Methodological Challenges in Causal Research on Racial and Ethnic Patterns of Cognitive Trajectories: Measurement, Selection, and Bias

Research focused on understanding how and why cognitive trajectories differ across racial and ethnic groups can be compromised by several possible methodological challenges. These difficulties are especially relevant in research on racial and ethnic disparities and neuropsychological outcomes because of the particular influence of selection and measurement in these contexts. In this article, we review the counterfactual framework for thinking about causal effects versus statistical associations. We emphasize that causal inferences are key to predicting the likely consequences of possible interventions, for example in clinical settings. We summarize a number of common biases that can obscure causal relationships, including confounding, measurement ceilings/floors, baseline adjustment bias, practice or retest effects, differential measurement error, conditioning on common effects in direct and indirect effects decompositions, and differential survival. For each, we describe how to recognize when such biases may be relevant and some possible analytic or design approaches to remediating these biases.     

Regularized Finite Mixture Models for Probability Trajectories

Finite mixture models are widely used in the analysis of growth trajectory data to discover subgroups of individuals exhibiting similar patterns of behavior over time. In practice, trajectories are usually modeled as polynomials, which may fail to capture important features of the longitudinal pattern. Focusing on dichotomous response measures, we propose a likelihood penalization approach for parameter estimation that is able to capture a variety of nonlinear class mean trajectory shapes with higher precision than maximum likelihood estimates. We show how parameter estimation and inference for whether trajectories are time-invariant, linear time-varying, or nonlinear time-varying can be carried out for such models. To illustrate the method, we use simulation studies and data from a long-term longitudinal study of children at high risk for substance abuse. This work was supported in part by NIAAA grants R37 AA07065 and R01 AA12217 to RAZ.     

词汇习得年龄效应的研究进展

近年来的大量研究表明,词汇习得的年龄是影响词汇加工的一个重要因素。本文首先阐述了词汇习得年龄效应产生的可能机制,包括语音完整性假设、累计频率假设、任意映射假设和语义假设,然后介绍近年来研究的最新动向,并提出了需要进一步研究的问题。     

亲子和同伴依恋对初中生心理素质发展的影响:个人中心分析视角

本研究旨在考察初中生心理素质的发展轨迹以及亲子和同伴依恋对其的影响。三所中学的442名初一学生和501名初二学生参加了三轮追踪调查,初测平均年龄M =12.83,SD =0.74。结果发现,初一学生,心理素质发展轨迹可分为中-降组（79%）和高-升组（21%）两个亚群组;且初一上父子依恋或母子依恋水平越高,心理素质发展轨迹为高-升组的概率大于中-降组。初二学生,心理素质发展轨迹可分为低-稳组（84%）和高-升组（16%）两个亚群组;且初二上父子依恋水平越高,心理素质发展轨迹为高-升组的概率大于低-稳组。结果表明初中生心理素质发展轨迹可以分为不同的亚群组类型,父子依恋和母子依恋对初中生心理素质发展有积极作用,这些发现对于初中生心理素质的培养具有一定的指导意义。     

多变量追踪研究的模型整合与拓展：考察往复式影响与增长趋势

追踪研究当中, 交叉滞后模型可以探究多变量之间往复式影响, 潜增长模型可以探究个体增长趋势。对两类模型进行整合, 例如同时关注往复式影响与个体增长趋势, 同时可以定义测量误差、随机截距等变异成分, 衍生出随机截距交叉滞后模型、特质-状态-误差模型、自回归潜增长模型、结构化残差潜增长模型等。以交叉滞后模型和潜增长模型分别作为基础模型, 从个体间/个体内变异分解的角度对上述各类模型梳理, 整合出此类模型的分析框架, 并拓展建立“因子结构化潜增长模型(factor latent curve model with structured reciprocals)”作为统合框架。通过实证研究(早期儿童的追踪研究-幼儿园版, ECLS-K), 建立21049名儿童的阅读和数学能力的往复式影响与增长趋势。研究发现, 分离了稳定特质的模型拟合最优。研究也对模型建模思路和模型选择提供了建议。     

Fine motor skill proficiency in typically developing children: On or off the maturation track?

