老年人恶性肿瘤诊疗中的决策

恶性肿瘤已成为严重威胁老年人健康的疾病,而且其发生率还呈逐渐上升的趋势。如何处理好老年医学和肿瘤学的交叉问题,对老年人恶性肿瘤患者选择适当的诊疗方法,对减轻老年患者的痛苦,延长老年患者的生存时间具有重要意义。     

Discourse-mediation of the mapping between language and the visual world: Eye movements and mental representation

Two experiments explored the mapping between language and mental representations of visual scenes. In both experiments, participants viewed, for example, a scene depicting a woman, a wine glass and bottle on the floor, an empty table, and various other objects. In Experiment 1, participants concurrently heard either ‘The woman will put the glass on the table’ or ‘The woman is too lazy to put the glass on the table’. Subsequently, with the scene unchanged, participants heard that the woman ‘will pick up the bottle, and pour the wine carefully into the glass.’ Experiment 2 was identical except that the scene was removed before the onset of the spoken language. In both cases, eye movements after ‘pour’ (anticipating the glass) and at ‘glass’ reflected the language-determined position of the glass, as either on the floor, or moved onto the table, even though the concurrent (Experiment 1) or prior (Experiment 2) scene showed the glass in its unmoved position on the floor. Language-mediated eye movements thus reflect the real-time mapping of language onto dynamically updateable event-based representations of concurrently or previously seen objects (and their locations).     

Structural equations and causation: six counterexamples

Hall [(2007), Philosophical Studies, 132, 109–136] offers a critique of structural equations accounts of actual causation, and then offers a new theory of his own. In this paper, I respond to Hall’s critique, and present some counterexamples to his new theory. These counterexamples are then diagnosed.

The fine-grained metaphysics of artifactual and biological functional kinds

In this paper we consider the emerging position in metaphysics that artifact functions characterize real kinds of artifacts. We analyze how it can circumvent an objection by David Wiggins (Sameness and substance renewed, 2001, 87) and then argue that this position, in comparison to expert judgments, amounts to an interesting fine-grained metaphysics: taking artifact functions as (part of the) essences of artifacts leads to distinctions between principles of activity of artifacts that experts in technology have not yet made. We show, moreover, that our argument holds not only in the artifactual realm but also in biology: taking biological functions as (part of the) essences of organs leads to distinctions between principles of activity of organs that biological experts have not yet made. We run our argument on the basis of analyses of artifact and biological functions as developed in philosophy of technology and of biology, thus importing results obtained outside of metaphysics into the debate on ontological realism. In return, our argument shows that a position in metaphysics provides experts reason for trying to detect differences between principles of activities of artifacts and organs that have not been detected so far.     

汉代教化与劝农政策略论

在农官制度相对比较完备的基础上,汉代帝王亲耕,地方官吏劝勉农桑,乡里社会选拔“力田”助成重农风气,从中央到地方的劝农政策,都闪烁着教化的光彩。汉廷通过宏观调控确定农业发展的大方向,具体细则由地方官吏自主制定,其内容是国家劝农务本的宏观政策的具体化和优化,往往因地、因时制宜,百姓易于接受。地方官吏作为汉政府的代表,躬劝农耕,具有比较大的号召力,会收到良好的效果。百姓安居乐业,有利于社会稳定,进一步为国家政策的顺利实施创造了更好的条件,形成一种良性循环。     

《管子》与汉初法制重构

《管予》渊源于齐文化,法制思想以礼、法并重为特色,齐用之而为东方大国;秦用商、韩之法迅速强大并统一六国,但秦法严苛激进,任法而废礼,致秦二世而亡。汉承秦之弊,在历史与现实中寻求适合自己发展的道路,于偶然,也是必然中选择了礼法并重的《管子》法制思想作为治国方略,史称黄老政治,使国家逐步实现了稳定与繁荣,并开创了二千多年的秦汉制度。     

晚清管子研究述论

晚清以降。诸子学走向复兴。作为其中重要一支,《管子》一书也摆脱以往“德主刑辅”、“以子证经、史”的边缘地位,受到广大士人、学者的关注。大致而言,晚清的管子研究经历了“通子致用”、“援西释管”和“改塑管子”三个阶段,逐渐完成了由古典向近代的学术嬗变。     

不同概率表征的贝叶斯推理试题形式结构的同质性研究

研究从先验概率、概率表征、推理任务等方面探讨了经典贝叶斯推理研究中存在的不足,试图在＂知识和试题双重模型＂框架下,探索现实和标准贝叶斯试题的形式结构的同质性,结果表明：1）自然频次表征比百分比表征的贝叶斯推算题正确率高,这是因为试题的形式结构不同,与概率表征无关;2）贝叶斯判断题与贝叶斯推算题的试题形式结构存在显著差异;3）贝叶斯推算题中,概率词表征与其它两种表征的试题形式结构存在显著差异,其实质是贝叶斯判断。     

How strong is the comparison‐to‐the‐strongest heuristic?: An empirical test of the comparison‐ to‐the‐strongest heuristic in probability judgment1,2

Abstract: Windschitl and Wells (1998 ) proposed that the pairwise comparison between the focal and strongest alternative outcomes plays an important role in probability judgment. However, their studies did not control the effects of alternative outcomes other than the strongest one. This article tested whether only the strongest alternative outcome would affect probability judgment, using a variable selection method in a multiple regression analysis. Study 1 reanalyzed the results of Windschitl and Young (2001 ) and showed that only the strongest alternative outcome affects probability judgment. In Study 2, a new experiment was conducted to modify the methodological problems in Study 1. The results of Study 2 were identical to those of Study 1. All these results consistently supported the comparison hypothesis.     

Identifying Variables Responsible for Data not Missing at Random

When data are not missing at random (NMAR), maximum likelihood (ML) procedure will not generate consistent parameter estimates unless the missing data mechanism is correctly modeled. Understanding NMAR mechanism in a data set would allow one to better use the ML methodology. A survey or questionnaire may contain many items; certain items may be responsible for NMAR values in other items. The paper develops statistical procedures to identify the responsible items. By comparing ML estimates (MLE), statistics are developed to test whether the MLEs are changed when excluding items. The items that cause a significant change of the MLEs are responsible for the NMAR mechanism. Normal distribution is used for obtaining the MLEs; a sandwich-type covariance matrix is used to account for distribution violations. The class of nonnormal distributions within which the procedure is valid is provided. Both saturated and structural models are considered. Effect sizes are also defined and studied. The results indicate that more missing data in a sample does not necessarily imply more significant test statistics due to smaller effect sizes. Knowing the true population means and covariances or the parameter values in structural equation models may not make things easier either. The research was supported by NSF grant DMS04-37167, the James McKeen Cattell Fund.