by faith, as manifested in its pattern-making capacity, and not by literal sight.     

Understanding ‘Unlikely (20% Likelihood)’ or ‘20% Likelihood (Unlikely)’ Outcomes: The Robustness of the Extremity Effect

Calls to communicate uncertainty using mixed, verbal‐numerical formats (‘unlikely [0–33%]’) have stemmed from research comparing mixed with solely verbal communications. Research using the new ‘which outcome’ approach to investigate understanding of verbal probability expressions suggests, however, that mixed formats might convey disadvantages compared with purely numerical communications. When asked to indicate an outcome that is ‘unlikely’, participants have been shown to often indicate outcomes with a value exceeding the maximum value shown, equivalent to a 0% probability —an ‘extremity effect’. Recognising the potential consequences of communication recipients expecting an ‘unlikely’ event to never occur, we extend the ‘which outcome’ work across four experiments, using verbal, numerical, and verbal‐numerical communication formats, as well as a previously unconsidered numerical‐verbal format. We examine how robust the effect is in the context of consequential outcomes and over non‐normal distributions. We also investigate whether participants are aware of the inconsistency in their responses from a traditional ‘how likely’ and ‘which outcome’ task. We replicate and extend previous findings, with preference for extreme outcomes (including above maximum values) observed in both verbal and verbal‐numerical formats. Our results suggest caution in blanket usage of recently recommended verbal‐numerical formats for the communication of uncertainty. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The curse of knowledge: first language knowledge impairs adult learners' use of novel statistics for word segmentation

We investigated whether adult learners' knowledge of phonotactic restrictions on word forms from their first language impacts their ability to use statistical information to segment words in a novel language. Adults were exposed to a speech stream where English phonotactics and phoneme co-occurrence information conflicted. A control where these did not conflict was also run. Participants chose between words defined by novel statistics and words that are phonotactically possible in English, but had much lower phoneme contingencies. Control participants selected words defined by statistics while experimental participants did not. This result held up with increases in exposure and when segmentation was aided by telling participants a word prior to exposure. It was not the case that participants simply preferred English-sounding words, however, when the stimuli contained very short pauses, participants were able to learn the novel words despite the fact that they violated English phonotactics. Results suggest that prior linguistic knowledge can interfere with learners' abilities to segment words from running speech using purely statistical cues at initial exposure.     

Dangerous Transitions and the Traumatized Adolescent

One of the developmental tasks for the adolescent is to construct a new transitional space that leads to internal changes and adapts to the external world. When a nurturing matrix is unavailable, adolescents experience the entrance into the adult world as a dangerous transition. The author bases his arguments on psychoanalytic theories, mostly Winnicott's, and illustrates these with clinical material. He suggests that, even though these traumatized adolescents experienced nonfunctional transitional spaces, it is proven that they could be treated psychoanalytically. Here, the main task of the analyst is to establish a holding environment as a type of transference, resulting in less emphasis on interpretation of inner conflicts.     

Statistical frequency in perception affects children’s lexical production

Children’s early word production is influenced by the statistical frequency of speech sounds and combinations. Three experiments asked whether this production effect can be explained by a perceptual learning mechanism that is sensitive to word-token frequency and/or variability. Four-year-olds were exposed to nonwords that were either frequent (presented 10 times) or infrequent (presented once). When the frequent nonwords were spoken by the same talker, children showed no significant effect of perceptual frequency on production. When the frequent nonwords were spoken by different talkers, children produced them with fewer errors and shorter latencies. The results implicate token variability in perceptual learning.     

Eliciting Subjective Probabilities through Pair‐wise Comparisons

We propose and test a novel approach for eliciting subjective joint probabilities. In the proposed approach, judges compare pairs of possible outcomes and identify which of the two is more likely and by how much. These pair‐wise comparative judgments create a matrix of ratio judgments from which the target probabilities are extracted using the rows' (or columns') geometric means. In Study 1, subjects provided direct assessments of the likelihood of joint events (e.g., sunny days and stock market gains) and also made pair‐wise comparisons of the same joint events. Subjects in Study 2 learnt the distribution of hypothetical events pairs and provided direct and ratio estimates. In both studies, the ratio estimates were significantly more accurate than the direct estimates. The results suggest that it is possible to elicit probabilistic estimates without explictly asking for probabilities and that the pair‐wise approach is a candidate for complementing or replacing traditional elicitation approaches. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于属性掌握概率的认知诊断计算机化自适应测验选题策略

在认知诊断计算机化自适应测验(CD-CAT)中, 被试对每个属性的掌握概率更直接地反映了被试能力的当前估计值。因此, 基于被试的属性掌握概率来构建选题策略, 选择最能改变被试属性掌握概率的题目作为下一个测验项目, 这应该是一个值得尝试的方案。本文借鉴已有相关研究的数据生成模式进行探索, 模拟实验结果表明：假设属性间相互独立,在定长(长度为16)、变长(长度为16或后验属性掌握模式概率达到0.8)以及短测验(长度分别为4、6、8、10)的情况下, 基于属性掌握概率的选题策略PPWKL和PHKL有较好的分类准确率, 在题目曝光率, 题库使用均匀性等方面也有较好的表现; 与研究较多的PWKL、HKL等策略相比, 也略有优势; 当属性间存在不同程度的相关时, 在定长、变长以及较短的测验条件下, 基于PHKL和MI的测验对知识状态估计精度较好, 基于PPWKL和PHKL的测验综合表现占优。     

D. W. Winnicott,transitional objects and the creation of the divine

Religious expressions and religious behaviours are often considered to be mainly mental or spiritual phenomena, to a large degree divorced from or threatened by physical or material forms that may accompany their expression. This paper asks whether the diminution of the material or the condemnation of idols, icons and religious art loses sight of possible benefits that involvement with these forms of material divinity has for believers. Using the concept of transitional objects and transitional phenomena developed by D. W. Winnicott, a mid-twentieth-century psychoanalyst, I argue that idols, icons and religious art often represent transitional objects that form psychological bridges, intermediaries or anticipated “transitions” from humans to unseen divinities who require materialisation in some form to be maintained actively in the believer’s mind. In the process of creating or designing these material forms, the forms themselves often come to be considered “divine”. Illustrations are provided.