Fine motor skill proficiency is an essential component of numerous daily living activities such as dressing, feeding or playing. Poor fine motor skills can lead to difficulties in academic achievement, increased anxiety and poor self-esteem. Recent findings have shown that children’s gross motor skill proficiency tends to fall below established developmental norms. A question remains: do fine motor skill proficiency levels also fall below developmental norms? The aim of this study was to examine the current level of fine motor skill in Irish children. Children (N = 253) from 2nd, 4th and 6th grades (mean age = 7.12, 9.11 and 11.02 respectively) completed the Fine Motor Composite of the Bruininks Oseretsky Test of Motor Proficiency 2nd Edition (BOT-2). Analysis revealed that only 2nd grade children met the expected level of fine motor skill proficiency. It was also found that despite children’s raw scores improving with age, children’s fine motor skill proficiency was not progressing at the expected rate given by normative data. This leads us to question the role and impact of modern society on fine motor skills development over the past number of decades.     

Short-term and long-term relationships between reflection and performance in teams: evidence from a four-wave longitudinal study

Previous theory and research suggest that team reflection is beneficial for team performance. We argue that results remain inconclusive because prior studies have not accounted for the dynamic nature of this relationship. This paper addresses this research gap by examining time-specific relationships among variables and the intra-team variability of changes across time. In a four-wave longitudinal field study with 97 teams (N = 453 team members) performing a business simulation task, short-term (i.e., autoregressive, cross-lagged effects) and long-term (i.e., latent trajectories) relationships between team reflection and performance were explored. We found evidence that reflection had negative autoregressive effects and that there were direct positive short-term relationships between reflection and performance. Reflection trajectories were seen to decline across time and performance trajectories to increase across time. In addition, teams with either low initial reflection or low initial performance showed higher increases in reflection across time, whilst higher increase in reflection was negatively related to change in performance. Findings are discussed with respect to how they extend the previous literature and what directions they suggest for future research.     

经验取样法——一种收集“真实”数据的新方法

经验取样法是一种有效的密集纵向研究数据收集方法。该方法的优点正逐渐被广大研究者所认同,国外运用经验取样法取得的研究成果越来越多,而国内学者对经验取样法的研究尚处于探索阶段,运用此方法的实证研究更是凤毛麟角。通过对《应用心理学期刊》(Journal of Applied Psychology)最近5年(2010~2014年)发表的26篇采用经验取样法的实证研究论文的内容分析,发现这些文章全面体现了经验取样法的特点、研究内容、样本量、激励方式、数据收集和操作过程等该方法的操作要素。对其进行总结不仅有利于对经验取样法在组织行为学中的应用状况进行总结,而且也能促进这一方法在未来的组织行为学和人力资源管理中的发展和应用。     

Computational Evidence That Frequency Trajectory Theory Does Not Oppose But Emerges From Age‐of‐Acquisition Theory

According to the age‐of‐acquisition hypothesis, words acquired early in life are processed faster and more accurately than words acquired later. Connectionist models have begun to explore the influence of the age/order of acquisition of items (and also their frequency of encounter). This study attempts to reconcile two different methodological and theoretical approaches (proposed by Lambon Ralph & Ehsan, 2006 and Zevin & Seidenberg, 2002 ) to age‐limited learning effects. The current simulations extend the findings reported by Zevin and Seidenberg (2002) that have shown that frequency trajectories (FTs) have limited and specific effects on word‐reading tasks. Using the methodological framework proposed by Lambon Ralph and Ehsan (2006) , which makes it possible to compare word‐reading and picture‐naming tasks in connectionist networks, we were able to show that FT has a considerable influence on age‐limited learning effects in a picture naming task. The findings show that when the input–output mappings are arbitrary (simulating picture naming tasks), the links formed by the network become entrenched as a result of early experience and that subsequent variations in frequency of exposure of the items have only a minor impact. In contrast, when the mappings between input‐output are quasi‐systematic or systematic (simulating word‐reading tasks), the training of new items was generalized and resulted in the suppression of age‐limited learning effects. At a theoretical level, we suggest that FT, which simultaneously takes account of time and the level of exposure across time, represents a more precise and modulated measure compared with the order of introduction of the items and may lead to innovative hypotheses in the field of age‐limited learning effects.     

国内追踪数据分析方法研究与模型发展

追踪研究因其可以得到比横断研究更有说服力的变量关系论证, 在心理学等科学中具有重要地位。梳理国内以心理学为主的相关领域中追踪数据分析方法研究的发表现状、主要解决的研究问题和模型发展。追踪研究可以进行均值差异比较、分析多变量相互影响、描述总体发展趋势及差异和探究心理动态变化过程。近20年的研究热点和发展思路也集中在上述研究问题当中, 特别是总体发展趋势及差异、多变量相互影响、总体发展趋势与多变量相互影响的融合、追踪研究设计、缺失数据等议题上。最后, 比较国内外研究的差异, 并结合交叉学科对国内追踪研究未来发展做出展望。