转换概率和词长期待对语音统计学习的影响

语音统计学习指个体在加工人工语言过程中, 可以追踪音节间的转换概率实现切分语流、提取词(语)的过程。本研究采用2(转换概率：高转换概率、低转换概率) × 2(词长期待：两音节、三音节)的混合实验设计来考察转换概率和词长期待对语音统计学习的影响, 转换概率是被试间变量, 词长期待是被试内变量。事后检验发现, 仅在低转换概率人工语言的三音节迫选条件下, 被试没有表现出显著的学习效果。事先对比发现, 在学习低转换概率的人工语言后, 被试完成三音节迫选试次的成绩显著低于两音节迫选试次; 在三音节迫选试次中, 学习低转换概率人工语言被试的成绩也显著低于学习高转换概率被试的成绩。以上结果说明, 转换概率和词长期待共同影响个体语音统计学习的效果。     

More than 50% or Less than 70% Chance: Pragmatic Implications of Single‐Bound Probability Estimates

Probability estimates can be given as ranges or uncertainty intervals, where often only one of the interval bounds (lower or upper) is specified. For instance, a climate forecast can describe La Niña as having “more than 70% chance” or “less than 90% chance” of occurring. In three experiments, we studied how research participants perceived climate‐related forecasts expressed with lower‐bound (“over X% chance”) or upper‐bound (“under Y% chance”) probability statements. Results indicate that such single‐bound statements give pragmatic information in addition to the numeric probabilities they convey. First, the studies show that these statements are directional, leading the listeners' attention in opposite directions. “Over” statements guide attention towards the possible occurrence of the event and are explained by reasons for why it might happen, while “under” statements direct attention to its possible non‐occurrence and are more often explained by reasons for why the target event might not appear, corresponding to positive (it is possible) versus negative (it is uncertain) verbal probabilities. Second, boundaries were found to reveal the forecaster's beliefs and could be perceived as indicative of an increasing or a decreasing trend. Single‐bound probability estimates are therefore not neutral communications of probability level but might “leak” information about the speaker's expectations and about past and future developments of the forecast. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Standing in Between: The Healing Praxis of Mayan Women Intermediaries in Post-Genocide Guatemala

ABSTRACT

This article examines how Mayan intermediaries make meaning of their roles in accompanying Mayan women survivors of gross violations of human rights as they search for truth, justice, and reparation in post-genocide Guatemala. Using a constructivist grounded theory approach, the authors analyzed in-depth interviews with six intermediaries who worked with survivors in the context of a seven year feminist participatory and action research project. The findings reveal that healing from the legacies of armed conflict as well as from historical racialized gendered oppression are at the core of Mayan intermediaries’ work with the Mayan women survivors with whom they established an intersubjective relationship, contributing to each other’s healing. The importance of economic justice for survivors’ healing and the scant and circumscribed talk about sexual violence—the grievance central to the work with most of the survivors—emerge as important findings of this study and require future exploration.     

Note on lexicographic‐order preservation and stochastic dominance

This note concerns two issues left unresolved in our study of lexicographic‐order preservation and stochastic dominance in settings where preferences are represented by utility vectors, ordered lexicographically, and judgements emerge as matrices that premultiply utility vectors in expected utility sums. First, a generalization of the ‘Conjecture Σ’, which implied transitivity of a stochastic dominance relation under non‐vacuous resolution‐level information, is proved. Second, this paper comments on using resolution‐level information in higher as well as in first degree stochastic dominance analysis. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Probability judgment accuracy for general knowledge. Cross-national differences and assessment methods

In this study we compare the probability judgment accuracy of subjects from the United States and Turkey. Three different response modes were employed — numerical probabilities, pie diagrams, and odds. The questions employed in the study were restricted to two-alternative, general-knowledge items. The observed pattern of differences in the components of probability judgment accuracy paralleled those of studies that have compared Western and Asian subjects. In particular, Turkish subjects exhibited better discrimination but worse calibration than their US counterparts. This result persisted across all three response modes. These findings lend support to previous assertions that observed cross-national differences arise from socioeconomic rather than Asian versus Western cultural differences. However, the consistency of the observed differences across response modes refutes a previous assertion that observed cultural differences are merely the result of response bias.     

The Quantitative/Qualitative Watershed for Rules of Uncertain Inference

We chart the ways in which closure properties of consequence relations for uncertain inference take on different forms according to whether the relations are generated in a quantitative or a qualitative manner. Among the main themes are: the identification of watershed conditions between probabilistically and qualitatively sound rules; failsafe and classicality transforms of qualitatively sound rules; non-Horn conditions satisfied by probabilistic consequence; representation and completeness problems; and threshold-sensitive conditions such as ‘preface’ and ‘lottery’ rules. Special Issue Formal Epistemology I. Edited by Branden Fitelson     

特征概率影响多维和少维类别的分类学习和特征学习

探讨了特征概率对多维和少维类别的分类学习和特征学习的效果及策略的影响。结果表明高特征概率条件下,多维比少维类别的分类学习更容易,而且学到更多的特征知识,多维条件下人们更倾向于整体性加工策略,而少维条件下人们倾向于分析性加工策略。低特征概率条件下,多维比少维类别的分类学习和特征学习都困难,且两种条件下人们都倾向于采取分析性加工策略。     

Waiting for the bus: when base-rates refuse to be neglected

The paper reports the results from 16 versions of a simple probability estimation task, where probability estimates derived from base-rate information have to be modified by case knowledge. In the bus problem [adapted from Falk, R., Lipson, A., & Konold, C. (1994). The ups and downs of the hope function in a fruitless search. In G. Wright & P. Ayton (Eds.), Subjective probability (pp. 353-377). Chichester, UK: Wiley], a passenger waits for a bus that departs before schedule in 10% of the cases, and is more than 10 min delayed in another 10%. What are Fred's chances of catching the bus on a day when he arrives on time and waits for 10 min? Most respondents think his probability is 10%, or 90%, instead of 50%, which is the correct answer. The experiments demonstrate the difficulties people have in replacing the original three-category 1/8/1 partitioning with a normalized, binary partitioning, where the middle category is discarded. In contrast with typical studies of "base-rate neglect", or under-weighing of base-rates, this task demonstrates a reversed base-rate fallacy, where frequentistic information is overextended and case information ignored. Possible explanations for this robust phenomenon are briefly discussed.     

Winnicott and Derrida: development of logic-of-play

In this essay I develop the logic of play from the writings of the British psychoanalyst Donald W. Winnicott and the French philosopher Jacques Derrida. The logic of play serves as both a conceptual framework for theoretical clinical thinking and a space of experiencing in which the therapeutic situation is located and to which it aspires. I argue that both Winnicott and Derrida proposed a playful turn in Western thinking by their attitude towards oppositions, viewing them not as complementary or contradictory, but as 'peacefully-coexisting'. Derrida criticizes the dichotomous structure of Western thought, proposing playful movement as an alternative that does not constitute itself as a mastering construction. I will show that Winnicott, too, proposes playful logic through which he thinks and acts in the therapeutic situation. The therapeutic encounter is understood as a playful space in which analyst and analysand continuously coexist, instead of facing each other as exclusionary oppositions. I therefore propose the logic of play as the basis for the therapeutic encounter. The playful turn, then, is crucial for the thought and praxis expressed by the concept of two-person psychology. I suggest the term playful psychoanalysis to characterize the present perspective of psychoanalysis in the light of the playful turn. I will first present Derrida's playful thought, go on to Winnicott's playful revolutionism, and conclude with an analysis of Winicott's clinical material in the light of the logic of play.